Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Spurs to struggle at slick City

By Jake Osgathorpe

Football

Sat December 02, 2023 · 11M ago

For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.

A four point midweek was a poor return from the Champions League slate, and it's fair to say the international break has killed my momentum...

Nonetheless, we have a decent looking schedule in the Premier League this weekend, so here's hoping for a bounce back.

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Round 21 predictions

Arsenal 3-1 Wolves
Brentford 3-0 Luton
N Forest 1-2 Everton
Newcastle 2-1 Man Utd
West Ham 2-2 C Palace
Man City 4-2 Tottenham

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City slickers

Manchester City vs Tottenham
Sky Sports: Sunday, 16:30 GMT

Manchester City created enough to deserve to beat Liverpool last weekend, and should get ample chances against Tottenham this weekend to rack up plenty of goals. An undermanned Spurs side won't change their approach for anyone, meaning a wide open encounter can be expected.

Ange Postecoglou's side have allowed 1.40 xGA per game on the road this season, despite playing six of the current bottom half, and City's attack could have a field day, though Spurs can get on the scoresheet just like 10 of City's last 16 opponents at the Etihad.

Score prediction: Manchester City 4-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 22/1)

Fortress St James'

Newcastle vs Manchester United
TNT Sports: Saturday, 20:00 GMT

Newcastle may be leggy with a stretched squad, but it's so difficult to oppose them at St James' Park. Trust me, having done it last week against Chelsea, I'm not making the same mistake again. The Magpies have now won six of seven at home this term, and since the start of last season have won 18 of 26 with an xG process to rival Manchester City and Liverpool.

Manchester United's recent performances have not warranted the results they've attained. Defensively they remain all over the shop, and rank as the eighth worst travelling team according to expected goals (1.33 xGF, 1.67 xGA per game).

Newcastle's extra days rest could prove key for Eddie Howe's side being at the swashbuckling best.

Score prediction: Newcastle 2-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Gunners to fire

Arsenal vs Wolves
Saturday, 15:00 GMT

Premier League leaders Arsenal have been excellent at home this season, ranking fourth best on expected goals process (1.92 xGF, 0.71 xGA per game) on their way to a W5 D2 record. Interestingly though, the Gunners have seen both teams net at the Emirates regularly.

Both teams have scored in 19 of their 26 home league games since the start of last season, so an attack-minded Wolves who are generating 1.40 xGF per game this season can at least get on the scoreboard.

Score prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Bees are buzzing

Brentford vs Luton
Saturday, 15:00 GMT

Brentford lost for only the fourth time in 26 home league games last weekend against Arsenal, highlighting their incredible record at the Gtech Community Stadium. Their underlying process over that stretch is fantastic too, averaging 1.82 xGF and 1.33 xGA per home game.

Luton, fresh from a late win against Crystal Palace, are the visitors on Saturday but they have been simply shocking away from home this season. Their record of W1 D1 L5 should be a lot worst, with the Hatters averaging 0.93 xGF and 2.51 xGA per game on their travels. The Bees should be too strong.

Score prediction: Brentford 3-0 Luton (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Forest felled

N Forest vs Everton
Sky Sports: Saturday, 17:30 GMT

There's not a great deal to like about Forest currently, a team who have won just one of their last nine and with a manger under pressure. No Taiwo Awoniyi is a problem for their attack, and their defence remains vulnerable.

Everton have done most of their damage away from Goodison Park this season, with Sean Dyche's men winning three of their six away. Their performance against Manchester United last week as another good one, with the Toffees now sitting ninth in the league on xG process this term. It's a big game for both, but Everton can edge it.

Score prediction: N Forest 1-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

Goals at London Stadium

West Ham vs C Palace
Sky Sports: Sunday, 14:00 GMT

West Ham only scraped past both Burnley and TSC Backa Topola in their last two games, struggling to create in the absence of key attacking personnel. However, their games following midweek European action have seen plenty of goals. The four games in question averaging 3.5 goals per game.

Defensively they look vulnerable this season, shipping 1.84 xGA per game, and Crystal Palace have created good chances in their last two (1.89, 1.84), coinciding with the return of Eberechi Eze.

Score prediction: West Ham 2-2 C Palace (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

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