Free betting tips and match preview: Sky Bet Championship play-off final - Brentford v Fulham
Tuesday sees the Sky Bet Championship play-off final between Brentford and Fulham at Wembley. Tom Carnduff picks out three best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Joe Bryan to have 4+ successful tackles at evens
1pt Tom Cairney to have 2+ total shots at 2/1
1pt Anthony Knockaert to be shown a card at 9/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Brentford v Fulham (19:45 BST, Tuesday, August 4 on Sky Sports Football)
The Sky Bet Championship season got underway with Luton's 3-3 draw against Middlesbrough on August 2, 2019. On August 4, 2020, the play-off final between Brentford and Fulham takes place.
We all know the circumstances surrounding the delayed season but we're one game away from the conclusion of a campaign filled with highs and lows; twists and turns.
Perhaps the biggest downside (if there is one) to being promoted through the play-offs this year is the fact the winner will have around five weeks to prepare for the beginning of the Premier League season. It's far from ideal, but you can guarantee Thomas Frank or Scott Parker won't mind that whatsoever if they're dancing on the Wembley pitch at around 10pm on Tuesday.
Fulham were Sporting Life's outright selection for success at a price of 5/2 prior to the play-offs beginning. They are the outsiders here, and while Brentford's attack has proven a nightmare for the majority of the season, the Cottagers still possess every chance of a play-off return.
The second legs were incredible entertainment but provided two contrasting images at full-time. Brentford, a club who have been outside of the top-flight since 1947, were in full celebration mode as they overturned a 1-0 deficit to beat Swansea 3-2 on aggregate.
Just 24 hours later, in the same area of London, Fulham's post-match scenes were a stark contrast despite the outcome being the same.
Parker had his team in a huddle, giving his thoughts with a stern look on his face. They'd lost on the night to Cardiff and a similar performance here will surely condemn them to another season in the second tier.
Fulham have held themselves in high regard throughout the season, as they should with the talent in their squad, and they knew that their showing in the game against Cardiff at Craven Cottage was well below what they expect. Could that work in their favour here? We can almost guarantee that complacency won't be an issue on the back of their last outing.
Brentford beat Fulham 2-0 in the first game following the season restart but it's difficult to include that as reasoning for an outright result here. Fulham's performance on the day suggests that the scoreline somewhat flattered Brentford and it was, of course, a game on the back of a lengthy spell without competitive football. You'd be forgiven for disregarding results across that weekend when it comes to deciding future results.
On to the best bets in this contest and the statistics markets provide some good value. The first of which involves Joe Bryan in the tackles market; the Fulham full-back could be in for a busy evening with Bryan Mbeumo on the right wing for Brentford.
In our other analysis pieces for this game, a big point of discussion for this game is how Brentford approach it in terms of 'home' or 'away'.
That affects the distribution from Ollie Watkins in the striker role. For home games, he is clearly looking to play Said Benrahma in behind the full-backs more or give possession to the winger whereas away there is more of a reliance to look to the centre midfielders.
Therefore, Fulham could focus more of their attention on trying to keep Benrahma quiet and that will open up opportunities for Mbeumo - a player who netted in that second leg success against Swansea.
Brentford will know how attacking Fulham's full-backs are and that will mean there is room to exploit behind as they break forward quickly. We saw an excellent counter-attacking goal in the win over Swansea and there is every chance that could happen again if Fulham are caught with too many men up field.
Sky Bet have Bryan at even money to make at least four successful tackles in this contest. That appears a high total on face value but his record this season shows that he has regularly hit it. That has happened on 14 separate occasions which includes the recent defeat to Brentford post-lockdown.
Staying with Fulham and the 2/1 available with Sky Bet or Betfair for Tom Cairney to have two or more total shots is worth a play. His form this season hasn't perhaps hit the heights we've seen in the past but he does possess an attacking threat.
The midfielder has netted eight goals in 39 Championship appearances this season and famously scored the winner when Fulham beat Aston Villa in this contest two seasons ago.
