It's an all north-west affair as Tranmere, sans the sacked Keith Hill, host Morecambe in the League Two play-offs. Michael Beardmore has best bets and a preview.
Football betting tips: Tranmere v Morecambe
1pt Morecambe to win and BTTS 13/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Carlos Mendes Gomes to score first at 17/2 (Bet365)
0.5pt Yann Songo’o to score anytime at 18/1 (Bet365)
There’s no easy way of poring through 35 years of play-off history to work out how many teams have sacked their manager right before the post-season lottery.
But common sense tells you that number must be small.
That, however, is the gamble Tranmere Rovers have taken, dispensing with the services of Keith Hill despite the former Rochdale and Bolton boss guiding them to seventh place.
In truth, Rovers won just two of their final 11 games to drop out of automatic promotion contention and limp into the play-offs, scoring just seven times in that run, but it’s a gamble nonetheless.
There is no such disquiet at Derek Adams’ Morecambe, into the League Two play-offs for only the second time since their 2007 promotion from non-league as they bid to reach the third tier for the first time in their history.
Had Hill, who had adopted a defensive approach after being deprived of the services of leading scorer James Vaughan for several weeks, still been in charge, I would have backed this semi-final to be tight and low-scoring.
Instead, caretaker pair Ian Dawes and Andy Parkinson return, having presided over a five-game spell in November, prior to Hill’s appointment, that featured 20 goals.
With Morecambe sitting second in the League Two table for average goals per game (2.76), I fancy this to be the more open and end-to-end of the two semi-finals.
I’m slightly surprised to see Morecambe second favourites for this first leg, given they finished five points and three places above Tranmere – I thought it would be around 6/4 apiece despite home advantage.
The 2/1+ you can get on a Shrimps win is attractive but my eye was caught by the Sky Bet boost on MORECAMBE TO WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at 13/2.
That eventuality has happened in 12 of Morecambe’s 46 league games this season – more than 25% of their matches – which makes that price look very appealing. They are more a 2-1 team than a 1-0.
Read Sporting Life's Sky Bet EFL play-offs outright previews
Speaking of the Shrimps’ 46 league matches, they failed to score in a ridiculously low seven of those, making them the most regular scorers in League Two, so they should find the net here, but via who?
Now, their goals have been spread around 16 players but it’s CARLOS MENDES GOMES who leads the way on 15 and the Spaniard is a whopping 17/2 TO SCORE FIRST at Tranmere with Bet365.
That can only be due to his recent toe injury but the sprightly wide man was deemed fit enough to start in Morecambe’s final game against Bradford as the Shrimps won but fell a point short of automatic promotion.
Tranmere’s Vaughan heads the scoring betting and, if starting, he’s one to strongly consider having scored 18 goals in 29 league games but he’s been used sparingly recently and appears not fully fit.
I prefer to have Mendes Gomes onside and there’s another Morecambe value play available in the shape of YANN SONGO’O TO SCORE ANYTIME at 18/1, again with Bet365.
It’s a huge price given the Cameroonian midfielder has scored four times in his past eight games and has been averaging 1.5 shots per game over the past three months.
Tranmere v Morecambe score prediction and best bets
- 1pt Morecambe to win and BTTS 13/2 (Sky Bet)
- 0.5pt Carlos Mendes Gomes to score first at 17/2 (Bet365)
- 0.5pt Yann Songo’o to score anytime at 18/1 (Bet365)
Score prediction: Tranmere 1-2 Morecambe (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct 2100 BST (14/05/21)
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