Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Upsets on Sunday

By Jake Osgathorpe

Football

Sun January 21, 2024 · 10M ago

For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.

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Round 31 predictions

Norwich 1-2 West Brom
Bristol City 1-1 Watford
Brentford 2-2 N Forest
Leeds 2-0 Preston
Sheff Utd 1-0 West Ham
Bournemouth 2-1 Liverpool

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Blades to bounce

Sheffield United vs West Ham
Sky Sports: Sunday, 14:00 GMT

This looks a great opportunity for Sheffield United to get a win. They host a West Ham side who will be without Edson Alvarez (injured), Pablo Fornals (injured), Nayef Aguerd (AFCON), Said Benrahma (suspended), Michail Antonio (injured), Mohamed Kudus (AFCON), Lucas Paqueta (injured) and Jarrod Bowen (injured).

The Blades won't get a better chance to beat a top half team all season long. Performances of late haven't been bad for Chris Wilder's side, especially in his three home games, losing narrowly to Liverpool, beating Brentford and creating 3.6 xG in an undeserved defeat to Luton.

Score prediction: Sheffield United 1-0 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)

Cherries to take chance

Bournemouth vs Liverpool
Sky Sports: Sunday, 16:30 GMT

Bournemouth are a team on a roll. Since the start of November they have won six and lost two of their nine league games, with those losses coming at Manchester City and Tottenham. In that time they have averaged 2.04 xGF and 1.12 xGA per game, while accumulating the second most expected points (xP) per game.

Iraola's side are for real, and they will fancy their chances of beating a Liverpool side missing key players.

The Reds are missing Mohamed Salah (AFCON) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (injured), their two best and most creative players, while Konstantinos Tsimikas and Andy Robertson are still out meaning Joe Gomez will again play left back and youngster Conor Bradley will start at right back.

That leaves an already vulnerable travelling team even more vulnerable. This season they have conceded an average of 1.53 xGA per game away from home, while last season that was at 1.77, so Bournemouth can take advantage and cause a shock.

Score prediction: Bournemouth 2-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Back the Baggies

Norwich vs West Brom
Saturday, 15:00 GMT

Norwich remain an enigma this season, but they haven't beaten any side currently in the top eight of the Sky Bet Championship, meaning it's hard to see them get a result against an in form West Brom.

The Baggies rank as the seventh best team in the league this season according to expected goals, with Norwich down in 14th, and while Carlos Corberan's sides away form doesn't spring off the page (W4 D3 L6), they are the better team in this match-up.

Score prediction: Norwich 1-2 West Brom (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

All square at Ashton Gate

Bristol City vs Watford
Saturday, 15:00 GMT

Watford head to Bristol City on a great run of away form, winning four of an unbeaten last five on their travels. Results haven't reflected performances though, with Valerian Ismael's side allowing 1.53 xGA per away game and ranking 14th on away underlying process.

Bristol City had started to build a head of steam under Liam Manning but a winless trio of games has halted their progress. They have at least been steady at home, but it's hard to split these two.

Score prediction: Bristol City 1-1 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Goals, goals, goals

Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
Sky Sports: Saturday, 17:30 GMT

Brentford welcome their talisman and captain Ivan Toney back to the fold after a lengthy suspension, and he will likely prove the catalyst to see them surge in the second half of the season. While results have been poor of late, but chances and goals have continued to flow, with the Bees netting in seven of their last eight.

Nottingham Forest's appointment of Nuno Espirito Santo was supposed to be followed by a run of low-scoring, cagey games, but that hasn't been the case at all. Since his arrival, Forest's five matches have seen 20 goals, with the Tricky Trees creating and conceding plenty, and that shouldn't stop here.

Score prediction: Brentford 2-2 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Easy at Elland Road

Leeds vs Preston
Sky Sports: Sunday, 12:00 GMT

While they may not be top of the table, Leeds have now taken over at the top of the xG table. Their underlying process is the best in the second tier, averaging 1.80 xGF and 0.86 xGA per game, which stands them in good stead for a second half of season push.

They should have no problems on Sunday against a Preston side who rank 18th best this season on the xG data. Yes, North End beat the Whites in the reverse game, but a red card for goalkeeper Illan Meslier after 53 minutes was decisive. There should be no repeat.

Score prediction: Leeds 2-0 Preston (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

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