The Kelly Criterion: Will this be the best Premier League season ever?

By Liam Kelly

Football

Fri August 25, 2023 · 1y ago

More, more, more. How do you like it? How do you like it?

Maybe I’m being hyperbolic, but it certainly feels like there is more of everything in the Premier League this season.

I like it. And how! I sincerely believe this could be the most entertaining season of top tier football in my lifetime thus far.

Directives for time added on and the new refereeing initiatives in general have instantly improved my enjoyment of the sport, but it’s the composition of the teams in the league that has me so enthusiastic for this 2023/24 campaign, especially after watching the first two gameweeks of the season.

I can now name more clubs that have the character and confidence to execute a gameplan within the confines, or expanses, of their own base ideologies than not.

That number is growing as the Premier League continues to cement itself as the premium destination for both players and managers, and it’s making for some excellent viewing.

Saturday’s match-up between Tottenham and Manchester United is a perfect example.

Sat in front of the television pre-match, I was bullish that it would deliver action and entertainment given both Ange Postecoglou and Erik ten Hag know exactly what they want from their players and are willing to accept mistakes for the greater good.

The recent focus on 'spacing' and 'stretching the floor' in basketball has resulted in an uptick in almost all offensive metrics in the sport, and a similar revolution has been taking place at all levels of the Premier League. From Brighton to Bournemouth to Burnley, exploitation of the ample space a football pitch provides is in vogue.

I hope it lasts. More space exploited and more time with the ball in-play is the space-time continuum I want to remain on.

Positives for the predictive

It’s still too early to be parsing many patterns from the data, but don’t underestimate just how beneficial it can be for predictive purposes to pay close attention to the opportunities that specific match-ups presents.

There's an extensive choice of betting markets to attempt to take advantage of now, and anything that makes this most unpredictable sport that touch more predictable is welcome from a punting perspective.

Crisis at Craven Cottage?

While I’m still reticent to pass judgement on teams at this early stage of the new Premier League season, Fulham’s current issue isn’t exactly new.

Aleksandar Mitrović’s departure will dominate the ClubCall headlines, raising the question of how they will score goals. How the Cottagers will stop conceding them might be the more pertinent one, however.

Silva shortens in sack race

Despite finishing in the top half last term, Fulham conceded the highest expected goals against total in the league, allowing an average of 1.9 xG per game. Through two games this season, Marco Silva’s side still appear extremely vulnerable as a defensive unit.

After shipping a total of 2.9 xG and 14 shots in the box in a 1-0 win at Everton last week, only left unpunished thanks to a mix of excellent goalkeeping from Bernd Leno and poor finishing, Fulham conceded 3.8 xG and 15 shots in the box at Brentford when deservedly hammered 3-0 at Craven Cottage on Saturday.

The schedule doesn’t get any kinder, either. They face seven of last season’s top eight in their next 12 Premier League fixtures, with trips to Arsenal and Manchester City immediately upcoming.

If there’s a crisis club in the offing, Fulham might be it.

Next Premier League Manager to Leave odds (via Sky Bet)

Paul Heckingbottom - 7/2
Sean Dyche - 11/2
David Moyes - 6/1
Rob Edwards - 7/1
Steve Cooper - 10/1
Ange Postecoglou, Marco Silva - 12/1
Gary O'Neil, Andoni Iraola - 14/1
20/1 bar

Odds correct at 0830 BST (22/08/23)

No notes discarded

Enzo Fernandez looks to have been given more freedom

To say each edition of this column will be evergreen would be misleading. However, I do hope information provided will not just be useful in the short-term, but the medium and long-term, too.

On that note, I do hope last week's Kelly Criterion remains relevant for some time and urge you to not immediately dismiss previous editions each week.

Building on positional pointers from last Monday, it does appear that Enzo Fernández has more freedom to move forward this season and will certainly pose problems with his passing abilities from the half-space.

It's always difficult to forecast Pep Guardiola's personnel decisions, but Phil Foden's performance against Newcastle on Saturday night surely puts him in pole position to fill the central creative void that Kevin De Bruyne leaves.

Foden's threat is more through progressive carrying than progressive passing, but he created seven open-play chances for City in their vital victory over Newcastle.

Don't forget to stay tuned for The Kelly Bet later in the week, where I'll try to put any information gained to good use!

Follow @LiamKellyTTA

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