Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: 'We've got our Tottenham back'
Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) has so far banked two correct scores and six correct results in the new Super 6 season.
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Round four predictions
- Manchester City 4-0 Fulham
- Chelsea 2-0 Nottingham Forest
- Burnley 1-3 Tottenham
- Brighton 2-2 Newcastle
- Crystal Palace 2-1 Wolves
- Arsenal 3-1 Manchester United
There were plenty of surprises last weekend that unsurprisingly scuppered anyone's chances of winning the Super 6 jackpot of £1m.
Nottingham Forest hitting two at Old Trafford, Fulham getting a draw at the Emirates and Brighton losing 3-1 at home to West Ham all contributed to not a single player making it to Sunday's games with a chance of winning the biggest prize.
Onto round four then, which again looks especially tricky, but I am confident in three results, which is where we will start.
'We've got our Tottenham back'
Anyone who has watched the Premier League over the last 10 years will know that TOTTENHAM were at their best - on the eye and on results - when playing in an attack-minded manner under Mauricio Pochettino. The last four years have been dire.
Results have been bad and watching them had become a laborious task under Jose Mourinho, Nuno Espirito Santo and Antonio Conte. Ange Postecoglou has changed all of that already, despite being in the job for just under three months.
Spurs now play a swashbuckling style of football, where their aim is to score as many as they can in every game, and it's made them a great watch. Results are important too, and they have so far achieved them - seven points from three games.
The managerial switch has paid off and their style should be well-suited to going up against BURNLEY at Turf Moor on Saturday, a side who play in their own front-foot way, but one that has seen them get exposed so far this term.
Vincent Kompany's men have played only twice in the Premier League this season, but have shipped three goals and 2.40+ xGA on both occasions.
Tottenham should provide a similar level of attacking threat, and have the same amount of joy, though the Clarets can get on the scoresheet at least.
Score prediction: Burnley 1-3 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
A City stroll
MANCHESTER CITY were given a scare last weekend against Sheffield United, needing to score late on to grab a 2-1 win, but don't let the scoreline fool you - the game wasn't close.
Pep's side won the xG battle 3.85 - 0.76 at Bramall Lane, so should have been out of sight before the Blades' equaliser, and I don't see them giving Fulham a chance to hang on to their coattails on Saturday.
So far this season City have allowed a total of just 1.33 xGA, looking incredibly tight at the back, and it's the exact opposite for FULHAM, whose draw at Arsenal is another result to file in the 'don't read too much into it' column.
The Cottagers shipped 3.23 xGA in that game, generating just 0.85 xGF, so were hugely fortunate to get a point, and their defensive numbers have been appalling so far this term, allowing 9.29 xGA across their three league games so far - not ideal ahead of a trip to the Etihad.
Score prediction: Manchester City 4-0 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Chelsea in control
CHELSEA have impressed me in all three league games under Mauricio Pochettino so far, despite winning just once. They went toe-to-toe with Liverpool and were the better team on the day, dominated territory and created chances against West Ham, and made light work of a poor Luton side.
They will prove to be a lot more solid defensively now Moises Caicedo is in the team, and I expect their level of control in games to go up even more, leading to clean sheets.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST have scored in every league game so far this season, but have been fortunate to bag the five they have, those goals coming from chances equating to 3.30 xGF.
They have had a tough away schedule in fairness to them, facing Arsenal and Manchester United on the road ahead of this trip, but failing to generate 1.0 xG in either is a worry.
As is their overall away form since returning to the top flight, where they have lost 15 of 21 and generated just 0.83 xGF per game. A home win with an accompanying shut out is the way I'm leaning.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-0 N Forest (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Gunners to, finally, fire
The big game of the weekend is the one that rounds it off on Super Sunday - ARSENAL vs MANCHESTER UNITED.
Neither team are yet to fully convince this season, with performances underwhelming and a shock result apiece, but it is Arsenal who have shown more, and who I have more confidence in when it comes to figuring it out.
They have a few key players back fit for this one, and they have shown a consistency at both ends of the pitch thus far, averaging 2.09 xGF and 0.96 xGA per game.
Compare that to United's injury list which features Raphael Varane and Luke Shaw - half of their first choice starting defence - and their underlying process (2.48 xGF and 1.74 xGA per game) and it's hard to get on board with Erik ten Hag's side in this match.
The Red Devils are creating chances, so should score on Sunday, but they can't keep the chances out, with that defensive process alarming.
If things continue in the same manner, Arsenal will have a field day at the Emirates. After all, the Gunners have won 15 of their 21 home games since the start of last season, while United are poor travellers, losing more (9) on the road than they have won (8) in that same time period.
Score prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Man Utd (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Anything could happen at the Amex
BRIGHTON's matches are a literal lottery, especially against teams who have requisite quality to cause the Seagulls problems, with Roberto De Zerbi's men far from polished defensively.
They are a stellar attacking unit though, racking up 8.90 xGF in three games this season, but that backline is vulnerable. It's partly the backline, but partly the style of football which does leave them exposed. So far this season they have shipped 7.53 xGA, with West Ham hitting them for three goals and 2.95 xGA in last weekends match at the Amex.
NEWCASTLE have been tame since their rip-roaring win over Aston Villa to start the season, but have played Manchester City and Liverpool, so can be somewhat forgiven, but this really is a litmus test for the Magpies.
Against a potential direct rival for European football, how will they cope? And I guess more importantly - in my mind anyway - how will they approach this game?
Last season it would be a very much defence-first mindset, but I suspect we may see a little more adventure in their set-up at the weekend which should yield goals.
I struggled to pin down a result never mind a correct score for this one, so fence-sitting it is.
Score prediction: Brighton 2-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Eagles to see off Wolves
Another struggle of a pick for me at Selhurst Park, where CRYSTAL PALACE welcome WOLVES.
Palace fared very well against relegation threatened teams at the back end of last season, but that was with Michael Olise and Wilfried Zaha alongside Eberechi Eze in the creative engine, and the first two won't be playing this weekend.
Wolves got a good win last weekend against Everton, but again shipped plenty of chances, something that has spiked since Gary O'Neil's appointment brought about a change in approach. They have allowed an average of 2.34 xGA per game.
Roy Hodgson should loosen the reigns a little for this game, which has me leaning towards a home win.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
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