Somewhat buried in the early slot on Sunday morning, Everton’s 3-2 victory over Fulham was quietly one of the most significant results of the weekend.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side ended a three-game losing streak at Craven Cottage and did so with a brand new formation – a 3-4-3 that reflected the manager’s anxiety following some alarming recent results.
In this chaotic and unpredictable Premier League season Everton are already into their third incarnation, having been bizarrely hyped for a top-four challenge after their surge to the top of the table in October before a mini-slump over the past month. Things will stabilise, eventually, but that chaos and unpredictability will no doubt be present for the visit of Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds.
If Everton’s campaign has been up and down, Leeds’ has been carnage; hammering Aston Villa, holding Arsenal and Manchester City as equals, getting thrashed by Crystal Palace. Already Bielsa’s debut campaign in the Premier League has had it all, reflecting the manic idealism of his tactical approach.
There have been 66 goals so far in 18 Leeds and Everton games this season, an average of 3.7 per match. If Everton continue with the 3-4-3 – and there is every reason to assume they will – then we should at least stick to that average on Saturday.
Everton’s new formation suits Leeds challenge
Having looked defensively vulnerable in their 4-3-3 formation, Ancelotti attempted to patch up the gaps that had opened on the right flank by switching to a 3-4-3 . The aim was to add an extra centre-back to cover the defender out wide, relieving James Rodriguez of defensive responsibilities, as well as increase Everton’s attacking numbers on both wings.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who scored twice against Fulham, said after the game that the first half ‘was a representation of me benefitting from the new system where I'm getting chances from wide areas, with crosses coming in.’ And indeed the presence of Alex Iwobi and Lucas Digne as attacking wing-backs, supported by Richarlison and Rodriguez in similar areas, allowed Everton to outnumber Fulham and get the ball into the box.
Leeds could well be vulnerable to this. Bielsa’s use of an aggressive man-to-man marking system in open play threatens to see their defenders pulled too far out of shape; Everton’s bunching of play into the wings may discombobulate the visitors, leading to space for Richarlison to drive diagonally into the penalty area.
More importantly, Leeds have struggled against back threes so far this season, losing 1-0 to Wolves and 4-1 to Leicester City. Bielsa tends to empty central midfield when in possession, targeting the flanks in high numbers, and this is inevitably less successful when faced with an opposition wing-back and wide centre-back: the 3-4-3 allows the wing-back to get tight without leaving a gap in behind.
Everton v Leeds
- 17:30 GMT on Sky Sports Main Event
- Match odds: Home 19/20 | Draw 14/5 | Away 5/2
Tom Carnduff
With Pablo Hernandez out through injury, Rodrigo should return to the starting XI having featured from the bench last time out. He scored against Manchester City and loves taking shots. His last five appearances for Leeds, three of which have been as a sub, have seen at least three shots in each.
Two of those shots against Arsenal came from outside the area, cutting onto his left foot and looking to find the far corner. Before that, his shots from outside the box rate was two from four against Villa and two from three against Sheffield United. Given how weak this Everton defence can be, he should enjoy a few more efforts here.
We're not looking for a 40-yard screamer, just one shot from near the D finding the net. That will be his most effective area and Rodrigo will score on multiple occasions from this area during his Leeds career. At 25/1, it's worth a small play on the Spanish international scoring from distance.
Elsewhere, Leeds could enjoy some success down Everton's right-hand side and that could mean an assist for Jack Harrison. The winger has two on his tally but could exploit a lack of tracking back from the hosts and grab another helper here. Betfair provide the best price of 5/1 on this happening.
Score prediction: Everton 2-2 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bets:
Click to read Tom Carnduff's preview in full
Bielsa’s tactics could create open game
Then again, the complexity of Leeds’ approach and the sheer numbers they pour forward in attack should make for an open contest – and at least a couple of goals for the visitors. Everton’s dreadful defensive record did not improve at Fulham, where the issues simply shifted from the gaps behind James to the centre of the pitch. This is an alarming prospect when welcoming Leeds to Goodison Park.
Bielsa looks to play incisive vertical football, with bodies bursting ahead of the play for direct balls into the channels and in behind. The essential - and fascinating - aspect of this is clever one-twos between the wingers and midfielders, in which the initial passer follows the ball with their run, rather than run at an angle to it, and receives a very short pass back to feet.
This is unique in the Premier League, and ensures the wide playmaker picks up the ball at pace in the middle of the park. What’s more, as soon as the winger passes the ball and follows it, a third player begins their forward run, creating a choreographed one-two-three. From this position, having broken the lines, Bielsa teams generally move the ball out to the opposite flank – but not if there is a gaping hole through the centre.
Both of Fulham’s goals on Saturday came from simple one-twos around the edge of the D, with Everton’s two-man midfield looking woefully under-stocked to leave their centre-backs flat-footed. That’s the risk Ancelotti runs when moving to a width-focused 3-4-3, and if Fulham can easily build possession here then Jack Harrison and Helder Costa should be able to burst menacingly from out to in.
The James issue if Ancelotti goes for 4-3-3
Should Everton revert to their 4-3-3 then Richarlison’s individual battle with Luke Ayling could define the contest at both ends. The Brazilian’s driving movement is integral to the Everton approach, not least because he makes room for Lucas Digne by vacating the left flank, while Ayling’s overlapping runs help Bielsa overload the wings (he packs three players here to outnumber the opponent).
Everton’s three-man midfield would largely restore order in the centre, although it would once again leave Ancelotti’s side highly vulnerable in the defensive areas behind James. His poor positional player (either failing to track back or failing to understand his role) has led directly to four opposition goals this season, with Southampton and Manchester United deliberately and repeatedly targeting Everton’s right in the last two games before the formation switch.
Harrison can excel, then, in turn feeding the in-form Patrick Bamford, who seems likely to get in between a substandard Everton centre-back partnership that has already conceded 16 Premier League goals this season.
Goals are fancied
No matter the Everton formation, there will be gaps for Leeds to charge into – and there will be goals at both ends. Richarlison, James, and Calvert-Lewin are a potent combination in any system and particularly strong when able to counter-attack, which they certainly will after one of Leeds’ super-charged attacks breaks down.
There is a clear pattern developing with Leeds matches. When they face well-structured outfits that prefer to regroup rather than counter (Wolves, Man City, Arsenal) the games are low-scoring. When they face teams willing to commit runners on the break and catch Bielsa’s side on the counter-counter (Crystal Palace, Leicester, Liverpool), the games have at least five goals.
Ancelotti is a manager who favours expansive football to a fault. Whatever happens on Saturday evening, it will be entertaining.
Odds correct at 1115 GMT (24/11/20)
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