Sporting Life
Weekend Tips - Harry Kane

Tom Carnduff's tips: Best bets in LaLiga, Bundesliga, EFL for September 27-29

By Tom Carnduff
Football
Sat September 28, 2024 · 3M ago

Football betting tips: LaLiga, Liga I, EFL, Bundesliga

Saturday

1.5pts Over 11.5 corners in Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen (17:30) at 12/5 (bet365)

1pt Dominik Szoboszlai to score anytime in Wolves vs Liverpool (17:30) at 9/2 (General)

1pt Over 2.5 goals in Poli Iasi vs Universitatea Cluj (14:45) at 11/8 (General)

2pts Under 2.5 goals in Wigan vs Exeter (15:00) at 4/5 (General)

1pt George Saville to score anytime in Millwall vs Preston (15:00) at 13/2 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

I'm enjoying this column's tendency to back a goalscorer, watch them have a load of efforts but then fail to find the net. It's a talent of sorts I reckon.

This week takes a trip around Europe with six leagues in focus from four different countries. One or two may be added on Sunday after initial publication too - that is dependent on market availability.

I'll be trying to take some of the points I made in my Notebook column to find value in selections. That's out every Monday and the potential is there to snag the early weekend prices from it.

Saturday sees the eye-catching contest between Bayern and Leverkusen in Germany which just had to feature here. The two leading sides in Germany are surely set to produce the game of the weekend.

Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen

Don't even waste your time with Wolves vs Liverpool in the Premier League, the Bundesliga gives us the blockbuster meeting between Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen in the late kick-off.

The two leading clubs in Germany face off in a contest that has all the potential to be a thriller. The odds agree - all bookmakers go with an odds-on price that we see four or more goals.

That's hardly a surprise when we factor in Bayern's sensational form. Vincent Kompany's men have scored 20 goals across their previous three outings - that includes the 9-2 hammering of Dinamo Zagreb in the Champions League.

Leverkusen have scored four in each of their last three. Over 4.5 goals has been a winner in their four league games so far.

I'll side with it being an attacking contest, but rather than side with the lower odds on goals, I'll take the 12/5 for OVER 11.5 CORNERS.

It looks like a game with the potential for the corner count to go high. Leverkusen's recent 3-2 defeat to Leipzig saw a huge total of 20 - 18 of those taken by Leverkusen.

Xabi Alonso's side took 12 in the away win at Hoffenheim, while this would have also been a winning selection in their Super Cup triumph over Stuttgart. Again, Leverkusen saw the majority.

Most of Bayern's games this season have been so one-sided that the game hasn't been competitive enough for corners - they did take 12 against Zagreb - but this is their first real test of the campaign.

While a different manager was at the Bayern helm, this fixture last season delivered 11 corners, with ten in the meeting at Leverkusen. I'd expect more this time around considering the form of both.

Wolves vs Liverpool

Ok, I'm adding this in after initial publication so maybe waste a bit of your time on this game. Just a bit though.

Reports emerged on Friday claiming that a virus in the Wolves camp may mean that several players are unavailable for Saturday's late kick-off.

Liverpool were fancied for success anyway given the mismatch in quality but it does further enhance the potential of a big away victory here.

I think the best approach is to probably look for goalscorers and there are a number of candidates you can go for. Based on what I've seen, I'm happy to return to DOMINIK SZOBOSZLAI at a price of 9/2 anytime.

He found the net against Milan in the Champions League and should have scored when backed in their win over Manchester United - turning down a prime shooting opportunity that would have surely found the net.

The attacking midfielder has returned at least one shot in every game with three at Ipswich and two in their surprise loss to Nottingham Forest.

Considering the contest, you'd expect Szoboszlai to get some good chances to strike.

Poli Iasi vs Universitatea Cluj

Poli Iasi may sit in the lower end of the standings, but they have demonstrated they are one of the most attack-minded teams in Romania's top-flight.

Three wins from their opening 10 leaves them 12th of 16 in Liga I - hardly ideal when they welcome an unbeaten Universitatea Cluj who already have a five-point lead at the top.

Despite their position, Poli Iasi top the charts for total shots taken - 154 with 52 of those on target. The latter figure there is also league-leading.

The 11/8 with multiple bookmakers on OVER 2.5 GOALS provides appeal.

This has been a winning selection in three of Poli Iasi's five at home so far, and while it may have only been the case in one away game for the visitors, they have struck twice in each of their last two on the road.

The hosts have scored in eight of their 11 across all competitions, but their goal difference sitting at -5 shows that while the intent to attack is there, the quality in defence isn't.

Wigan vs Exeter

If you're chasing entertainment in the EFL, perhaps Wigan are the team to avoid based on recent performances.

