Sporting Life
Our best bets for the latest round of Europa League fixtures
Our best bets for the latest round of Europa League fixtures

Europa League betting tips: Thursday's preview, predictions & latest odds

By Joe Townsend
Football
Thu August 06, 2020 · 4y ago

Preview, predictions & latest odds for Thursday's Europa League round of 16 clashes including Wolves and Rangers.

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Bayer Leverkusen v Rangers (3-1 agg)

Ryan Kent celebrates his goal against Braga

I'm confident that I won't be eating my words when I say this tie is as good as over. Rangers had a very slim chance of turning things around until Leon Bailey's 88th minute goal at Ibrox ensured that even a 2-0 defeat for Leverkusen would be enough to send them through on away goals.

Peter Bosz's side started impressively following the Bundesliga's restart before tailing off and missing out on Champions League qualification, so you'd think they'll be right on it. Overall, they won five games, lost three and drew one, managing only two clean sheets.

We don't have as recent a sample size for Rangers, who began their 2020/21 Scottish Premiership season with a 1-0 win at Aberdeen on Saturday, so instead I'll look at the longer-term: only five times in their past 53 matches have Steven Gerrard's side failed to find the net.

The German club should be too good which makes Leverkusen to win and BTTS at 11/5 a nice bet.

Now for the more speculative amongst us, but with good reason to back. Leverkusen's Kai Havertz is inevitable going to be heavily backed because of his supposedly imminent move to Chelsea, and the form he ended the season in. Likewise, Rangers striker Alfredo Morelos is being constantly linked with a move - the value just isn't there for either in the anytime market.

But Leverkusen defender Sven Bender to score anytime at 12/1 on the other hand. He scored three times in his final nine matches of the campaign, which makes that price a juicy one.

Don't back his brother Lars by accident though, whose odds are less than half his twin's having only featured twice post-lockdown, and taken 55 games to score his past three goals.

Score prediction: Leverkusen 2-1 Rangers (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Best bets:

Opta stats

  • This will be the fourth competitive meeting between Leverkusen and Rangers with each of the previous three all coming in the UEFA Cup/Europa League (one win each and one draw). Rangers’ only victory against Bayer Leverkusen came away from home, beating the Germans 2-1 in the last 32 of the 1998-99 UEFA Cup.
  • Rangers have won just one of their last 19 away matches against German opposition in major European competition (D8 L10), a 2-1 victory at Leverkusen in October 1998, failing to score in 14 of those games.
  • Bayer Leverkusen will be aiming to reach the quarter finals of the UEFA Cup/Europa League for the first time since 2007-08. The German side have lost just two of their 18 two legged knockout ties in major European competition having won the first leg, with their last such elimination coming against Atlético de Madrid in the last 16 of the 2014-15 Champions League campaign.
  • Rangers will need to overturn a 3-1 first leg defeat to reach the quarter finals of the UEFA Cup/Europa League for the first time since 2007-08 (losing finalists that year); Indeed, the Scottish side have progressed from each of their last two two legged knockout ties in major European competition when they’ve lost the first leg (against Marítimo in 2004-05 and Hapoel Tel Aviv in 2006-07).
  • Alfredo Morelos has been involved in seven of Rangers’ 13 Europa League goals this campaign (6 goals, 1 assist).

Wolves v Olympiakos (1-1 agg)

Pedro Neto celebrates his equaliser at Olympiacos

Now if you've read my previous previews on Wolves, this is going to feel like I've copied and pasted - and I have. It's rare that I'd highlight a tip that lost, but this is different because it didn't really.

Before their final match of the Premier League season away at Chelsea I wrote "seven of Wolves' past 10 games have been goalless at the break, with the three that didn't make it seeing goals in the 43rd, 45th and 41st minutes - so don't be scared to cash out!" I hope you did cash out, because Chelsea midfielder Mason Mount's scored a wonderful free-kick in first-half stoppage time.

Nuno's men head into the second leg of this last-16 tie with the advantage of an away goal, knowing a goalless draw will see them into the quarter-finals. There's no reason to think they'll be anything other than their usually cagey selves in the first half.

