- Tom Carnduff 24/25 - Staked = 132.5pts | Returned = 118.06pts | P/L = -16.44pts | ROI = -11%
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Ajax to beat Twente at 19/10 (bet365)
Hell of a weekend last time out.
Japhet Tanganga was backed to strike at 22/1 in Millwall's clash with Burnley, only for centre-back Jake Cooper to score instead.
In France, Moise Bombito was fancied at 18s for Nice as they faced Brest and he saw the best chance of the contest - that ranked at 0.47 xG and was given a 'Massive' tag in our shot map of the game.
Of course, it didn't go in. Fine margins and all that.
In the FA Cup, the shocks piece returned a small profit as Tamworth beat Huddersfield at 11/2 but Newport (5/1) blew a 2-0 lead in defeat to Peterborough while Boreham Wood (9/1) saw a last-minute winner ruled out by the linesman's flag against Leyton Orient.
And the midweek tipping was kind enough. Arne Engels getting an assist at 13/2 in Celtic's win over Leipzig, while Abdülkerim Bardakci had a shot at 5/4 in Galatasaray vs Tottenham and Over 2.5 landed in Lazio vs Porto at 10/11.
Here's hoping that recent form continues this weekend.
Twente vs Ajax
- Kick-off time: 13:30 GMT, Sunday
- Home 13/10 | Draw 23/10 | Away 17/10
Selection added at 1020 GMT (08/11/24)
It's been a chaotic couple of years for Ajax. The once great European team reduced to struggling in the top-flight of Dutch football.
They have at least been champions as recent as 2022 and under Francesco Farioli's guidance they are challenging at the top again.
Ajax have lost just once in ten league outings so far, with eight of those ending in victory - that's a run which includes an away win at Feyenoord a couple of weeks ago.
Twente will pose another tough test but I'm willing to take the near 2/1 on an AJAX WIN on Sunday.
They prepared for this contest with a 5-0 hammering of Maccabi Tel Aviv in the Europa League on Thursday and they sit second after four games in that competition - only Lazio are above them.
In the Eredivisie, Feyenoord are the only side to boast a better defence than Ajax according to the underlying numbers, while they sit third for expected goals (xG) created.
Twente have been formidable in home contests but then they have played five sides currently sat 9th or lower. In away trips to Utrecht (3rd) and Feyenoord (4th), they've been beaten.
I'll back Ajax to be the latest top team to get the better of them.
Already advised
2pts Over 2.5 goals in Moreirense vs Gil Vicente (20:15) at 11/8 (General)
1pt Over 2.5 goals in Union Berlin vs Freiburg (19:30), Elche vs Almeria (19:30) & Moreirense vs Gil Vicente (20:15) at 9.47/1 (Betfair)
1pt Patrick Erras to score anytime in Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel (14:30) at 18/1 (bet365, Sky Bet)
2pts BTTS in AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby (15:00) at 20/23 (Betfair)
1pt Craig Dawson to score anytime in Wolves vs Southampton (15:00) at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Matheus Nunes 1+ assists in Brighton vs Manchester City (17:30) at 9/2 (BetVictor)
Moreirense vs Gil Vicente
- Kick-off time: 20:15 GMT, Friday
- Home 21/20 | Draw 2/1 | Away 12/5
A rare trip across to Portugal for me as one price jumped out when scanning the weekend card and led me down a curiosity trail to discover why.
Friday sees a mid-table clash between Moreirense and Gil Vicente and there's 11/8 available with multiple bookmakers on OVER 2.5 GOALS in the contest.
Gil Vicente have averaged 2.8 goals per game across their ten in the league so far, while Moreirense are a little lower at 2.4 - half of their games have gone over 2.5 though.
That said, one of Moreirense's home games was against Benfica which ended in a 1-1 draw. That, as you'd expect, limited their opportunities to just 0.2 expected goals (xG).
In terms of those underlying numbers, both teams sit in the top-seven of 18 teams for xG generated in Portugal's top-flight this season. Defensively, Gil Vicente are sixth for most expected goals against (xGA).
They've also seen 63% of their xGA coming in their away games - it's worth mentioning that three of those came against sides currently in the top-six.
And yet three of four games against opponents below them in the Primeira Liga table have resulted in at least three goals scored.
Backing this as a selection has been a winner in each of Gil Vicente's last four outings, with both teams scoring in five of the last six.
In 89 top-flight games in Portugal this season, over 2.5 has landed in 49% of them.
Friday goals treble
- Union Berlin vs Freiburg (19:30)
- Elche vs Almeria (19:30)
- Moreirense vs Gil Vicente (20:15)
I was going to back this selection in the three games listed above but I thought it would be more interesting to take the treble at above 9/1.
OVER 2.5 GOALS is in focus here for UNION BERLIN vs FREIBURG, ELCHE vs ALMERIA and MOREIRENSE vs GIL VICENTE.
I've already made the case for the game in Portugal above, so we'll focus on the Bundesliga with Union Berlin welcoming Freiburg at 19:30.
Union boast a strong defensive record in home games so far but we have to look at the fixture list as the reason behind that.
They've faced St. Pauli and Hoffenheim alongside a Dortmund side who struggle on the road this season. The 1-1 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt saw the visitors enjoy the better of the opportunities - the total expected goals (xG) tally in that game adding up to 3.26.
Freiburg lost 3-1 in a recent away trip to Leipzig while they weren't particularly troubled in trips to Heidenheim and Werder Bremen. Union should pose more of a threat.
