Free betting tips and match preview: Champions League - Manchester City v Real Madrid
Manchester City will be looking to book their spot in the Champions League quarter-final as they face Real Madrid. Tom Carnduff picks out two best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Joao Cancelo to have 4+ tackles at 5/2
1pt Riyad Mahrez to have 3+ tackles at 7/2
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Manchester City v Real Madrid (20:00 BST, BT Sport)
After months of waiting, Manchester City can continue their quest to secure their first ever Champions League title as they welcome Real Madrid to the Etihad.
Pep Guardiola's side hold a 2-1 advantage from the first leg after Gabriel Jesus and Kevin De Bruyne cancelled out Isco's opener on the hour mark. That has made City the heavy 1/8 favourites to secure their spot in the quarter-final.
City are also the joint-favourites, with Bayern Munich, to win the trophy. They have been dealt a tough hand in their route to the final as Lyon or Juventus await in the quarter-finals before the possibility of Bayern, Napoli or Barcelona in the semis.
The eye-catching element of Real's squad news was the inclusion of Sergio Ramos, despite the fact that he is suspended for this game. That seemed to be another way to highlight just how out of favour Gareth Bale is in the Spanish capital.
The interesting point for City will be whether or not they look to operate De Bruyne in a false nine position again like they did in the first leg. For more insight on that, and how Guardiola typically approaches big games, read this by the excellent Richard Jolly.
This is set-up to be a fascinating contest and there is real value available in the stats markets. For both best bets, tackles are worth consideration and the first involves Joao Cancelo to have four or more successful tackles at a price of 5/2.
That may seem high on the surface, but a look into his statistics this season shows that it is a mark he regularly hits. Despite starting just 13 games in the Premier League, Cancelo has had four or more tackles in six of those.
With Benjamin Mendy suspended, Cancelo is likely to start at left-back again here as Guardiola has no issue with playing him in either full-back position. Three of his Champions League starts have also seen at least three tackles.
In a game where Real will have to find a way to score more than once in order to progress, there's every chance that Cancelo will be involved in the play heavily at times and his tackle count should increase as time goes on.
Another player to back in this area is Riyad Mahrez. The winger is better known for his attacking qualities but his defensive contribution is strong and that is partly why Guardiola is a fan.
His tally for this bet is the lower marker of three at a big price of 7/2 but he has had at least two tackles in four of his Champions League contests so far this season - that includes the 2-1 win at the Bernabeu.
Again in goes down to the point of Real trying to use that wide space and force City's wingers further back when in possession. That could force Mahrez into making tackles to stop the attack from progressing any further as he has done throughout his time at the club.
It's a difficult game to call as both finished the season in strong fashion. City's two away goals are vital though and a 1-0 win for Real won't be enough to send them through.
There's too many 'if' questions in regards to backing City on the night at an odds-on price. Instead, sitting on the fence and taking the draw at 16/5 across the board is the most appealing outright option.
Score prediction: Manchester City 1-1 Real Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bet: Joao Cancelo to have 4+ tackles at 5/2
Best bet: Riyad Mahrez to have 3+ tackles at 7/2
Opta facts
- This is the third Champions League meeting between Manchester City and Real Madrid at the Etihad; the previous two ended as draws (1-1 in 2012-13 group stage, 0-0 in 2015-16 semi-final first leg).
- Real Madrid have won five of their 11 away Champions League games in England (W5 D3 L3), beating four different teams (Man Utd, Leeds United, Liverpool and Spurs). The only two teams to win away at five different English teams in the Champions League are Bayern Munich (5) and Barcelona (7).
- In major UEFA European competition, Manchester City have progressed from all seven of their previous knockout ties when winning the first leg away from home.
- Real Madrid are looking to overturn a first leg deficit in a Champions League knockout tie for the first time since the 2015-16 quarter-final against Wolfsburg, progressing from that tie (0-2 first leg, 3-0 second leg). They have never overturned a deficit after losing the first leg at home in four previous instances.
- Man City manager Pep Guardiola has won 28 Champions League knockout matches, more than any other manager in the competition’s history. Guardiola is looking to become the third manager to eliminate Real Madrid in the knockout stage more than once, along with Marcello Lippi (1995-96, 2002-03) and Ottmar Hitzfeld (2000-01, 2006-07).
- Zinedine Zidane could be eliminated from a Champions League knockout tie for the first time, having been victorious in the previous 12. Zidane has won just two of his six Champions League games against English teams (33%).
- Pep Guardiola’s five home Champions League knockout matches as Manchester City manager (W3 L2) have produced 28 goals (18 scored, 10 conceded), with their three wins in this sequence coming via 5-3 (vs Monaco), 7-0 (vs FC Schalke 04) and 4-3 (vs Spurs) victories, producing 22 goals in total.
- Real Madrid have won their last four away Champions League knockout matches since losing 2-1 to Atlético Madrid in the second leg of the 2016-17 semi-final.
- Man City striker Gabriel Jesus has been directly involved in 14 goals in 16 Champions League starts (12 goals, 2 assists), finding the net in three of his four starts in the knockout stages.
- Should they be eliminated, it would be the first time since a run of six seasons between 2004-05 and 2009-10 that Real Madrid haven’t reached at least the Champions League quarter-finals in consecutive seasons, having gone out in the Last 16 in 2018-19.
- In the first leg, Real Madrid had just nine shots against Manchester City, only attempting fewer in one previous Champions League game under Zinedine Zidane (seven vs Bayern Munich in April 2018).
Odds correct at 1700 BST (06/08/20)
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