Sporting Life
Celebration time at Old Trafford
Celebration time at Old Trafford

Thursday's Premier League betting tips: Free previews, predictions & best bets including Leicester v Sheff Utd, Crystal Palace v Man Utd & Everton v Aston Villa

By Paul Higham
Football
Thu July 16, 2020 · 4y ago

Four more Premier League games to get stuck into on Thursday with Man Utd and Leicester chasing Europe. We preview all four.

Recommended bets

1pt Everton to beat Villa at 11/10

1pt HT draw in Leicester v Sheff Utd at 11/10

1pt Southampton to draw with Brighton at 23/10

1pt Man Utd to score 3+ goals against Palace at 11/8

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Everton v Aston Villa

I don't think it's overstating it by calling this a monumental game for Villa, who probably thought they were definitely down before pinching that glimmer of hope with a win over Palace - and now face another mid-table side with nothing to play for.

Except, however, that this Everton mid-table side just got embarassed at Wolves and will have learnt a lot of more colourful Italian language from Carlo Ancelotti this week. They're currently 11th and the players must know by now that 11th is the worst the club having finished since escaping relagtion in 2004.

Ancelotti and captain Seamus Coleman both slammed the attitude on Sunday, and surely professional pride will mean a raised level of performance - without a crowd though, can they match Villa's intensity? If they can, then they have more than enough quality to win.

READ: Should England still pick Pickford?

And winning two games in a week is a big ask for a Villa side who won for the first time in sixth months on Sunday. With Watford playing West Ham on Friday though, a win here would really give them a fighting chance - especially as they play the Hammers on the final day.

Colour me sceptical but I'm just not convinced Villa are set for some miraculous escape, and I'm not convinced Everton will serve up two stinkers back-to-back with Ancelotti in charge. Villa will come flying out at this one, but their defence has been rotten this season - conceding in every away game.

The shades of odds-against on an Everton win is worth taking, as quality should count here - if they fail again then a few of them shouldn't even bother turning up at Goodison next season.

Prediction: Everton 2-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Best bet: Everton to beat Villa at 11/10

Everton v Aston Villa Opta stats

  • Everton have won their last three home league games against Aston Villa, last winning more consecutively against them at Goodison Park between 1964-1975 (5).
  • Everton are unbeaten in 10 Premier League home games (W5 D5); only Liverpool (58) are on a longer current such run, while it’s the Toffees’ longest run without defeat at Goodison Park since December 2016 (11).
  • Aston Villa are the only side without an away clean sheet in the Premier League this season. Overall, they’ve conceded in each of their last 24 Premier League away games – only five clubs have had a longer such run in the competition’s history.
  • Before the enforced break, Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin had scored eight goals in 11 Premier League games. He’s yet to find the net in six games since the restart, despite having more shots than any other Everton player (16).

Leicester v Sheffield United

Caglar Soyuncu is suspended while James Maddison and Ben Chilwell are out for the Foxes who are seeing their Champions League dreams melt away on the back of that bizarre defeat at Bournemouth. How they conjured up a defeat there is beyond me.

The improving Blades can actually close to within two points of struggling Leicester who, despite winning just four games this year, can still make the Champions League if they win their last three games. They're 4/11 to miss out to Chelsea and Man Utd though.

Brendan Rodgers is under pressure as Leicester's Champions League bid stalls

Chris Wilder's side took their time after the restart but smashing three past Spurs and Chelsea was some way to turn things around - their away form though has taken a turn for the worse and now they're without an away win since February. They've also not scored more than once on the road this year.

This looks an excellent chance though against what will be a very nervy Leicester, especially if they concede first. They'll always have a chance with Sheffield Wednesday fan and odds-on Golden Boot favourite Jamie Vardy in their ranks though.

Given the circumstances this one should be cagey, especially early on, and while overall I think the draw (23/10) is a sound play on the match result, we're looking instead on the half-time stalemate price of just about odds-against. 16 of Leicester's games have been level at the break and 17 of United's - and that's decent enough form for that to come in.

