Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Too much for Toon

By Jake Osgathorpe

Football

Sat November 25, 2023 · 1y ago

For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.

The less said about the international break, the better. That also goes for last round's Super 6 effort...

On a brighter note, there is no break in club football for four months now, and we have another round of Super 6 to turn our attentions to.

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Round 19 predictions

Newcastle 0-2 Chelsea
Nottm Forest 1-1 Brighton
Burnley 1-2 West Ham
Brentford 1-1 Arsenal
Tottenham 2-3 Aston Villa
Everton 2-0 Man Utd

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Buoyant Blues

Newcastle vs Chelsea
Saturday, 15:00 GMT

Newcastle's absentee list is immense ahead of this game. Eddie Howe will be without more than half of his best XI for this clash, with Dan Burn, Sven Botman, Fabian Schar, Sandro Tonali, Callum Wilson and Alexander Isak all out or facing late fitness tests.

Miguel Almiron, Harvey Barnes, Jacob Murphy, Matt Targett and Elliot Anderson are sidelined too, while Lewis Hall - on loan from Chelsea - can't face his parent club.

So who the hell plays for this depleted Magpies side on Saturday? Chelsea are hardly an ideal opponent either, with Mauricio Pochettino's men finding some form before the break. Their record against better teams this season has been good, W1 D3 L1, with the Blues winning the xG battle in all five.

Chelsea can get another win on the board here as, after all, they have done their best work on the road this term (won three of five).

Score prediction: Newcastle 0-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)

Bees to sting Gunners

Brentford vs Arsenal
TNT Sports: Saturday, 17:30 GMT

Brentford are now rolling after a somewhat slow start results-wise, but their performances all season have been excellent. Thomas Frank's side have averaged 1.94 xGF and 1.41 xGA per game this term, while they have been simply sensational at home since the start of last season.

They have W12 D10 L3 in front of their own fans, while their record when welcoming the 'big six' reads W3 D3 L1 in that same timeframe. Arsenal have been poor in their last two away outings, being fortunate to scrape a point at Chelsea and then losing to Newcastle, so could slip up again here.

Score prediction: Brentford 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Spurs to stutter again

Tottenham vs Aston Villa
Sky Sports: Sunday, 14:00 GMT

Tottenham come into this game on a two-game losing skid, and without the spine of their team's success this season.

Centre-back partners Micky Van de Ven (injured) and Cristian Romero (suspended), midfield star Yves Bissouma (suspended) and key creator James Maddison (injured) are all absent, and it was no surprise to see them struggle against Wolves last time out.

They struggled to generate many good chances on that occasion, while looking vulnerable at the back (2.15 xGA), and against a better team in this game, we could see a third straight loss.

Villa's away form is patchy (W2 D1 L3), but their defeats have come at St James' Park, Anfield and versus a Nottingham Forest side happy to sit deep and counter attack. Spurs won't set up like that no matter who they play, and Unai Emery's canny tactics can pick apart the vulnerable hosts in a high-scoring game.

Score prediction: Tottenham 2-3 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)

Toffees sticky for United

Everton vs Manchester United
Sky Sports: Sunday, 16:30 GMT

The last thing an under-pressure Manchester United team and manager would have wanted straight after an international break was a trip to Goodison Park, never mind going there after Everton had been deducted 10 points. The siege mentality effect will be real on Sunday, and likely for the remainder of the season.

That aside, the Toffees have been a better team than United this season. They have collected more expected points (xP) and boast a better overall xG process. Throw in question marks around the availability of some key starters for United (Andre Onana and Rasmus Hojlund) and it's not hard at all to see a home win here.

Score prediction: Everton 2-0 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)

Brighton lacking bite

Nottingham Forest vs Brighton
Saturday, 15:00 GMT

Brighton have gone off the boil. Their attacking process has nosedived since the 2-2 draw with Liverpool, managing just 0.83, 1.43, 0.71 and 1.53 xGF in games against Manchester City, Fulham, Everton and Sheffield United respectively.

Injuries are partly to blame, and they do continue to be a huge problem for Roberto De Zerbi's side. Forest's home form has been excellent since promotion, winning 10 and losing just five of their 24 games at the City Ground. They are unbeaten at home this season, and their 'sit-deep and counter' style of football could prove problematic for the Seagulls.

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Another home 'L' for BurnLey

Burnley vs West Ham
Saturday, 15:00 GMT

Burnley have so far lost all six Premier League games in front of their own fans, scoring just four times and conceding 18. Granted they have played four of the 'big six' plus Aston Villa, but performances in all matches, especially against a middling Crystal Palace, were poor.

West Ham represent another tough opponent, and while the Hammers haven't travelled well this season, they should have too much for a Burnley side who have only picked up results against Nottingham Forest and Luton this season - two teams expected to be in the bottom six or seven.

Score prediction: Burnley 1-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

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