Premier League sack race odds: Ralph Hasenhuttl, Steve Bruce, Xisco Munoz - men under pressure?
Put aside the questionable morality of betting on someone to lose their job for a moment and there's no denying that the 'Sack Race' market is always one of the most intriguing out there.
But are Premier League clubs themselves developing a few more morals? And patience along with it?
There were only four managerial changes in the top flight in the whole of last season - Slaven Bilic, Frank Lampard, Chris Wilder and Jose Mourinho the men to fall on their swords - and the first of those did not occur until December 16 when West Brom sacked Bilic.
Now, obviously, the 2020-21 campaign began later than usual, but that first parting of the ways was still more than three months into the season - and both of those things, the small number of sackings and the late date of the first, are real anomalies compared to previous seasons.
Premier League managerial changes by season
2020-21: Four (Bilic, Lampard, Wilder, Mourinho). First departure: 16 December 2020.
2019-20: Seven (Gracia, Pochettino, Emery, Flores, Silva, Pellegrini, Pearson). First departure: 7 September 2019.
2018-19: Six (Jokanovic, Hughes, Mourinho, Wagner, Puel, Ranieri). First departure: 14 November 2018.
2017-18: Ten (De Boer, Shakespeare, Koeman, Bilic, Pulis, Clement, Hughes, Silva, Pellegrino, Pardew). First departure: 11 September 2017.
2016-17: Six (Guidolin, Pardew, Bradley, Phelan, Ranieri, Karanka). First departure: 3 October 2016.
Following the end of the campaign, three further bosses left by mutual consent - Roy Hodgson at Crystal Palace, Nuno Espirito Santo at Wolves and Carlo Ancelotti swapping Everton for Real Madrid - but there does seem, overall, more stability generally.
Managerial stability is not a phrase associated with one of the Premier League's newcomers this season, however.
Who is Watford manager now?
You would be forgiven for having no idea who is in the dugout at Vicarage Road at the moment given the regularity with which the Hornets change head coaches. Indeed, it should be no surprise that current Watford boss XISCO MUNOZ heads the Sack Race betting.
In fact, the big surprise is that he's as long as 6/1 to be the first manager to get the bullet.
Since the Pozzo family took over in 2012 and jettisoned Sean Dyche for the much more glamorous Gianfranco Zola, 13 managers have graced the Watford hotseat. That's an average of around eight months per boss. Given Munoz took over in December 2020, the clock is ticking, no?
Success is no guarantee of longevity either - Slavisa Jokanovic led Watford to promotion to the Premier League in 2015. His reward? No new deal.
His successors Quique Sanchez Flores and Walter Mazzarri secured survival in each of the following two seasons. Sacked.
Next Premier League Manager to Leave (odds via Sky Bet)
- 6/1 - Xisco Munoz
- 7/1 - Patrick Vieira
- 8/1 - Ralph Hasenhuttl
- 9/1 - Steve Bruce
- 10/1 - Mikel Arteta
- 12/1 - Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, Rafael Benitez
- 14/1 - Daniel Farke, Thomas Frank, Bruno Lage
Odds correct at 1100 BST (06/08/21)
Javi Gracia was the first Premier League manager to be sacked in 2019-20, just a few weeks into the season and four months after leading Watford out for an FA Cup final at Wembley. It's not difficult to see Munoz going the same way unless the Hornets start well.
They do have a fairly inviting opening few fixtures on paper - home games with Aston Villa, Wolves and Newcastle, away trips to Brighton, Tottenham and Norwich - but a poor points haul would pile the pressure on given the giants they face in the following weeks.
The right man is definitely favourite, but the price is still an inviting one.
Who will be the first Premier League manager sacked?
It's worth looking at a list of the clubs who have made the first managerial change in, say, the past 10 seasons - West Brom, Watford, Fulham, Crystal Palace, Swansea, Sunderland, Crystal Palace, Sunderland, Chelsea, Sunderland.
Chelsea are the obvious outlier there with the sacking of Roberto di Matteo in 2012 - but other than that, we can take the pattern as an indicator that it's unlikely to be a 'big gun' pulling the trigger. It's incredibly likely to be a bottom-half team.
New Crystal Palace manager PATRICK VIEIRA is a Premier League rookie as a boss, remember, and will have his backers in this market given how ruthlessly the Eagles cast aside Frank de Boer just four games into his reign in 2017/18.
Palace do have a tough start - Chelsea, West Ham and Liverpool away and Spurs at home among their first five - and Vieira warrants consideration, especially given the squad he inherited was lucky not to go down last term judging by Infogol's expected goals (xG) metrics.
The xG table suggested Palace should have finished 18th rather than 14th - a scathing indictment of their performances when you consider they actually finished 16 points clear of the relegation places.
The Eagles' xG of 38.8 was lower than every team bar bottom side Sheffield United so there are creative concerns for Vieira to address along with shoring up a defence that conceded the third-most in both actual (66) and expected (67.2) goals.
Unless Vieira can oversee a seismic turnaround following a gradual, and then steep, decline in performances from Palace under predecessor Roy Hodgson, his spell in south London may be short-lived.
STEVE BRUCE is another manager who seems to be under constant pressure.
The poor fella deserves a break. He's been riding high in these markets virtually since the day he took over at Newcastle - and he's still right up there.
Of all the managers on the list, he springs out as the one most likely to be negatively affected by the return of fans to grounds. The Toon Army have made no secret of their dislike for Bruce and he'll be on the end of some stick if the Magpies start poorly.
Newcastle owner Mike Ashley, though, has stuck by his man through thick and thin. It will likely require a disastrous start for him to wield the axe, given how well the Magpies finished last season.
Which teams have the toughest starts?
If you're seeking a team that could very well be on a small number of points after nine or 10 games - perhaps causing their board to develop an itchy trigger finger as a result - then look no further than Norwich.
The fabled fixture computer has been horrible to the Canaries - Liverpool and Leicester at home, Manchester City, Arsenal and Everton away all among their first six games on their return to the top flight, with Chelsea and Leeds not long after.
It does make the 12/1 on Daniel Farke to be the first manager to leave worth a look, but Norwich kept faith with him when they were relegated two seasons ago and he's led them to the Sky Bet Championship title twice either side.
He has so much goodwill in the bank it's tough to see the Canaries shedding him early, if at all - and you could say similar about Brentford boss Thomas Frank after the Dane ended the Bees' 74-year top-flight absence.
Elsewhere, while the appointments of Rafa Benitez and Nuno at Tottenham have not exactly set hearts racing among either set of supporters, but it's difficult to see the Spaniard (10/1) or the Portuguese (16/1) getting the boot in short order.
I'd be more inclined to look at the 10/1 about Southampton boss RALPH HASENHUTTL.
A slow start, after the Saints' awful, awful run in the second half of last season when they lost 15 of their final 21 games, and he will be right under the cosh.
Danny Ings' departure to Aston Villa is a bitter blow to Saints' chances, and with an opening run of games that features Everton, Manchester United, West Ham, Manchester City and Leeds in their first eight, King Ralph's reign looks precarious at St Mary's.
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