Elche meet Almeria in Spain's second division at 19:30 - a game available on Premier Sports 2 - and this meeting puts two strong attacks against one another.
Elche sit second for xG created in home games this season while Almeria are third for xG on the road. Crucially, they also possess the third-most expected goals against (xGA) across those games.
Over 2.5 has been a winner in eight of Almeria's 12 in the league with five of the seven away seeing it land - that includes in each of their last four.
Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel
- Kick-off time: 14:30 GMT, Saturday
- Home 3/5 | Draw 16/5 | Away 19/5
Oh yesssss. It's my favourite sort of game. We've got a big set-piece mismatch here.
Essentially, Werder Bremen are rubbish at defending them, Holstein Kiel are good at attacking them.
We'll start with the positives for the visitors. In terms of the underlying numbers, they sit 14th across Europe's big five leagues for expected goals (xG) created from set-piece situations per game - impressive enough from 96 teams.
For Bremen, they are fifth from the 96 for total expected goals against (xGA) from corners and free-kicks. They've done very well to have conceded just once from set-pieces in the Bundesliga this season.
It's much clearer how important it is for Kiel with 36% of their goals so far resulting from set-pieces.
PATRICK ERRAS scored the only goal of the game as they beat Heidenheim last time out and this contest presents a good opportunity to go back-to-back.
Erras has posted two shots in each of his last two outings, making it four of seven Bundesliga games with at least one effort this season.
Both Mönchengladbach centre-backs had a shot in their win over Bremen in their last game. Leverkusen's Jonathan Tah had two shots before that. All three Wolfsburg defenders saw a shot each as well.
Their cup contest with Paderborn presented issues too with Laurin Curda having two efforts. The concern for Bremen is this all came in their last four games.
They don't really possess anyone who has the aerial ability to challenge Erras, making the 18/1 best price available on him scoring anytime well worth backing.
Wolves vs Southampton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 19/20 | Draw 13/5 | Away 5/2
Pressure continues to mount on Wolves boss Gary O'Neil and anything less than victory over Southampton will be viewed as huge disappointment.
The home side are bottom of the Premier League table, with last weekend's 2-2 draw against Crystal Palace their third point of the season. Victory over Everton for the Saints moved them one spot above.
Russell Martin's side are conceding a huge amount of chances though. That includes at set-piece situations - only Leicester sit above them for the quality of chances allowed to the opposition from corners and free-kicks.
They also sit second for expected goals against (xGA) at set-pieces across Europe's big five leagues. It's an average of 0.53 xGA per game - that is a significant problem.
It can be a good route to goal for Wolves though and I'm happy to side with CRAIG DAWSON TO SCORE ANYTIME at a big price.
Dawson has posted at least one shot in three of his last five league outings with two coming in their 2-2 draw away at Brighton a couple of weeks ago.
Both Everton centre-backs had a shot in Southampton's last game, while all three for Stoke did in their Carabao Cup encounter - Ashley Phillips found the net.
Add in the game against Manchester City before that and it means all opposing centre-backs have had at least one effort in each of the Saints' past three in all competitions.
Wout Faes (1), Gabriel Magalhães (3), Dara O'Shea (1), Jacob Greaves (1), Mathijs De Ligt (2), Nathan Collins (1), Dimitrios Goutas (1), Nikola Milenkovic (3) and Fabian Schär (1) are the other centre-backs to register shots against Southampton this season.
Dawson's aerial threat means he could so easily add his name to that list and even go one better than some by finding the net.
AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 7/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 16/5
Grimsby are an odd team this season. Although to be fair Grimsby have been an odd team for a few seasons now.
David Artell's side have won seven and lost seven. Three of the wins have come at home, with four from seven on the road. It very much seems to be a case of win one week and lose the next.
The Mariners just can't defend and that's a significant factor behind the inconsistent form. It's hardly ideal facing a Wimbledon outfit who have won all five home league games so far.
I do like the potential for BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE though because of Grimsby's involvement.
It's been a winner in four of their last six on the road, and while Wimbledon have been solid in front of their own supporters, Grimsby have been finding the net against some good teams.
In seven away outings, Artell's men have found the net in six and they sit mid-table in terms of chances created in League Two.
With near even money available, BTTS is the play here.
Brighton vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 16/5 | Draw 29/10 | Away 8/11
Selection added at 1200 GMT (07/11/24)
Manchester City were hammered 4-1 by Sporting in the Champions League last time out, a result that will surely leave Brighton fans wondering 'is this the best time to play City?'.
A dangerous trap to fall in to. While Pep Guardiola's side may not have been at their best in recent weeks the quality remains and it would be foolish to ever write them off.
I'm going to add a bet I've been backing across their last few games, and while it hasn't won, I've been more than encouraged by the performances and its chances in future weeks.
At 9/2, MATHEUS NUNES 1+ ASSISTS remains good value.
Since switching to becoming a left winger due to injury issues for City, Nunes has created plenty of chances for his teammates. Such is the level of his performances that he may well stay there once players return.
The contest against Sparta Prague, the first on this run of five games in his new role, delivered two assists from three chances created.
He would then get an assist from two chances against Southampton, following it up with two chances against Spurs in the Carabao Cup.
In the trip to Bournemouth, the five chances created was the most of any player on the pitch with the defeat at Sporting seeing two. He should have more than the three assists during this run.
I'm going to continue backing this while he's featuring in this position. Savinho, likely to start on the other wing, is as short as 23/10 in places.
Odds correct at 1300 GMT (06/11/24)
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