The last two games involving the Latics have finished 0-0, and their home encounters have hardly been packed with goals - UNDER 2.5 being a winner in all three so far.

Shaun Maloney's side drew 0-0 with Stevenage in their last outing in front of their own supporters, with two 1-0 contests coming before that. It's not as if they've been unlucky, they've barely created anything.

Quite literally nothing happened in that draw in midweek. The ultimate snoozefest of a game. It left me more confused about how they netted four in a win at Bristol Rovers just 10 days prior.

Exeter have hardly been flying in attack either, although they've gone over the 2.5 line in three of their six games. In terms of creativity though, they sit towards the lower end of the table.

It may be that both sides see this as a chance of victory and it becomes an unexpected goal-filled 90 minutes. I'll side with recent showings though and take fewer than a handful coming on Saturday.

Millwall vs Preston

Millwall's campaign has been one of missed opportunity so far. They've been slightly wasteful in front of goal when we factor in the chances they've created, even if they've got nine goals on their tally.

In Preston, they face an opponent who are starting to pick up points under Paul Heckingbottom but lack a real threat. The odds on a home win, therefore, are worth including in any Saturday accumulator.

You can get 7/1 on GEORGE SAVILLE TO SCORE ANYTIME though and I'm happy to side with the bigger price.

This was something I wrote about in the latest edition of the Notebook this week, but basically, Saville has been one of Millwall's biggest threats in terms of shots but that is yet to deliver a goal.

Duncan Watmore (15) is the only player to post more shots than Saville (13). He may be a defensive midfielder in terms of the set-up but he posts a significant threat from both open play and set-piece situations.

Saville is averaging 0.30 xG per 90. In terms of the chances then, we'd have expected to see at least a couple of goals by this stage.

He's playing every minute too so there's no the worry of a potential substitution that exists with other players - a big bonus when it comes to goalscorer betting.

Already advised

2pts Dinamo Bucuresti to beat Botosani (19:00) at 17/20 (bet365)

1pt Over 2.5 goals in Real Valladolid vs Real Mallorca (20:00) at 7/4 (General)

Dinamo Bucuresti vs Botosani

I'm surprised with myself that it took this long for some Romanian football to make an appearance in the new weekend tipping column.

I've followed Romanian football more closely since a trip there around 12 months ago.

A visit to Bucharest included watching Progresul Spartac who were at that stage in the second division. They lost. They lost basically every week. They literally finished the season with four points.

God I love 'em though, and the third-tier campaign has begun with two wins from four. We are so back.

Luckily, I'm not dragging you that far down the Romanian football pyramid. We are staying in the capital though and siding with DINAMO BUCURESTI TO BEAT BOTOSANI at just shy of even money.

We're 10 games in already with the Romanian top-flight beginning in mid-July (no idea what would have happened if Romania somehow made the Euro 2024 final) and Dinamo have enjoyed a solid enough start with points gained in eight of those outings.

All four home games have ended in victory - 11 scored and just three conceded. Three of those would have been viewed as very winnable anyway but this is a good side against a Botosani outfit who struggle - especially when travelling.

Perhaps logistics play a part. Botosani is located in the north east of the country and their closest away game is Poli Iasi - two hours away!

Botosani have lost four of their five on the road - they lost 13 of 20 last season - and while they may have beaten Farul Constanta it was very much a one-off.

With Bucharest another long journey on Friday, it should be an away game in which they leave empty-handed.

Real Valladolid vs Real Mallorca

A trip to northwest Spain to continue this week's column and you can get best odds of 7/4 on OVER 2.5 GOALS when Valladolid host Real Mallorca on Friday night. That is worth a play.

Most games float around the odds-on split when it comes to the goals line, but Mallorca's solid defence, in terms of goals allowed anyway, is likely to be a driving factor behind this.

Valladolid haven't quite got firing yet, but defensively they've conceded plenty of chances. It doesn't help that they've faced Barcelona and Real Madrid away already.

Yet looking at some of their opponents so far may explain why some games have been low-scoring. Leganes - a really, really poor attacking unit - and Real Sociedad have both seen 0-0 draws in their trips to the Estadio José Zorrilla.

Mallorca have also faced the two aforementioned teams - both ending in 1-0 victories - while they've also had a trip to Osasuna. Half of their games so far have been against weak attacks.

Now, Valladolid are hardly prolific themselves but they created enough to beat Leganes while the opportunities that fell both teams' way against Sociedad should have seen a couple on the board there.

Valladolid's defence certainly looks vulnerable on their return to the top flight.

Other odds correct at 0850 BST (26/09/24)

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