Dave Tickner expects England to seal World Cup qualification - eventually - while Northern Ireland can spring a surprise.
It’s crunch time in the 2018 World Cup European qualifiers. While Belgium may be the only confirmed European qualifier heading to Russia next summer, plenty more sides are on the brink.
One of those sides is England, who have pulled up few trees in amassing 20 points from their eight games and now need just one more win either at home to Slovenia or away at Lithuania to be certain of their place.
It’s hardly controversial to suggest England should get that win against Slovenia on Thursday night. England have, after all, won their last 13 home qualifiers for Euros and World Cups going back to 2012, with 10 of those wins coming to nil.
But Thursday night may not be as straightforward as those bare stats suggest. Slovenia, with Atletico Madrid man Jan Oblak between the sticks, have proved a tough nut to crack in this campaign.
They held England to a goalless draw in Ljubljana this time last year and have conceded only four goals in their eight qualifiers to date.
England have hardly been prolific, with just 16 goals thus far in what was a kind group, but have themselves conceded only three and kept six clean sheets.
All the obvious markets therefore look a bit of value: under 2.5 goals or an England win to nil, both around evens, or England to win and under 2.5 goals at 2/1 or thereabouts.
To be honest, I’m tempted to be greedier still and go for England 1-0 at 11/2, but the best option may be for England to eventually get the job done after some all too familiar frustration.
Draw/England in the HT/FT market looks big at 100/30 given Slovenia’s defensive record; their last two away games have ended in 1-0 defeats against the other two decent teams in this section, Scotland and Slovakia, to goals scored in the 81st and 88th minutes.
Heading north now to Hampden Park, where both Scotland and Slovakia will be hoping England do get the job done as they focus on their three-way scrap with Slovenia for the runners-up spot.
Whoever wins in Glasgow on Thursday would therefore take a big step towards a possible World Cup play-off – especially the Slovakians, who end their campaign with a home gimme against whipping boys Malta.
But will either side take that step at all? Four of Scotland’s last seven home games have ended all square – two 1-1 and two 2-2 – while Slovakia beat both Malta and Lithuania on the road before being a touch unfortunate in going down 2-1 at Wembley last month. They also held Austria to a goalless draw in Vienna last year and only went down to a 74th-minute goal in a tight game against Slovenia in Ljubljana.
The layers are taking no chances with No Goalscorer priced up no bigger than 7/1 here, but the quotes about a draw look more than fair.
There’s a third home nation in action on Thursday night, as Northern Ireland host a Germany side yet to drop a point.
But there’s no doubt that this is the Germans’ toughest test yet, with Northern Ireland themselves amassing 19 points from eight games to guarantee themselves a play-off next month.
They could, in theory, still catch the Germans and have the freedom to give this a full go. They have nothing to lose.
And their home record is immense, having won all four of their home qualifiers thus far without conceding a goal. Clearly, this is a significant step up in class but I’m just not sure Northern Ireland should be 12/1 to beat anyone at Windsor Park right now.
German football is not exactly in the best place right now, with Bayern Munich enduring a torrid start to the season and plenty of clubs struggling in Europe; Borussia Dortmund even suffered the ultimate humiliation of losing to Tottenham at Wembley.
Two years ago Germany were beaten by the Republic of Ireland in Dublin during a Euro 2016 qualifying campaign where they also lost in Poland. Northern Ireland are on that level now, and the double-figure quotes are insulting.
Recommended bets: Thursday World Cup qualifiers
- 1.5pts Draw/England HT/FT v Slovenia at 100/30 – England have laboured through qualifying, and Slovenia tough to break down
- 2pts Scotland and Slovakia to draw at 56/25 – Four of Scotland’s last seven at Hampden have ended all square, little between this pair
- 1pt Northern Ireland to beat Germany at 12/1 – Huge price given Northern Ireland’s home record and German football’s current malaise
Posted at 1420 BST on 03/10/17