Football betting tips: Premier League, EFL, Scottish Premiership
Boxing Day - 12:30
1pt Over 11.5 corners in Hearts vs Hibernian at 6/4 (bet365)
Boxing Day - 15:00
1pt Over 2.5 goals in Middlesbrough vs Sheff Weds, Watford vs Portsmouth, Bolton vs Barnsley & Walsall vs Doncaster at 9.62/1 (William Hill)
1pt Max Kilman to score anytime in Southampton vs West Ham at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Southampton 14+ fouls committed vs West Ham at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
1pt Tottenham 7+ corners vs Nottingham Forest at 8/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Boxing Day - 20:00
1pt Ao Tanaka to score anytime in Stoke vs Leeds at 13/2 (General)
It's the best day on the football calendar.
Boxing Day transforms your usual boring Thursday into a day of binge-watching every single bit of sport you can take with Amazon and Sky broadcasting basically every game for you to enjoy.
It's easy to get carried away in it all though, so as Neil Warnock famously said "enjoy it, but, enjoy it by being disciplined..."
With it being a Thursday - a nice reminder for you there as nobody really knows what day it actually is at this time of year - the column has been rebranded to a Boxing Day special because, you know, it's not the weekend.
There's no opportunity to go around Europe this time around as we focus on the vast Premier League, EFL and Scottish action served up for us.
Hearts vs Hibernian
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Thursday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 23/20 | Draw 12/5 | Away 11/5
An Edinburgh derby to kick off our Boxing Day? I'll certainly take it.
Hearts host Hibernian with both sides seeing largely poor campaigns so far. For the hosts, they've just had to get over an embarrassing Europa Conference League campaign in which they failed to qualify out of the group.
They bounced back with a 2-1 victory over St. Johnstone in their last outing at least and come into this fixture knowing they are now five unbeaten against their main rivals.
Hibs are in strong enough form though with three wins from their last four - the defeat coming against Celtic.
I like the look of the 6/4 on OVER 11.5 CORNERS given the match-up and the occasion.
Hibs are one of the higher corner takers in Scotland's top-flight and that's partly down to their style of play. David Gray's side look to their width and they've attempted the second-highest amount of crosses this season.
And who sits first in that metric? Hearts. A high number of crosses is good for corner betting as some are inevitably blocked and deflected behind.
Even with the early kick-off the atmosphere should drive this into being quite a watchable game of football - well, we hope - and the potential end-to-end nature of it should lead to corners.
That's the hope, anyway.
Goals accumulator
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Thursday
- TV: Sky Sports+
There are a few games that caught my eye which had the potential for goals so rather than take them individually, putting together a fourfold delivers an appealing price above 9/1 with multiple bookmakers.
Two of those games are from the Sky Bet Championship, the first of which is MIDDLESBROUGH vs SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY.
Three of Boro's last five in front of their own supporters have seen at least three scored while the Owls have found the net twice or more in each of their previous three away outings.
Next up is WATFORD vs PORTSMOUTH - two sides who have seen goal-filled matches throughout the course of the campaign.
No side has seen over 2.5 goals hit more times than Portsmouth and Watford this season, with the hosts having it in 13 of their 21 while it's 12 in 20 for Pompey.
Into League One where BOLTON take on BARNSLEY. Across the visitors' 21 league contests, over 2.5 has been a winner in 14 - that includes their last away game at Exeter.
Bolton's home games are typically entertaining with six of ten hitting this line - they've scored and conceded 15 goals in each column.
Finally, we're taking a top-end of the table clash between WALSALL and DONCASTER in Sky Bet League Two. Backing over 2.5 goals has been a winner in seven of Walsall's ten at home.
For Doncaster, they see this line hit more in away games. It's been a winner in six of their ten away compared to just four in 11 in front of their own supporters.
Southampton vs West Ham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Thursday
- TV: Amazon Prime Video
- Home 11/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 21/20
Southampton finally made the call to sack the stubborn Russell Martin with his side rooted to the bottom of the Premier League table.
