Carlos Carvalhal: Owls going up?

Sky Bet traders on the 2017/18 EFL Championship, League One and League Two seasons

Football

Fri August 04, 2017 · 7y ago

We get the opinions - and best bets - of the Sky Bet football traders ahead of the new EFL season.

The new EFL season starts on Friday night with two matches in the Sky Bet Championship. Nottingham Forest host Millwall and Sunderland tackle Derby, live on Sky Sports, at the Stadium of Light.

Sky Bet have a host of odds available for the Championship, League One and League Two, including 2017/18 RequestABets for all 72 EFL clubs.

We've got the verdict from Sky Bet's James Barwick, Sandro Di Michele, Daniel Moorhouse and Mikey Mumford on all three divisions as the EFL sponsors prepare for the 2017/18 campaign.

Aston Villa and Middlesbrough head the Sky Bet Championship promotion odds. Are they the duo to back or is there a more tempting option elsewhere?

James Barwick: Middlesbrough have invested heavily in their quest for a quick return to the top flight. They have improved the squad with a mixture of youth and experience and have so far kept the spine of the team which achieved promotion the season before last. Nevertheless, they are notorious for being very slow to get over the line towards the end of a season and I believe a play-off spot may be a more realistic target this season, so 2/1 for promotion could be a decent bet. Aston Villa have also added to their squad. However, I do believe the defensive signings in John Terry and Chris Samba may quickly get found out for pace at the back. I can see Villa conceding more goals than some might think. Jonathan Kodjia will get goals but I feel they need another striker to support him in the goalscoring department with Scott Hogan not quite cutting it as yet.

Sandro Di Michele: I will be looking away from the front two in the market as I believe Villa have defensive issues, primarily a lack of pace, and there has been a high turnover of players at Boro. Garry Monk has signed fairly well, even though they’ve overpaid, but new signings and a new manager takes time to gel, time that you aren’t given in the Sky Bet Championship. Therefore, I really like Sheffield Wednesday - a club who have been knocking on the door of promotion for a couple of seasons now, but have great stability. Carlos Carvahal has added quality to an already-excellent squad and with an abundance of top-quality strikers, I can’t look past them at 10/1. I also expect them to add more defensive cover before the window closes.

Daniel Moorhouse: Villa have added plenty of experience through the likes of John Terry, Christopher Samba, Glenn Whelan and Ahmed Elmohamady but I still fancy Boro over them. Last season’s relegation for Boro was ultimately down to a lack of goals but new manager Garry Monk has taken plenty of steps to fix this by signing an abundance of strikers. The club broke its record transfer fee with the £15million move for proven Championship scorer Britt Assombalonga. They have also invested more money in Ashley Fletcher from West Ham and Martin Braithwaite, who has a decent scoring record in France. Along with current forwards Rudy Gestede and Patrick Bamford, Boro should have plenty of firepower to see them challenge for the title.

Which side provides the each-way value to challenge at the top of the Sky Bet Championship?

JB: Another team I also like this season is Sheffield Wednesday. They have a squad of players full of Championship experience who will be more motivated than ever to get the team back up to the Premier League. If they can find a bit more consistency in their results this season I can't see a reason why they shouldn't be challenging for promotion again. They will also want to avoid the play-offs so Sky Bet’s four places may be a value bet in the outright winner market each-way at 10/1.

SDM: As previously stated, I’m very keen on Sheffield Wednesday's chances and I fully expect both Villa and Boro to finish in the top six. Nothing else at the top of the market jumps out to me and I’d be more interested in finding an angle with the likes of Brentford, Birmingham and Sheffield United who could have big seasons at far more attractive prices.

DM: Towards the end of last season, Wolves ranked impressively in shot data and have some undoubted quality in midfield. They also boast impressive new signings from some of Europe’s heavyweight clubs, including Ruben Neves and Diogo Jota on loan from Atletico Madrid. New managerial appointment Nuno has also brought in other players from his previous clubs such as defenders Roderick Miranda and Willy Boly. If the new manager and players can adapt quickly to life in the Championship it could be a successful season for Wolves, who can be backed at 10/3 for promotion.

Who do you think will be struggling at the wrong end of the standings?

JB: It could potentially be a struggle this season for Mick McCarthy’s Ipswich. They are working on a tight budget down at Portman Road and have recently been beaten by Gillingham and thrashed 6-1 by Charlton in pre-season. The Tractor Boys only finished four points above the relegation zone last season in 16th and I can't see this term being any better. They are rightly fourth in the betting for relegation at 5/2.

Mick McCarthy

SDM: Burton are clear favourites for relegation but they have acquired well again with the likes of Jake Buxton, Stephen Warnock and Luke Murphy joining Nigel Clough's side. Barnsley’s policy of selling their best talent will have to catch up with them at some point and Ipswich will be in for another tough season. At a slightly bigger price, I think Nottingham Forest will be in for a very long, tough season especially with the loss of Britt Assombalonga to Boro and at 11/2 for relegation, they could be worth some interest.

