After a healthy profit from 6/5 and 7/4 winners last weekend, Mark O'Haire is back again with his best bets for Super Sunday as Arsenal host Tottenham.
Football betting tips: Arsenal v Tottenham
1pt on the Draw (5/2 Unibet)
1pt on Either team to score a penalty (12/5 Betfair)
1pt on Alexandr Lacazette to be carded (11/2 Bet365)
Mikel Arteta said his Arsenal side need to stop being their own worst enemy after defensive lapses undermined their last-16 first-leg victory over Olympiakos in the Europa League on Thursday night.
The Gunners produced a largely commanding display during their 3-1 success in Piraeus, although lax and laboured play punctuated the performance.
Indeed, Olympiakos’ only goal on the night came courtesy of an Arsenal mistake, adding to the litany of recent errors, with the Gunners guilty of conceding soft goals against Burnley and Benfica in fixtures over the past month.
Arteta will hope a North London derby encounter at the Emirates will refocus minds in the home camp this weekend.
Arteta’s outfit were renowned for their resilience earlier in the campaign, but more recently we’ve begun to see the Gunners as an attacking force. The hosts have generated the third-highest Expected Goals (xG) output in the Premier League over the past 12 matches despite facing the likes of Man City, Man Utd, Leicester, Aston Villa and Brighton in that sample.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
The introduction of Martin Ødegaard, the continued development of Buakyo Saka and the return to form of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has given Arteta’s troops a more fluent forward threat, suggesting Arsenal should be capable of putting Spurs under plenty of pressure on Super Sunday.
However, it remains to be seen whether those aforementioned defensive lapses in the Gunners backline can be curbed, particularly against a rejuvenated Tottenham attack.
- Click here to read Richard Jolly's article looking at Tottenham's attacking numbers
Jose Mourinho’s released the shackles in recent weeks, bringing Gareth Bale into a more prominent role in his starting XI, alongside Harry Kane and Son Heung-min to great success.
Yet neither team hold particular appeal at the prices. The visitors arguably have the slight edge in terms of personnel, plus preparation, but two triumphs in 35 away Premier League trips to Arsenal is off-putting enough in a fixture where head-to-head trends tend to have more bearing than most. Instead, THE DRAW seems the most likely outcome.
Michael Oliver has been given the whistle for Sunday’s showdown and his appointment brings the propensity for penalties. The experienced 36-year-old has pointed to the spot on 14 occasions in 21 league fixtures this season, as well as 16 times during 43 all-Big Six Premier League contests during his career, both well above average numbers.
With that in mind, as well as the fact Arsenal and Spurs have combined to convert all eight of their awarded penalties this term, I’ll happily take the 12/5 (Betfair) on A PENALTY BEING SCORED – odds that imply only a 29% chance of landing.
The North London derby is renowned as a feisty fixture – both sides have collected a minimum of three cards each in four of the most recent five meetings – and at 11/2, ALEXANDRE LACAZETTE TO BE BOOKED could offer a bit of value.
The French forward has been booked in three of his four starts for the Gunners in this match-up.
What’s more, the Frenchman is averaging a card every 331 minutes in the Premier League dating back to the beginning of 2019/20 – effectively a card every 3.68 games - earning 10 yellows in that sample. Whereas the 11/2 offering implies just a 15% chance of a repeat.
Arsenal v Tottenham score prediction and best bets
- 1pt on the Draw (5/2 Unibet)
- 1pt on Either team to score a penalty (12/5 Betfair)
- 1pt on Alexandre Lacazette to be carded (11/2 Bet365)
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1130 GMT on 12/03/21
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