Sporting Life
Weekend Tips - Pablo Rosario

Tom Carnduff's tips: Best bets for Premier League, LaLiga, Bundesliga, EFL, Ligue 1

By Tom Carnduff
Football
Sun October 27, 2024 · 1M ago

Football betting tips: El Clasico, Bundesliga, EFL, Premier League, Ligue 1

Sunday

1pt Pablo Rosario to score anytime in Nice vs Monaco (16:00) at 14/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

It's been a busy week of football and the addition of a Premier League game on Friday night continues the string of 'top level' matches available to watch.

Even more so when there was a Monday Night Football followed by three days of European action to get involved with. In fairness, it's delivered entertainment throughout.

A few things have caught they eye which I've highlighted in the latest Notebook column - some of which have influenced a selection or two here.

As ever, this column is going across Europe, spanning Friday to Sunday, with a number of markets in focus.

England and Spain in focus first up. Let's get on with it.

Magdeburg vs Hannover

Sunday's action begins in the 2. Bundesliga, where Magdeburg welcome Hannover in a lunchtime kick-off.

Both sides are battling for promotion to the top tier of German football and it's the hosts who currently hold the advantage in the standings - they sit ahead of their opponents on goal difference with two points separating them and Hamburg in third.

The odds on a victory either way are similar, but the value comes in backing MAGDEBURG TO WIN with a best price of 8/5 available.

The home campaign so far has been held back by four draws yet Hannover's own reliance on points in front of their own supporters creates some issues for them.

They've won all five of their own home games yet it's a draw and three losses on the road - deservedly so based on the numbers as well.

Only 29% of their total expected goals (xG) tally has been created away. Not only that, but 73% of their total expected goals against (xGA) has been conceded on the road too.

Sunday presents a big opportunity for Magdeburg to register a win.

Nice vs Monaco

Ligue 1 action on Sunday sees Nice hosting Monaco - two sides who have featured in European action this season.

Nice boast an unbeaten home record in France's top flight, although they have only played three times. A win and two draws sits on their record - an 8-0 win over St. Etienne the highlight, unsurprisingly.

One of the scorers that day was PABLO ROSARIO and the appeal comes in taking him at 14/1 to strike again here.

The midfielder has posted six shots in six outings this season with four of those on target. The thing that makes this a particularly eye-catching price is the fact that he has taken a penalty.

Rosario converted their only spot-kick of the domestic campaign but also scored from open play in the Europa League win over Real Sociedad on Matchday 1.

Monaco have already conceded a penalty in the league but there's every chance of another given the competitive nature of the contest.

The confidence is there after Evann Guessand missed from the spot in that clash with Sociedad. That means these duties could revert back to their captain on Sunday.

Given the prices, I'll take the risk.

Already advised

Friday

2pts Over 2.5 goals in Espanyol vs Sevilla (20:00) at 6/5 (General)

0.75pt Nikola Milenkovic to score anytime in Leicester vs Nottingham Forest (20:00) at 16/1 (General)

0.75pt Murillo to score anytime in Leicester vs Nottingham Forest (20:00) at 25/1 (Sky Bet)

Saturday

1pt Augsburg to beat Borussia Dortmund (14:30) at 11/4 (Betfair)

1.5pts Both teams to score in West Brom vs Cardiff (15:00) at Evens (bet365)

1.5pts Robert Lewandowski to score anytime in Real Madrid vs Barcelona (20:00) at 17/10 (General)

0.5pt Lewandowski to score 2+ goals at 8/1 (BoyleSports)

Sunday

1pt Magdeburg to beat Hannover (12:30) at 8/5 (General)

Real Madrid vs Barcelona

We're treated to the 258th edition of El Clasico on Saturday evening as Real Madrid renew their rivalry with Barcelona in Spain's top flight.

It comes as no surprise the duo occupy the top two spots after 10 games - Barca holding a three-point advantage and a far superior goal difference.

Hansi Flick's side are a scary attacking unit. They've scored 43 goals across 13 league and Champions League appearances with an expected goals (xG) total which is by far the biggest of any side in Europe's top five leagues.

ROBERT LEWANDOWSKI has thrived under Flick's guidance again, making the 17/10 available on a GOAL ANYTIME well worth getting involved with.

The 36-year-old is still as prolific as he was in Germany, aided of course by a reunion with his former Bayern boss, and his campaign so far has delivered 12 goals in 10 league outings.

Lewandowski has found the net in seven of those, with a hat-trick coming in the recent away win over Alaves. His time at Barcelona has seen 73 goals in 107 appearances, contributing a further 19 assists.

Real have kept only one clean sheet in their last five home games, with both Alaves and Dortmund scoring twice across the previous three.

They will struggle to keep this flowing Barcelona attack out, even if they are favourites to win the game. Half of Barca's league game this season have seen at least FIVE goals scored too.

I won't put anyone off taking LEWANDOWSKI TO SCORE 2+ at 15/2 either.

He's done this on five occasions already this season, which includes his last two outings in the league.

Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund were at it again on Tuesday night, throwing away a 2-0 lead at half-time to lose 5-2 to Real Madrid in the Champions League.