They moved fairly swiftly in bringing Ivan Jurić to the club but the question remains if they've left it too late. A lot of football is to be played and yet they're already eight points adrift.
What can we expect from a Jurić side? Well there will be more desire to win back the ball in a man-to-man marking style. He's likely to operate with a back-three as well so there isn't too much need for adjustment from that.
He'll need to make a significant impact on a side who have six points on their tally after 17 games. Hardly ideal when they face a West Ham attack with the potential for goals.
But it's their defence I'm looking towards at set-piece situations and I'm happy to go back in on the 16/1 for MAX KILMAN TO SCORE ANYTIME.
The Hammers centre-back should have found the net this season based on the chances he's seen, particularly in recent weeks.
Two shots came against Leicester, with the same marker reached at Bournemouth and when they hosted Wolves. What is significant about those opponents is that they have struggled to defend set-pieces this season.
Southampton are the same and it will be one area Jurić will be needing improvement. His Torino side were good at defending set-pieces in 23/24 but this will be something addressed in the more 'long term'.
It's a quick turnaround between matches and priority will be given to ensuring they know how to operate in the new structure. It's worth looking to make the most of the problem while it remains and take the big price on Kilman.
Elsewhere in this contest, I am going to try and make the most of that new style and take SOUTHAMPTON 14+ FOULS COMMITTED at 10/3.
Jurić's Torino sides would always rank low on tackles completed but high for fouls committed - it's an interesting pattern based on their style.
In 23/24, they were 20th for tackles and eighth for fouls. In 22/23, it was 20th for tackles and fifth for fouls. In 21/22, it was 17th for tackles and first for fouls.
Southampton rank 10th for average fouls committed in home games this season but I'll side with this new system being loosely in place and try and capitalise on the value while we can.
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Thursday
- TV: Amazon Prime Video
- Home 13/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 7/4
Long live Ange Postecoglou, the entertainer of the Premier League.
His Tottenham side were beaten 6-3 by Liverpool on Sunday in a brilliant watch for the neutral. The injury issues suffered to his defensive line have meant no change in the approach.
They're facing the real possibility of back-to-back defeats as they travel to high-flying Nottingham Forest, a game that has the potential to deliver the 8/5 on TOTTENHAM 7+ CORNERS.
Tottenham are a typically high corner side anyway because of their style of play but game state should also play a factor in this one.
Forest have scored the first goal in 13 of their 17 games so far - that is the highest of any team in England's top-flight. That should mean Spurs are chasing a way back in.
They're 4/5 to do that again so there's not a huge deal of value in it. Instead, I'm happy to side with the type of game that should bring.
Postecoglou's side took seven at Rangers and nine against Bournemouth in recent away games - both of those saw them going behind first.
And even if they do get the first goal, the style they operate with means they'll keep attacking and looking to their width to provide that. Only Fulham have attempted more crosses this season.
Stoke vs Leeds
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Thursday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 5/1 | Draw 16/5 | Away 1/2
I love my football, of course, but 8pm on Boxing Day is a bit late for a game, innit?
Stoke meet Leeds with the visitors struggling to replicate their home form on the road. They shouldn't really be in a battle with others at the top but they are and those away showings are the reason why.
Huge pressure on Daniel Farke's side then, particularly when they'll know how results have gone before they play.
The talk about Narcís Pèlach's future has already started though with his Stoke career not going to plan. They are without a win in eight - four of their last five have been defeats.
Rather than take the short price on an away win, I'm interested in the 13/2 on AO TANAKA TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Farke spoke over the summer about his desire for the goals to be shared around the other positions more but it's yet to arrive from his central midfield pairing.
Tanaka has been pushing though and has returned at least one shot in each of his last 12 outings, with two coming in the 4-0 win over Oxford last time out.
The Japan international is no stranger to finding the net after scoring seven in the second division of German football for Fortuna Düsseldorf last season and part of the reason Leeds brought him in will have been for that element.
There's also the potential that Tanaka plays further forward once Ethan Ampadu returns to full fitness.
A goal is coming for the midfielder and I'll be taking this price whenever it's available.
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (23/12/24)
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