A huge game in the Race for Europe takes place at the King Power, with both Leicester and Tottenham needing wins. Mark O'Haire is on hand to preview the clash.
Football betting tips: Leicester v Tottenham
1pt Over 3.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
Brendan Rodgers has suggested Leicester will go “all in” against Tottenham on the final day of the season, putting together one huge final day push in the race for a top-four finish.
The Foxes welcome Spurs to the King Power Stadium knowing victory won’t guarantee Champions League qualification, yet City are eager to complete their part of the bargain.
As well as taking top honours themselves, Leicester require Crystal Palace to deny Liverpool maximum points, or Aston Villa to do likewise when welcoming Champions League finalists Chelsea.
Meanwhile, if Liverpool do win at Anfield, the Foxes will need to score at least five more goals than the Reds en-route to their own victory against Spurs.
The permutations involved mean Leicester are now a 13/5 shot to squeeze into the top-four, odds that imply just a 28% chance.
That’s despite the Foxes occupying a place amongst the Premier League’s elite in 68 of their previous 71 league games and missing out on the same prize on the final day of last term’s campaign too.
Whatever happens, 2020/21 will be remembered as Leicester’s second-most successful season in history thanks to last weekend’s FA Cup triumph.
That success will soften the blow should the Foxes fall short on Sunday, although Rodgers is keen for his group to sign-off in style having had time to recover from a draining duo of games with Chelsea.
Visitors Tottenham saw their own hopes of securing European football dented in midweek as Aston Villa came from behind to claim a deserved victory in front of 10,000 fans at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
With speculation increasing about Harry Kane's future, Spurs failed to fire with interim boss Ryan Mason disappointed by his team’s display.
The capital club had made a positive start to proceedings but were distinctly second-best after opening the scoring early on.
It means Tottenham are now fighting for sixth place and Europa League football this weekend as they come into Sunday’s showdown currently occupying a position for the Europa Conference League play-off round.
Expect goals at the KP
So, with plenty to play for on both sides of the divide, I’m anticipating an enjoyable, open and entertaining encounter from the KP.
Key Leicester defender Jonny Evans looks unlikely to play a part in the curtain-closer, immediately weakening the Foxes’ rearguard, whilst James Maddison’s injury struggles suggest he could also miss out for the hosts.
Nevertheless, Rodgers’ outfit have packed plenty of punch in recent matches, with only Liverpool (2.05 non-pen xGF per game) and Chelsea (1.85) creating more than Leicester (1.75) since early March. Tottenham (1.59) aren't far behind on that stat either.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Both Leicester and Tottenham have managed to get on the scoresheet in all bar six of their previous 37 matches this term – further evidence that point us towards a goal-heavy game.
Meanwhile, a remarkable 12 of Spurs’ most recent 15 fixtures have featured a minimum of three goals with seven of those outings also breaking the Over 3.5 Goals barrier.
With that in mind, plus the high-stakes involved, I’m happy to support OVER 3.5 GOALS AND BTTS at 7/4 quotes with SkyBet.
The odds on offer imply a 36% chance of our proposed wager paying-out yet five of Leicester’s 11 tussles against Big Six opposition have clicked in this market with seven breaching the standard Over 2.5 Goals line.
Despite enduring Jose Mourinho’s defensive-first football for the majority of the campaign, seven of Spurs’ 11 match-ups against top-six teams featured three or more goals, whilst the case for goals galore is further enhanced by historic Premier League trends that point towards an increase of up to 0.40 goals per-game on average on the final day of the season.
Leicester v Tottenham score prediction and best bets
- 1pt Over 3.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Leicester 3-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct 08:40 BST (20/05/21)
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