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Football tips: Super Sunday
1pt Nicolas Jackson to score anytime at 5/2 (Unibet)
Suggested BuildABet @ 42/1
Enzo Fernandez 1+ fouls
Ben Chilwell to be carded
Trent Alexander-Arnold 1+ fouls
Trent Alexander-Arnold 2+ total shots
Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Home 19/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 13/10
It truly is a Super Sunday to kick off the Premier League season, with Chelsea hosting Liverpool in a game we desperately hope will not follow the goalless pattern that's emerged in recent years.
The last four meetings between the pair have been 0-0 after 90 minutes but the depth of quality possessed by the visitors in attack means they should have enough to find a way through here.
God I hope so because I've taken them at 80/1 to score in every league game this season...
The 'security' for me comes in siding with the established away side compared with the uncertainty of the new-look hosts, who could take a while to get to grips with Mauricio Pochettino's style after yet another window of high player turnover.
But at 13/10, it's not one I'll be putting in my staking plan, with a potential goalscorer taking my fancy instead,
Jackson can thrive
The opening weekend of the season always delivers some intriguing options as you gamble on an element of the unknown.
A best price of 5/2 is available for NICOLAS JACKSON TO SCORE ANYTIME which provides serious appeal having watched a fair bit of him in pre-season.
Chelsea's new man should lead the line and demonstrated in non-competitive games across the past few weeks that he can strike in this Blues system.
Jackson finished the Premier League's Summer Series with two goals and two assists despite coming on in the 63rd minute against Brighton and only playing a half in each of the games against Fulham and Newcastle.
He scored 12 goals in 26 La Liga appearances for Villarreal last season and should thrive for a team who will want to play on the front foot.
Fernandez among the fouls
The new approach from officials will be one to monitor in the opening exchanges of the season but it does give bets surrounding fouls and cards more appeal.
You could take your pick from a number of players in this game, but ENZO FERNANDEZ is an interesting selection for 1+ FOULS.
The midfielder averaged 0.6 fouls per league game following his January switch to Stamford Bridge last season with that figure jumping up to 0.8 for home contests.
The midfield battle will be an interesting one to observe given the new faces in there for Liverpool and, of course, that change of system we saw in the latter stages of last campaign.
Chilwell's card potential
Again, consider the new refereeing approach, this looks one worth considering - even potentially as a single given the prices available. Adding it to any multiple brings significant value.
I went to Leeds v Shrewsbury in midweek and an away player got booked for a fairly nothing foul early on - this is the way games will be early in the season.
BEN CHILWELL has the fun task of dealing with Mohamed Salah. That's been tricky for most left-backs throughout the years and see him pick up a CARD.
Chilwell averaged 0.6 fouls per league game last season but that could rise this term given 22/23 was something of a write-off for Chelsea.
Pochettino is likely to push his full-backs forward and Chilwell may well be caught out as a result. Combined with the battle he'll have down the Chelsea left throughout the game, the England international looks worth a play in the cards market.
Take Trent...
"Gareth, are all these going to be about the new refereeing approach?"
If we're brutally honest, you don't particularly care where an outfield player is on the pitch if you're only backing them to commit a foul in the game.
I do like the potential in TRENT ALEXANDER-ARNOLD 1+ FOULS though with his new role when Liverpool are in possession.
The final 10 games of last season saw the full-back across the pitch far more, rather than, as you'd expect, sticking to that right side.
Expect to see him popping up here, there and everywhere, only further enhancing his potential for a foul.
I'm aware I'm going full Numberwang with all these stats but I'm only trying to help!
In the opening few weeks, there will be value in backing ALEXANDER-ARNOLD 2+ TOTAL SHOTS given what we saw at the back end of last season.
His much talked about switch to midfield saw a big jump up in attacking numbers for both the player and his team in those final 10 games.
From GW1 to GW28, Liverpool averaged 14.4 shots per game, 1.71 goals scored and 1.60 xG.
Across the final 10 fixtures, it was 15.4 shots, 2.70 goals and 2.19 xG.
For Alexander-Arnold, his shots per game count jumped up from 0.93 to 1.50. He'll share some set-piece duties with Dominik Szoboszlai, but the open play system makes up for that.
Actually that wasn't so bad and there was a picture to enjoy too, so, fine.
Team news
New Chelsea signing Christopher Nkunku is unlikely to play again this year following a knee injury in pre-season, joining Wesley Fofana as a long-term absentee.
Benoit Badiashile will also miss out, while Noni Madueke continues to recover from a hamstring issue. Carney Chukwuemeka could come in after impressing in pre-season while new signing Axel Disasi is in line for a debut at centre-back.
Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai are set to make their Liverpool debuts in midfield, with Curtis Jones a candidate to make up the trio.
The Reds have a number of options in the attacking positions. Mohamed Salah is the only name you can back with confidence to start, but Cody Gakpo and Luis Diaz are contenders for the other two spots.
Pre-match chatter has been dominated by the potential arrival of Brighton midfielder Moises Caicedo for a staggering £111m. He, of course, won't feature here...for either team.
Predicted line-ups
Chelsea: Kepa; James, Disasi, Colwill, Chilwell; Fernandez, Gallagher; Sterling, Chukwuemeka, Mudryk; Jackson
Liverpool: Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Konate, van Dijk, Robertson; Mac Allister, Szoboszlai, Jones; Salah, Gakpo, Diaz
Match facts
- Each of the last six meetings between Chelsea and Liverpool in all competitions have been drawn - it's Liverpool's longest run of consecutive draws against an opponent.
- Each of the last four meetings between Chelsea and Liverpool in all competitions has finished 0-0 - no fixture in competitive English football history has finished goalless five times in a row before.
- Apart from the three teams to be relegated at the end of 2022-23, Chelsea have picked up fewer wins (4) and fewer points (20) in 2023 than any other Premier League side.
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 11 Premier League games (W7 D4) the longest current run without a defeat for any side in the competition. This run started with a 0-0 draw at Chelsea, which is the only time they've failed to score in these 11 matches.
- This will be Mauricio Pochettino's first Premier League game in charge of Chelsea. The Argentine has won five of his previous seven MD1 games in the competition (D1 L1), with the only defeat coming at Manchester United in 2015-16.
- Mohamed Salah has scored in Liverpool's opening Premier League game in all six of his seasons with the Reds. His eight MD1 goals in total is a joint record in the competition.
Odds correct at 1900 BST (11/08/23)
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