On his day, Cairney is a wonderful midfielder with all the right attributes for an attack-minded team. He can pick out the right pass or take on an opportunity himself; those eight goals despite mixed form during the course of the campaign reflects that he is still someone who can contribute.
When it comes to those shots, 2/1 on two or more seems quite generous. That has happened in 15 different league games this season which included their home draw with West Brom and both semi-final games against Cardiff. Any effort towards goal will count in this statistic and there's a great chance he will hit the milestone of two if it's an open game with both sides looking to attack.
Martin Atkinson has been appointed the referee and that could bring cards. The official showed six yellows and one red in two of his last three Premier League games (Aston Villa 2-0 Crystal Palace; Leicester 0-2 Manchester United).
One player who could catch his attention is Anthony Knockaert. The Fulham winger is better known for his impact in attack but has six yellows on his tally this season - three of which have come post-lockdown.
There's been at least one foul in each of his last six outings, three of which had two or more, and he could be drawn into committing fouls if Brentford can force him back into defending the wide areas. At a big price of 9/2, in what will be a very competitive game, it is worth a small play.
As mentioned earlier, Fulham were Sporting Life's selection as the winner in our outright preview and, while Brentford are fancied, there's enough confidence to stick with them and back them for promotion here.
It's not worth going with their price on the night given how we already have a 5/2 from that previous preview but it could well be a contest that needs more than 90 minutes to separate the two teams. It was 0-0 at Craven Cottage until Benrahma struck in the 88th minute back in June.
Neither of the other Sky Bet EFL play-off finals have required extra-time but two fairly even matched teams could well force additional time at the national stadium. The contrasting outcomes last week will also play a part in that.
Parker will expect a response and Fulham have to provide one. For Brentford, they're flying high after putting a three-game losing streak behind them.
This is going to be a fantastic game for the neutral and the best play-off final we could have been given this season.
Score prediction: Brentford 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best bet: Joe Bryan to have 4+ successful tackles at Evens
Opta facts
- Fulham have reached the Championship play-off final for the second time in the last three seasons, also beating Aston Villa 1-0 at Wembley in 2018 thanks to a Tom Cairney winner.
- This will be Brentford’s fourth play-off final and first since 2013 when in the third tier (1-2 defeat by Yeovil). Indeed, the Bees have lost each of their three play-off final matches and should they fail to gain promotion once more, they will have taken part in more unsuccessful play-off campaigns than any other side (currently 8, level with Sheff Utd).
- Brentford are currently unbeaten in five games against Fulham (W3 D2) and have only suffered one defeat in the last 10 clashes between the sides (W6 D3).
- Fulham have lost as many games against Brentford in their last four meetings (3) as they did in the previous 12 matches beforehand (W5 D4 L3).
- This will be just the second ever all London tie to grace the Championship play-off final, after Crystal Palace against West Ham in 2004 – the Eagles running out 1-0 winners thanks to a Neil Shipperley goal.
- Fulham have lost two of their three matches in all competitions at Wembley (beating Aston Villa in the 2018 play-off final), losing 0-2 to West Ham in the 1975 FA Cup final before a 1-3 defeat against Spurs in the Premier League.
- Among sides to have lost 100% of their games at Wembley, no team have played at the venue more often than Brentford (5, joint-most with Shrewsbury Town).
- During the regular league season, Brentford’s Saïd Benrahma was involved in 306 open play sequences which ended with his team having an attempt at goal, at least 57 more than any other player in the division.
- Neeskens Kebano has scored five goals and at least once each in his last four appearances for Fulham, netting as many as he had over his previous 57 games in all competitions for the club.
- Saïd Benrahma has been directly involved in all three of Brentford's goals against Fulham in the Championship this season (one goal and two assists) – indeed, no player had a hand in more league goals against Fulham than Benrahma during the regular season.
- Both Fulham striker Aleksandar Mitrovic and Brentford hitman Ollie Watkins sit on 49 goals each for their current side, with both also enjoying 28 of their goals on home soil and 21 away.
Second leg highlights
Odds correct at 1200 BST (03/08/20)
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