Prediction: Leicester 1-1 Sheff Utd (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Best bet: HT draw in Leicester v Sheff Utd at 11/10

Leicester City v Sheffield United Opta stats

  • Sheffield United haven’t lost both league matches in a season against Leicester since 1928-29 in the top-flight, with this the 38th different campaign they’ve faced them in since then.
  • Since the start of February, Leicester have won just two of their 11 Premier League games (D5 L4), however both of those victories have come at the King Power Stadium (vs Aston Villa and Crystal Palace).
  • Having failed to win any of their first three Premier League matches back after the restart (D1 L2), Sheffield United have gone unbeaten in their last four (W3 D1) and will be aiming to pick up three consecutive victories in the competition for the first time since December.
  • With 54 points from their opening 35 games this season, only four newly promoted sides have won more points than Sheffield United at this stage of Premier League campaign, with Ipswich in 2000-01 the last to do so (62 points).
  • Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has scored 23 Premier League goals this season, only netting more in a single campaign in the competition in the Foxes title winning season of 2015-16 (24 goals).

Crystal Palace v Man Utd

That late Southampton goal was a sickener for United, even though Saints probably deserved a point, but they've got a friendly fixture to get back on track in what looks an inevitable top four finish for them.

Palace resumed with a win that put them on 42 points, then seemingly went on their holidays with five defeats since then - so you can see why United are huge favourites to continue their fine form here.

Palace, who haven't beaten United at home since 1991, have drawn four blanks in their last five defeats, with over 2.5 goals coming in three of them, while United's last five league games have all eclipsed that number.

Over 2.5 is 8/11 here, and Man Utd to score three (11/8) is another avenue worth exploring after Palace conceded three against Leicester and Chelsea and four against Liverpool - United just have so much pace and clinical finishing ability that anything other than maximum effort defensively could keep them out - and Palace simply won't have that for 90 minutes.

Prediction: Crystal Palace 0-3 Man Utd (Sky Bet Odds: 7/1)

Best bet: Man Utd to score 3+ goals against Palace at 11/8

Crystal Palace – Manchester United Opta stats

  • Crystal Palace’s 2-1 win at Old Trafford in August ended a run of 22 top-flight games without a win against Man Utd – they’re looking to complete their first ever league double over the Red Devils.
  • Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 11 away league games against Crystal Palace (W8 D3), since a 0-3 loss in May 1991 courtesy of goals from Ian Wright and John Salako (2).
  • Crystal Palace have lost each of their last five Premier League games. They last lost six in a row in September 2017 (8), while manager Roy Hodgson hasn’t lost six in a row in the competition since his last three with Blackburn in November 1998 and his first three with Fulham in January 2008.
  • Manchester United are unbeaten in five Premier League away games (W3 D2), winning each of the last two by a 3-0 scoreline. Indeed, just two of the Red Devils’ previous 52 away league games had been won by a margin of 3+ goals.
  • Man Utd have won just one of their last five Premier League games in London (D1 L3), winning 2-0 at Chelsea in February.

Southampton v Brighton

One for the teamsheets this one, as although Southampton are on a great run Ralph Hasenhuttl may have to make changes after his boys put a tremendous shift in at Old Trafford roughly 72 hours before they kick-off here.

Danny Ings will want to play and try and cling on to his fading Golden Boot hopes, and he has a canny nack for scoring first - as have Saints lately having taken the lead in each of the last four games - all in the first half.

You'd usually fancy them to start strong here as well for this south coast clash, but whether they could see out the 90 minutes given their recent efforts would be the big question. They also have the worst home record in the league bar Norwich.

Brighton won't go down, but it's still looking a bit too close for Graham Potter's liking and he'd like a response to recent heavy defeats. If Saints are leggy then Brighton could pinch a close one but to me this could be one game too many and this has a laboured draw written all over it.

Prediction: Southampton 1-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Best bet: Southampton to draw with Brighton at 23/10

Southampton v Brighton Opta stats

  • Southampton are unbeaten in all five of their Premier League meetings with Brighton (W2 D3). They’ve faced the Seagulls without defeat more than they have any other side in the competition.
  • Brighton have won just one of their six away league games against Southampton at St Mary’s Stadium (D3 L2), winning 3-1 in League One in November 2009.
  • Southampton have won four of their six midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League matches this season. However, they haven’t won either such match since the restart (D1 L1).
  • Three of Brighton’s four Premier League goals against Southampton have been scored by Glenn Murray.
  • After scoring in seven of his first 11 home league matches this season, Southampton’s Danny Ings has netted in just one of his last six at St Mary’s Stadium.

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