Mark O'Haire previews the Super Sunday clash between Manchester United and Liverpool, and he is siding with the home side to get the job done as one of this two best bets.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS GAME WAS CALLED OFF AFTER FAN PROTESTS
Football betting tips: Manchester United v Liverpool
2pts Manchester United Draw No Bet at Evens (William Hill)
1pt Either Team to Score a Penalty at 23/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Manchester United came from behind against Roma to take a major step towards sealing a place in next month's Europa League final on Thursday. The Red Devils rallied after the break to produce a domineering display, becoming the first side to score six goals in a major European semi-final since Real Madrid in the 1964 European Cup.
After four successive semi-final defeats in 15 months, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer talked of the importance of overcoming that final hurdle and delivering silverware, a feat achieved by both of his predecessors. But United are now in the box-seat to qualify for the showpiece event, and have been marked up as clear tournament favourites as we turn for home.
Domestically too, Solskjaer’s squad remain in an enviable position to secure a top-four finish. Indeed, United have room to spare should any slip-ups occur between now and the end of May, beginning with Sunday’s match-up with old rivals Liverpool at Old Trafford.
Despite the aforementioned wriggle-room, it’s surprising to see Man Utd outsiders at Old Trafford. The markets are suggesting the Red Devils might not have their full focus on the Premier League contest, although I’d argue the hosts would rarely, if ever, allow circumstances elsewhere to distract themselves from a home contest with the Reds.
United have an impressive home record against Liverpool
For starters, United have suffered a solitary reverse in their last 15 fixtures when welcoming Liverpool to Old Trafford (W10-D4-L1), and perhaps we’re underestimating the motivation in the home side’s camp to thwart the champions’ prospects of sealing a top-four finish, too. The Red Devils also have a strong squad, capable of seamlessly resting and rotating.
Solskjaer’s side have been beaten just once in the Premier League since November and in terms of non-penalty Expected Goal (npxG) performance, have matched Liverpool over the past four, eight, 12 and 16 game splits. The Red Devils have also displayed a penchant for keeping contests with Big Six opponents tight, tentative and relatively uninspiring.
What is Expected Goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
- CLICK HERE for Manchester United's Infogol xG stats and profile
But what’s most telling when digging into the data, is how open Liverpool have been since the start of January. Alarmingly, the Merseysiders have conceded eight Big Chances in their last four outings – only Crystal Palace (9) have given away more – and Jurgen Klopp’s outfit also rank inside the bottom-three for the same metric over a 16-game sequence.
Clearly the defensive deficiencies emanating from key injuries through the spine of the Liverpool side remain a key concern for the guests and there’s enough red flags there to oppose the visitors on Sunday, even if Klopp’s troops boast the best points return in all-Big Six contests this term. MAN UTD (DRAW NO BET) at evens with William Hill is the preferred play.
Elsewhere, Michael Oliver has been handed the whistle for Sunday’s showdown and his appointment brings the propensity for penalties. The experienced 36-year-old has pointed to the spot on 17 occasions in 25 league fixtures this season, as well as 17 times during 44 all-Big Six Premier League contests during his career, both well above average numbers.
With that in mind, as well as the fact Man Utd and Liverpool have combined to convert 14 of their collective 15 awarded penalties this term, there’s appeal in EITHER TEAM TO SCORE A PENALTY at 23/10 with Betfair – odds that imply a 30% chance of landing.
However, for those of you with a BetVictor account, we can increase the odds on offer by delving into each side’s favoured spot-kick taker.
Dipping into BetVictor’s Bet Builder we’re given the option to select the Method of Goal – dutching Bruno Fernandes to score a penalty at 7/1 and Mo Salah to do likewise at 13/2, gives us a quote bigger than 14/5 should either player convert, a 17% increase on the aforementioned 23/10, and odds that imply only a 26% chance of copping.
To take advantage of the favourable boost, place 52% of your one point stake on Salah to score a penalty at 13/2 and 48% of the same one point stake on Fernandes to score from the spot at 7/1.
Whoever you bet with may price up this market upon request, but BetVictor looks to be offering the best value at the moment.
Man Utd v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Manchester United Draw No Bet at Evens (William Hill)
- 1pt A Penalty to be Scored at 23/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 1000 BST (30/04/21)
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