The Europa League continues on Thursday and Tom Carnduff has best bets for contests involving Arsenal, Leicester and Tottenham.
Recommended bets
1pt James Maddison to score anytime in Braga v Leicester at 18/5
0.5pts James Maddison to score from outside the area in Braga v Leicester at 11/1
1pt Arsenal to win from behind v Molde at 17/2
2pts Ludogorets to score 1+ goals v Tottenham at 13/8
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Tottenham v Ludogorets
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 2
- Match odds: Home 1/11 | Draw 8/1 | Away 20/1
A game that is massively one-sided in the betting but with good reason, Tottenham should secure victory with a few goals as they welcome bottom of the group Ludogorets to North London. Given the fact that Antwerp and LASK are also on six points, goal difference could become important and they need to score multiple times here.
Tottenham won 3-1 in their recent trip to Bulgaria and we can expect a similar scoreline here given the amount of goals Ludogorets are seeing. Scoring goals isn't an issue, it's just keeping them out that is proving problematic - five of their last six games in all competitions have seen over 2.5 goals.
In fact, they have scored in their last 15 games but have conceded in eight of those games. Both teams scoring has landed in their three Europa League contests so far and we can expect that to continue here.
A confusing one in the odds is that both teams to score is 6/4 while Ludogorets scoring once is 13/8. Now, Tottenham will score, multiple times, but the better price comes in taking the visitors netting at least one rather than the BTTS selection which carries added 'risk'.
Spurs' win over Manchester City came with two goals from two shots on target while West Brom posted an xG figure just shy of one (0.98) in their recent 1-0 defeat. Ludogorets aren't the same calibre of opponent but even in these games where Tottenham have kept clean sheets, they could well have conceded.
And, of course, Ludogorets did score in that recent meeting so they can find a way past this Tottenham side, and a team that should have a few changes in it given the relentless nature of the fixture list currently. Spurs' full focus will surely be on Sunday's huge clash with Chelsea.
They will still have a fairly strong side here but changes in the defensive areas are likely. That will give Ludogorets further opportunity to strike - a team that have scored five goals across their Europa League campaign. You have to go back to the Bulgarian Cup defeat to Levski in March for the last time Ludogorets failed to net on the road.
Score prediction: Tottenham 3-1 Ludogorets (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: Ludogorets to score 1+ goals at 13/8
Opta facts
- Tottenham have won both of their previous meetings with Bulgarian opposition (2-1 v Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 3-1 v Ludogorets), with this the first time they’ve hosted a Bulgarian side.
- Ludogorets have lost four of their five meetings with English sides in all competitions (D1), conceding 16 goals in the process. Their only previous visit to London ended in a 0-6 defeat to Arsenal in October 2016.
- None of Tottenham’s last 16 home games in European competition has ended in a draw, with Spurs winning 11 and losing five. There have been 62 goals netted in these 16 games, with Tottenham scoring 40 and conceding 22.
- Ludogorets have conceded four goals via set pieces this season in the UEFA Europa League, the most of any side.
- Ludogorets have faced the most shots of any side in the Europa League so far this season (62), while only five sides have had more attempts at goal than Tottenham (50).
Braga v Leicester
- 17:55 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 11/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 21/20
Leicester may have been disappointing in their defeat to Liverpool at Anfield last time out, but the focus will now fully be on the trip to Braga with victory ensuring that they will almost certainly finish top of Group G and get a better draw in the knockout stages.
The Foxes have been high scorers in this competition, nine across three games, with Braga the subject of a 4-0 hammering when the two met at the King Power Stadium a couple of weeks ago. It may not be as one sided this time around, but we can expect goals given recent records.
Both teams have seen four of their last five games having over 2.5 goals, with the only game to fall short being a 1-0 victory in their favour. That game at Liverpool was the first time that Leicester have failed to find the net on their travels this season, while Braga have scored six across their last three home games.
It's not a surprise to see over 2.5 goals available at an odds-on 8/11 price, even if we factor in the circumstances around this game. Victory is important but that shouldn't put Leicester into a negative mindset, quality in attack and an ability to break forward with pace are two very clear strengths.
Leicester should go with a very strong side given the importance of the fixture and that should mean another start for James Maddison in attacking midfield. He has two goals in the Europa League this season and landed a 7/2 winning tip in the last preview as he netted in the reverse fixture.
His performances remain solid enough and that's why the 18/5 on another goal is worth backing here. Backing goals in a variety of markets fails to break even money and the same can be said for Jamie Vardy's anytime goalscorer odds - he is a best price of 10/11 to strike.
Across Maddison's three starts in the Premier League this season, he has had a total of six shots, while also managing a couple from the bench before that. In the Europa League, that statistic jumps up to three per game, with two being on target when, of course, he scored against Braga.
