Sporting Life
Manchester United celebrate Mason Greenwood's goal at Brighton
Manchester United celebrate Mason Greenwood's goal at Brighton

Thursday's Premier League betting tips: Previews, predictions, latest odds and free tips on games including Aston Villa v Manchester United

By Paul Higham
Football
Thu July 09, 2020 · 4y ago

Three more games on Thursday night when we're backing Mason Greenwood, Southampton and goals on the south coast. Paul Higham explains.

Recommended bets

1pt Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals in Bournemouth v Spurs at 6/5

1pt Southampton to beat Everton at 12/5

1pt Mason Greenwood to score anytime at 2/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Bournemouth v Tottenham

You know you're bad when Tottenham are odds-on to beat you on your own patch, but that's the case with Bournemouth here, underdogs against Jose Mourinho's side who have only won three league games on the road all season. The Cherries only have four wins at home.

Their form at the Vitality has, ironically, not had much vitality in it and that's a major reason for their impending downfall - along with their incredible consistency in poor defending. One more goal against will make them the first team to concede 60 goals in five straight seasons in Premier League history, that's some going.

It's also a cause for hope for Mourinho - who has never lost away from home to a side in the relegation zone in his 24 games - and helps to explains those 7/10 odds that you just can't be interested in given this Spurs side - even if they are 21 points better than Bournemouth.

Spurs won a snoozefest against Everton at home but their last away game at Sheffield United summed them up, shipping three against one of the lowest-scoring teams who'd only scored 17 goals in 15 home games before that.

And that's the hope for both Bournemouth and us as we play the both teams to score and over 2.5 goals market. I actually think the over 2.5 goals (4/5) is a better shout on its own than both teams scoring (8/11) as I can see a scenario where Spurs score first and Bournemouth crumble.

I'm not confident enough to include anything backing a Spurs win, but am comfortable with rolling those two stats up at odds-against.

Prediction: Bournemouth 2-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)

Best bet: Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals at 6/5

Bournemouth v Tottenham - Opta stats

  • Bournemouth have lost seven of their nine Premier League meetings with Spurs (W1 D1), though that one victory did come in this exact fixture last season courtesy of Nathan Ake’s 90th minute winner.
  • Bournemouth have lost seven of their last eight Premier League games, including each of their last five in a row. They’ve shipped 21 goals in these eight games, netting just seven.
  • Bournemouth have lost 20 Premier League games this season, more than they have in any of their five campaigns in the competition. Seven of these defeats have been at home, with the Cherries only losing more at the Vitality Stadium in their debut season in the competition in 2015-16 (9).
  • Tottenham have picked up just 15 points from their 16 Premier League games on the road this season (W3 D6 L7), with only Aston Villa (0) keeping fewer clean sheets on the road than Spurs (1).
  • Tottenham’s Harry Kane has scored seven goals in seven Premier League games against Bournemouth, though six of these came in his first three appearances against them.
  • Bournemouth’s Josh King – who scored and assisted for the Cherries last time out against Manchester United – is looking to score in consecutive Premier League games for the first time since January 2019.

Everton v Southampton

Differing fortunes in their last outings for these two - as improving Southampton stunned the largest TV audience a Premier League game has ever had when beating Man City on Sunday, before Everton had viewers switching off in their droves as they stunk up north London in that dour defeat at Spurs.

That was Everton's first loss since the restart but they've hardly been a treat on the eyes with just two goals scored in four games - and they now face the fifth-best away team in the league who will be on a massive high.

Who will win the Premier League Golden Boot? We look at the contenders

Danny Ings is gunning for the Golden Boot and has scored on his last two trips to Goodison Park - he's 5/4 to make that three in a row and a Price Boosted 4/1 to score first - which he's done eight times already this season.

Everton haven't lost at home in nine league games but if they don't raise their game then Ralph Hasenhuttl's side will have too much pace, threat and dogged determination.

With just a point between them, they are clearly well-matched sides but Saints' form, especially on the road, make their price too good to turn down.

Prediction: Everton 1-2 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

Best bet: Southampton to beat Everton at 12/5

Everton v Southampton Opta stats

  • Southampton have won three of their last four Premier League matches (L1), winning the last two in a row. Saints last won three consecutive matches in the competition in May 2016 under Ronald Koeman (4 wins).
  • Southampton have scored 25 goals from outside the area in the Premier League in the last two seasons (11 in 2019-20 & 14 in 2018-19); as many as they’d netted between 2013-14 and 2017-18.
  • Southampton’s Danny Ings has scored in four different Premier League games against Everton but hasn’t been on the winning side in any of them (D1 L3). Only three players have scored in more different Premier League games against an opponent without winning – Alan Shearer v Liverpool (7), Teddy Sheringham v Chelsea (6) and Mark Viduka v Manchester United (5).
  • Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored more Premier League goals at home than any other Everton player this season (7 goals in 14 apps), with his tally of seven as many as he’d netted at Goodison Park in his previous three campaigns combined (7 goals in 40 apps).
  • Southampton’s Che Adams scored the winner against Manchester City last time out (1-0), which was his first league goal in 456 days, last netting against Leeds United in the Championship in April 2019. Adams last scored in consecutive league appearances in February 2019 (a run of 6).

Aston Villa v Man United

This could be a big game for Jack Grealish, who has had plenty of people talking about him as a future Man Utd player, but there's not much chance he can avoid being on the losing side.

There was a lot to like about Villa's performance at Anfield, but they conceded at least two goals for the 20th time this season, that's the kind of defending that gets you relegated.

It's also the kind of defending that will get you blown away by this flying free-scoring Man Utd side, who have banged in 11 goals in their last three league wins.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has found a scintillating front three of Marcus Rashford, Anthony Martial and Mason Greenwood that could rival any around the league - with Bruno Fernandes in behind looking the real deal. Five goals and six assists in his first nine Premier League games is a competition record.

Greenwood looks particularly exciting given his age, and the praise has been showered on him after recent weeks. Looking at the problems Mohamed Salah caused Villa when he could get in and around the box down that right channel, there's no reason why Greenwood can't get more joy here.

He's got eight goals in 918 Premier League minutes, that's 0.78 goals per 90 minutes - if you take out penalties that's a better rate than any other top striker in the league bar Sergio Aguero.

Prediction: Aston Villa 0-3 Man Utd (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Best bet: Mason Greenwood to score anytime at 2/1

Aston Villa v Manchester United Opta stats

  • Aston Villa have won just one of their last 42 Premier League meetings with Manchester United (D11 L30), with that victory coming at Old Trafford in December 2009 (1-0).
  • Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 20 Premier League away games against Aston Villa (W13 D7), since a 1-3 loss on the opening day of the 1995-96 season. It’s the longest unbeaten away run one team has had against another in top-flight history.
  • Manchester United are looking to become the first team in Premier League history to win four consecutive matches by a margin of 3+ goals.
  • Manchester United are unbeaten in nine Premier League games (W6 D3), the longest current run in the competition. Indeed, only Liverpool (27) and Wolves (11) have had longer unbeaten runs this term.
  • Bruno Fernandes has already been involved in 11 goals in his nine Premier League matches. In Premier League history, only five players have had as many as 12 goal involvements in their first 10 games in the competition – Mick Quinn (13), Alan Shearer, Kevin Phillips, Sergio Agüero and Papiss Cissé (all 12).
  • Mason Greenwood has scored 15 goals in all competitions for Manchester United this season – the only teenagers to score more goals for the Red Devils in a season are George Best in 1965-66, Brian Kidd in 1967-68 and Wayne Rooney in 2004-05 (all 17 goals).

Odds correct as of 1700 BST on 08/07/20

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