DM: After confirming safety last season, QPR lost seven out of their last eight matches. Luke Freeman and Matt Smith have made last season’s loan deals permanent, but beside these two QPR have made only one new addition to their squad so far this window with Josh Scowen joining on a free. Ian Holloway’s squad has the third youngest average age in the division and I can only see this inexperienced team being involved in a relegation battle. Sky Bet offer 3/1 about QPR to be relegated.

There’s a huge selection of Sky Bet Championship odds available with the EFL sponsors. Give us your best bet…

JB: Britt Assombalonga at 8/1 for top scorer could be a good bet when it comes to the end of the season. He will now lead the line for Middlesbrough after a big-money move over the summer from Nottingham Forest although the big question mark is if he can stay fit for a full season

SDM: The range of specials is incredible and for those of you that like a big-priced bet, how about predicting the four teams that fill the play-off spots? I quite fancy Villa, Derby, Boro and Sheffield United to be vying for a trip to Wembley at the end of the season at a whopping 500/1! If you want the other end of the spectrum, I would have to say Sheffield Wednesday to win the Sky Bet Championship at 9/1 and the each-way four places is a very good bet.

DM: Chris Wood to finish as top goalscorer as an each-way bet at 9/1. This gives you 9/4 on Wood to place in the top four. Leeds have brought in plenty of new faces but expect Wood to still be the main man up top after he found the back of the net 27 times last season, winning him the Golden Boot by four clear goals.

Relegated pair Blackburn and Wigan are the favourites to go straight back up from Sky Bet League One. Should they be backed or is there better value elsewhere in the market?

SDM: Both look too short for me to get involved as there are a lot of question marks about them. Blackburn have done very well in acquiring the services of Peter Whittingham, who should absolutely run the show at the this level, and Bradley Dack is also a good signing. However, defensively they look vulnerable and Charlie Mulgrew could well leave before the transfer window closes. Wigan also concern me with the impending departure of Omar Bogle and with both clubs at prices of 4/1 and 7/1 I will look elsewhere. Fleetwood, who had a great season under Uwe Rosler last time out, and have bought well this summer look a very interesting each-way bet at 20/1 and would be my tip at the prices.

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Mikey Mumford: Of the two, Blackburn look better placed than Wigan for an instant return to the Championship. Tony Mowbray has lost only three of his 15 games in charge at Ewood Park and too many draws proved his side’s downfall towards the end of the season. Confidence must be high in Lancashire when fans think of what could be achieved over a full campaign. We opened at 7/1 Blackburn for the title but that quickly went and they are now into 4/1 on the back of key signings Peter Whittingham, Bradley Dack from Gillingham and QPR’s Ben Gladwin, who all should be more than capable in the third tier.

What’s the top selection from any Sky Bet League One market for the new campaign?

SDM: Fleetwood (+14) on the handicap.

MM: Northampton could be the way to play it on the season handicap getting around 16 points. Justin Edinburgh’s side have been proactive in the transfer window and the signings of Aaron Pierre, who was on trial at Bristol City, Matt Crooks and Chris Long should bring joy to Cobblers fans. Cash looks readily available since Chinese investors - Guangzhou-based 5USport - purchased a big stake in the club and they might have been underestimated a little in the market. Similarly, Fleetwood have been shown little respect after a most impressive term under Uwe Rosler last term. The only worry would be the German jumping ship if suitors come calling from the Championship.

Who do you reckon should be supported to go up from Sky Bet League Two?

SDM: I’m sure many a punter has been stung by Luton over previous seasons, but I firmly believe this is their time. Manager Nathan Jones has rejected the advances of League One Wigan to stay at Kenilworth Road and he has added quality to an already-strong squad that narrowly missed out to play-off winners Blackpool over two legs of incredible football in May. The addition of James Collins from Crawley fresh off the back of scoring 20 league goals last season could be the game-changer.

MM: Luton Town have four strikers in Danny Hylton, James Collins, Elliot Lee and Isaac Vassell who would be regular starters in any other League Two side. It was very unlike Nathan Jones’ men to ship six goals over two legs in last season’s play-off semi-final and they’ve managed to keep hold of the majority of the squad that finished fourth, bar Cameron McGeehan. The mood around Kenilworth Road was that the midfielder would have hit 20-plus goals last term had it not been for a season-ending injury and his loss to Barnsley is huge. However, his replacement Andrew Shinnie was highly thought of at Inverness a few years ago and if he can put a disappointing spell at Birmingham behind him, he looks an adept alternative. Alan McCormack’s experience in midfield will be vital too and they have a squad to rival well-fancied Mansfield, who have signed well but might take time to gel. Luton can get a head start on their rivals and 6/1 for the title looks more than generous.

To complete the set, give us a Sky Bet League Two tip for the new season.

SDM: Luton 9/4 for a top-three finish.

MM: Stevenage getting 19 points on the handicap looks a good bet after they narrowly missed out on a play-off position last term. Watch out for Grimsby’s Sam Jones (25/1) in the top goalscorer market - he’s been taking penalties in pre-season and scored seven in 18 games after January, playing a little more advanced he might trouble the likes of James Collins and John Akinde for the leading marksman award.

Posted at 0710 BST on 02/08/17.