It was another poor away performance with the team struggling when not at the Signal Iduna Park. Just two of six away games have now ended in victory and one of those came against fourth-tier Phönix Lübeck in the cup.

At 11/4, I'm willing to back AUGSBURG TO WIN considering their own reliance on home results.

I will say that Augsburg have lost 4-0 to Leipzig and 3-1 to Freiburg this season but they were on the road. At home, it's a different story.

Wins came against Mönchengladbach and St. Pauli, with a draw against Werder Bremen and a 3-2 loss to Mainz - although they should have won that based on the chances.

Dortmund are facing creativity problems on the road - remarkable really when they have won a game 7-1 this season.

Stuttgart, Union Berlin and Werder Bremen all limited Nuri Şahin's side to very little in their league contests. That could be an issue travelling to Augsburg who have been somewhat unfortunate to concede as many as they have in front of their own supporters.

I'm still not sure how Augsburg could perform against those expected to be towards the top, but based on their home showings so far, I'll have a little go on the near 3/1 available for victory.

West Brom vs Cardiff

I'm using a point highlighted in my latest Notebook column to pick out a bet in this one.

There's certainly been a change in approach following Omer Riza's interim appointment as Cardiff boss. This is a side now far more intent on attack.

The Bluebirds averaged 0.56 xG per game under Erol Bulut's guidance this season, but since Riza has taken over, that figure has shot up to 1.91 xG.

They've scored in all five of those contests with at least 2.45 xG created in each of their previous two outings. At 11/10 then, I'll take BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE when they travel to West Brom on Saturday.

The Baggies' home games have been low scoring this season - it's remarkable only three goals have been scored across five games at The Hawthorns - but the approach of the visitors could see it become quite open.

West Brom have been wasteful, underperforming the underlying metrics by nearly six goals based on the quality of chances they've created.

Cardiff may have kept back-to-back clean sheets but they were against teams expected to be at the lower end of the table this season. It's also worth noting they were home games.

In two away games under Riza, they've conceded five. It could be quite an entertaining clash when these two face-off.

Leicester vs Nottingham Forest

Leicester should go into Friday's meeting with Nottingham Forest full of confidence after coming from 2-0 down at Southampton to win 3-2 last time out.

In Forest, they come up against a side facing a quick turnaround from involvement in the Monday Night Football. That, at least, was a 1-0 victory over Crystal Palace.

The Foxes will know they face an uphill battle to survive though and one area in which they've particularly struggled is defending set-pieces.

It's at a stage where they are actually the second-worst side across Europe's big five leagues according to expected goals (xG) data. The 4.68 xGA they've conceded from corners and free-kicks topped only by Espanyol (5.14), who we'll discuss shortly.

Attacking set-pieces has improved for Forest this season, making the 16/1 on NIKOLA MILENKOVIC TO SCORE ANYTIME worth backing given the mismatch.

The Serb centre-back is Forest's biggest aerial threat. He leads the way for aerial duels won among all players within this squad - each of his last three outings delivering at least five successful ones.

Milenkovic hasn't seen as many shots as we'd have liked but he did return three on his debut away at Southampton in August, all of which were a result of set-piece situations.

He has previously enjoyed a league campaign which delivered as many as five goals, for Fiorentina in 2019/20.

And to cover ourselves in case his partner strikes, I'll also take the bigger price of 25/1 on MURILLO TO SCORE ANYTIME.

He certainly isn't prolific - Murillo is yet to score for Forest - but he has had three shots in his last two appearances. That includes two in their previous away game at Chelsea.

Murillo heads the ball clear against Crystal Palace

Leicester conceded two shots to Southampton's Taylor Harwood-Bellis last time out, with both Bournemouth centre-backs having one each before that - Illia Zabarnyi struck the woodwork.

Arsenal's Gabriel had three, even Walsall's David Okagbue had an effort despite the fact they were underdogs in their Carabao Cup encounter. All of those coming in Leicester's last four games.

Given the Foxes' issues, I'll side with two goalscorers at big prices.

Espanyol vs Sevilla

Friday's LaLiga action comes from Barcelona, where Espanyol can continue their run of entertaining home encounters when they welcome Sevilla.

It's clear how the hosts look to contests at the RCDE Stadium for returns - nine of their 10 points gained in Spain's top-flight have come in front of their own supporters.

They face a Sevilla side who are inconsistent though. The 2/1 or above available on a home win would otherwise provide decent appeal, but instead, the 6/5 on OVER 2.5 GOALS is the way to go given what we've seen from the hosts so far.

Eight of Espanyol's 10 goals scored have come at home, with over 2.5 a winning selection in each of their last four.

The underlying numbers back this up too. A total of 72% of their overall expected goals (xG) tally has been created at home, yet they have still conceded a higher expected goals against (xGA) figure.

Sevilla can play their part as well. Half of their 10 league games have gone over 2.5 with it landing in three of five on the road.

It's not as if the goals are being made up by teams towards the top either. Villarreal are the only home opponent Espanyol have faced in the top four this season, the others being Mallorca (sixth), Vallecano (ninth), Sociedad (11th) and Alaves (14th).

An Espanyol win and over 2.5 goals is around 4/1 if you fancy something bigger. I'm happy to side with just the goals element though.

Odds correct at 1200 BST (24/10/24)

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