That 18/5 is a great price but it's also worth a small play on the 11/1 available with Sky Bet on that goal coming from outside of the area. Of the nine shots in the Europa League this season, six have come from distance. In the Premier League, the rate of shots coming from outside the box is five from six.
It's not as if he can't strike from distance either. We have seen on multiple occasions throughout his career that he can score from range and, in all honesty, it's a bet that can always be considered when he is playing. 18/5 on the goal is great but the 11/1 is also an attractive enough price to back alongside it.
Both teams will fancy their chances of victory but when it comes to the outright market, it's best to disregard that Leicester performance at Liverpool and have enough confidence in their 21/20 price on Thursday. Instead, the bigger price comes in the goalscorer market and taking Maddison to strike at some point in the contest.
Score prediction: Braga 1-2 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Best bet: James Maddison to score anytime at 18/5
Best bet: James Maddison to score from outside the area at 11/1
Opta facts
- Leicester will be the ninth different English side that Braga have hosted in European competition – they are winless in their last two such matches, losing 1-3 to Man Utd in November 2012 and drawing 3-3 with Wolves in November 2019.
- Leicester’s only previous away game against Portuguese opposition saw them lose 0-5 to Porto in the UEFA Champions League in December 2016.
- Braga have lost three of their last five matches in the UEFA Europa League (W2), having been unbeaten in seven games prior to this run (W5 D2).
- Leicester have won each of their last three games in European competition and could win four in a row for the first time in their history.
- Leicester’s Kelechi Iheanacho has been directly involved in six goals in the UEFA Europa League this season (three goals & three assists), the joint-most of any player alongside Lille’s Yusuf Yazıcı (six goals).
Molde v Arsenal
- 17:55 GMT on BT Sport 2
- Match odds: Home 10/3 | Draw 29/10 | Away 7/10
Arsenal hammered Molde 4-1 when these two met recently but they have been disappointing in the games that followed. They were beaten 3-0 by Aston Villa and picked up a 0-0 draw at Leeds, although that should have been a game that ended in defeat given the amount of times Leeds hit the woodwork.
Mikel Arteta was clearly angry with Nicolas Pepe after he was shown a straight red card for a headbutt last time out and it doesn't appear likely that the winger will be selected here following his actions - Pepe scored in the victory over Molde at the start of the month.
Despite recent form, the Gunners are odds-on for victory and in all honesty should be targeting a win in every group game given the calibre of their opponent. Molde are their closest challengers but they did beat them convincingly while Dundalk won't provide a threat and Rapid Vienna losing two of their three so far.
This is a game where little stands out given how one team is odds-on but the one price that did catch the eye is the 17/2 available on Arsenal to win from behind. It's usually a tough ask for a side but it's been a theme for Arsenal in this competition so far.
Molde took the lead at the Emirates but Arsenal came back to win 4-1. In their trip to Vienna, Rapid netted first but David Luiz and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang struck to secure the points in a 2-1 victory. Factor in that Molde have scored first in five of their last six in all competitions and they could well take the lead at some point.
The hosts are 6/4 to score the first goal but if that comes early, as it did in the first game (21st minute), then it's unlikely they will slip into an odds-on price in-play. Arsenal will still likely be favourites throughout and that 17/2 is worth a play. The Gunners have conceded first in two of their last three and should have gone behind at Leeds.
Both teams scoring with over 2.5 goals in the match looks another solid bet at 10/11 if there is some reluctance to gamble on Molde striking first. Arteta hasn't committed to a full strength side in this competition so far and it's unlikely we will see that on Thursday night, even if victory would all-but-secure top spot for them.
Score prediction: Molde 1-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Arsenal to win from behind at 17/2
Opta facts
- Norwegian sides have lost their last four home meetings with English sides in all European competition by an aggregate score of 0-11, with Molde v Arsenal the first such game since Tromsø IL’s 0-2 defeat against Tottenham Hotspur in the Europa League in November 2013.
- Molde had won three UEFA Europa League matches in a row before Arsenal beat them 4-1 in the reverse fixture earlier this month – they haven’t lost consecutive matches in the competition since a run of a three games in October/November 2012.
- Arsenal have only been defeated once in their last 14 away games in the group stages of a major European competition (W10 D3), against FC Köln in November 2017 in the only game they’ve failed to score in during this run.
- Arsenal have scored at least once in each of their last 19 matches in major European competition (43 goals in total); they’ve only had a longer run once – 21 games between October 2003 and November 2005.
- No Arsenal player has scored more goals (2), made more assists (2), taken more shots (11) or created more chances (8) than Nicolas Pépé in the UEFA Europa League this season.
Odds correct at 1230 GMT (24/11/20)
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