The Kelly Bet: Tottenham-Chelsea rivalry to feature few goals
Liam Kelly selects a value bet of interest for the next round of Premier League fixtures in this week's Kelly Bet.
Football betting tips: The Kelly Bet
1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals in Tottenham vs Chelsea at 23/20 (General)
It's a shame the stunning arena that is the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium doesn't have a better name.
'Battle at the Bridge' captures the imagination when talking about some memorable rivalry matches when Tottenham visit Chelsea. White Hart Lane at least gave us options. The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, though? Meh.
In truth, the lacklustre name might suit this particular Monday Night Football game down to the ground, despite the fact these two sides often give us some great entertainment in the match-up.
Circumstances of the fixture alone make this watchable, though. Tottenham entered this round of Premier League games at the top of the standings, while Chelsea are somewhat labouring in mid-table.
Indeed, the juxtaposition of the two rivals as opposed to their league position is interesting.
Monday's youthful visitors are not quite living up to their potential just yet, an underperformance on key metrics costing Chelsea points at the start of Mauricio Pochettino's reign. Ange Postecoglou's Tottenham, on the other hand, are enjoying the fruits of overperformance on underlying numbers.
There's not much between them in the data, but I'm more intrigued by the pair's defensive numbers than anything else, with UNDER 2.5 GOALS making appeal at a surprising odds-against.
Spurs have conceded nine league goals this season, only two of which have been at home, averaging 1.24 expected goals (xG) against per game. Chelsea's underlying defensive numbers are even better, allowing an average of 1.13 xG per game despite conceding more goals in total (11).
It is not just the numbers that make the general 23/20 available for two goals or fewer of interest, however. Styles make fights and these sides might just cancel each other out in the way both coaches approach the game.
Both teams will likely be looking to patiently build from the back, happy to recycle the ball and wait for space to attack. Manchester City are the obvious leaders in Premier League possession percentage this season (63%), but Chelsea (61.8%) and Tottenham (61.6%) are not far behind Pep Guardiola's side, ranking second and third respectively.
With that in mind, unders looks the play.
Odds correct at 1730 BST (02/11/23)
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