Olympiakos meanwhile have conceded just seven goals in their past 12 matches, so we shouldn't be expecting a goalfest. I'm sticking with the tip, which is widely available as half-time score 0-0 at 6/4 but a marginally better price can be found for Under 0.5 Goals in first half at 33/20.

I do think Wolves will get themselves into the last eight, and I think they'll win at Molineux too which presents a few different options. They've kept clean sheets in seven of their past eight home matches, winning six times, with Arsenal's 2-0 victory the only blemish: Wolves to win to nil is 8/5.

Four of their last five home games have seen two goals or fewer: Wolves/Under 2.5 Goals is 5/2. I think that's our best option, rather than the group bet 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at 13/8 although I must admit it's a real tempter.

The best price, and one I like and will be backing personally, is draw/Wolves at 7/2 in the half-time/full-time market. But with the tendency for goals to be scored between the 40th-minute and the break in Wolves matches, we'd be taking on extra risk for marginal gain and without the cash-out option - which I'll stress again, for the goalless half-time bet hover over that cash-out button!

Score prediction: Wolves 2-0 Olympiakos (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Best bets:

Opta stats

Wolves celebrate victory in the Europa League
  • This will be just the second competitive meeting between Wolves and Olympiakos, after the side’s 1-1 draw in Greece in the first leg.
  • Wolves’ Europa league campaign began over a year ago, playing their first qualifying game against Crusaders on 25th July 2019. The English side last progressed to the quarter finals of a major European competition back in 1972 in the UEFA Cup, going on to reach the final that season in which they were beaten by Tottenham.
  • Olympiakos have already knocked English opposition out of the Europa League this season, overcoming a first leg defeat to Arsenal in the previous round; Indeed the Greek side will be aiming to reach the quarter finals of a major European competition for the first time since the 1998-99 Champions League campaign.
  • Wolves have scored in all eight of their Europa League matches since their 0-1 defeat to Sporting Braga in their opening group game (18 goals in total).
  • Wolves’ Diogo Jota has scored a hat-trick in back-to-back Europa League appearances at Molineux (vs Besiktas & Espanyol) – the last player to score three hat-tricks in a single European season was Cristiano Ronaldo for Real Madrid during the 2015-16 Champions League campaign.

Sevilla v Roma

Opta stats

  • This will be the first ever competitive meeting between Sevilla and Roma; Indeed, Sevilla have won each of their last two encounters against Italian opposition, beating Lazio both home and away in last season’s Europa League last 32.
  • Roma have won just one of their last seven encounters against Spanish sides (D1 L5), failing to score in five of those matches.
  • Since the competitions re-branding in 2009-10, Sevilla have reached the quarter finals of the Europa League on three occasions, going on to win the competition each time (2013-14, 2014-15 & 2015-16).
  • Roma have lost just one of their last nine matches in the Europa League (W4 D4) and will be aiming to reach the quarter finals of the UEFA Cup/Europa league for the first time since 1998-99 (lost both home and away to Atlético de Madrid).
  • Sevilla have recorded more high turnovers (55 - sequences that start in open play and begin 40m or less from the opponent's goal) than any other side in this season’s Europa League, with 10 of those resulting in a shot and three of those being scored.

Basel v Frankfurt (3-0 agg)

Opta stats

  • This will be just the second competitive meeting between Basel and Eintracht Frankfurt, after the Swiss side’s 3-0 away victory in the first leg.
  • Eintracht Frankfurt have won two of their four away matches against Swiss opposition in European competition (D1 L1), although their last such victory came back in October 1977, beating FC Zürich 3-0 in the UEFA Cup.
  • Basel have won six of their last seven Europa League games (L1) including each of the last four without conceding. Since the competition’s re-branding in 2009-10, no side has won five consecutive matches in the tournament without conceding in any of those games.
  • The last side to lose the first leg of a two-legged knockout tie by 3+ goals in the Europa League and still progress was Valencia in the 2013-14 quarter finals against Eintracht Frankfurt’s opposition in this game, FC Basel.
  • Based on the quality on their chances, Basel have scored six goals more than expected in the Europa League this season (Expected Goals value of 12.7 scoring 19), the highest tally in the competition.

Odds correct as of 1400 BST on 05/08/20

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