Man Utd v Chelsea preview: Alex Keble picks out the key battles & tactics for the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley

We are fast approaching the one-year anniversary of Manchester United’s 4-0 victory over Chelsea on the opening weekend of the 2019/20 Premier League season, a game defined by United’s sharp counter-attacks and Chelsea’s vulnerability in the transition - as Jose Mourinho highlighted in the Sky Sports studio.

Opening and closing his fist to indicate the importance of recompressing shape once the ball is lost, Mourinho looked a little disappointed in his old friend’s tactical strategy.

Man Utd v Chelsea

• Sunday 7.45pm - BBC 1
• Match Odds: Man Utd 7/5 | Draw 12/5 | Chelsea 19/10

One year on, Frank Lampard has done little to change that first impression. Chelsea remain alarmingly open to counter-attacks, their players spread maddeningly across the pitch when in possession; the hand spread wide. By contrast, Man Utd have improved markedly since the beginning of the season, and now on a 19-game unbeaten run it is safe to say Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has proved his doubters wrong. United are heading in the right direction for the first time in seven years. A repeat of the 4-0 win in this Sunday’s FA Cup semi-final is not out of the question.

Solskjaer has shown a knack for tactical superiority in these ‘Big Six’ matches, invariably instructing his players to sit deep, absorb pressure, and burst forward on the counter-attack, making use of their watertight back four and explosive pace up front. It’s a system perfectly suited to exploiting Chelsea’s inability to screen their own possession, and any team unable to cope with transitions is in for a rough ride against this particular incarnation of Manchester United.

No matter the midfield combination the problem is always the same. An issue of team shape cannot be solved by individuals, hence why even N’Golo Kante looks overwhelmed at the base of midfield, asked to cover far too large an area of the field. Lampard will no doubt use a double pivot this weekend, most likely Kante alongside Jorginho, but as they try to unlock United’s deep defence gaps will inevitably appear.

And when they do, Paul Pogba and Bruno Fernandes will surely flourish. From longer balls in behind to assertive, line-breaking short passes into feet, the interactions between these two have helped release Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford into far more space than they were getting in the first half of the season. With one clever pass from either midfielder, United’s forwards can now attack the opposition defence as if striking on the counter-press.

Martial and Rashford have forged a phenomenal partnership that would terrify any Premier League defence, but particularly one relying upon Reece James and Marcus Christensen, both of whom are positionally inadequate to deal with quick movement and one-touch interchanges (Marcus Alonso cannot be trusted up against Mason Greenwood, so Cesar Azpilicueta is likely to be moved over to left-back).

With James expected to overlap as Chelsea probe, United’s new striker partnership should break down the left successfully, with the help of a largely untracked Pogba and Fernandes.

For Chelsea, their attacks will need to come down the opposite flank. Christian Pulisic in their only in-form attacker, and while his style is notably different from Eden Hazard his personality on the pitch is similar - in that Pulisic, driving directly at defenders to open up space, is being handed the ball over and over by a hesitant midfield lacking inspiration.

This weekend he faces Aaron Wan-Bissaka, a right-back ordinarily unplayable when one-on-one but whose occasionally sloppy performance against Crystal Palace gives Chelsea fans cause for optimism. Wilfried Zaha beat him a couple of times on the dribble, suggesting Pulisic can make this one of the game’s most important individual battles.

But aside from Pulisic, Chelsea lack fluency, a further sign that United’s compact defence can hold firm at Wembley. Tammy Abraham has scored just once in his last 13 appearances and Mason Mount is without an assist in 13 games, a problem that stood out in Chelsea’s most recent outing when it took an Olivier Giroud header to break down Norwich, the side with the division’s worst defensive record.

Harry Maguire will fancy his chances of shepherding Giroud, should he start, while Chelsea’s over-reliance on Pulisic theoretically allows United to double up on the American. Nemanja Matic, arguably the most improved player since the restart, will be back to do just that.

All of which points to a simple enough win for Man Utd, a side with a superior defence, midfield, and attack since the restart, as is reflected in their contrasting fortunes through the summer. While Solskjaer goes from strength to strength, Chelsea’s place in next season’s Champions League is no longer secure, with wins needed against both Wolves and Liverpool to guarantee a top-four finish.

Defeat in the FA Cup semi-final, then, could be the moment Lampard’s debut season is reassessed. To lose in a similar fashion to Chelsea’s 4-0 drubbing back in August – a distinct possibility – would be a damning indictment of the lack of progress their young manager has made.

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