Erling Haaland (left) and Kevin De Bruyne (right)

Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Scary City

By Jake Osgathorpe

Football

Sat February 17, 2024 · 9M ago

For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.

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Round 37 predictions

Burnley 0-2 Arsenal
Tottenham 3-1 Wolves
Fulham 2-2 Aston Villa
Man City 3-1 Chelsea
Sheff Utd 1-3 Brighton
Luton 1-2 Man Utd

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City juggernaut to keep rolling

Manchester City vs Chelsea
Sky Sports: Saturday, 17:30 GMT

Be afraid, be very afraid. Manchester City are showing signs of being back to their second-half-of-season-juggernaut-selves. Across all competitions Pep's side have won 11 straight, scoring 32 times and conceding just six. Kevin De Bruyne is back with a bang, two goals and seven assists in seven appearances since his injury, and Erling Haaland bagged a brace last weekend. It all looks rather ominous.

Chelsea remain an inconsistent mess, showing positive signs when winning five of six, only to follow up with shocking displays at Liverpool and at home to Wolves. Even on Monday against Crystal Palace they were disappointing.

Away from home they have lost four of five against top eight teams - the only win coming against nine-man Spurs - with the Blues conceding a combined 13 in those games. A home win looks incredibly likely, the question really is; how many will City score?

Score prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Attack clicking for United

Luton vs Manchester United
Sky Sports: Sunday, 16:30 GMT

Luton are back where they want to be - as underdogs. After a brief stint as favourites last weekend when hosting Sheffield United, they are firm outsiders here and that is where they do their best work. Still, they have lost seven of 12 at home, though they have played the big boys close.

Single goal defeats against all of the current top four, West Ham and Chelsea, as well as wins over Brighton and Newcastle highlight how dangerous the Hatters are, but I just get the feeling Manchester United are finding their feet and could make a run for fifth spot.

Performances have been better since defeat at West Ham before Christmas - barring at Nottingham Forest - and the goals have started to flow, United netting 15 in their last six, having scored just 18 in their opening 18. This could turn into a high-scoring contest, and United's new-found attacking form could see them fire to another win.

Score prediction: Luton 1-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Comfortable for Gunners

Burnley vs Arsenal
Saturday, 15:00 GMT

Arsenal were excellent last weekend in a 6-0 thrashing of West Ham, especially from set-pieces, which is fast becoming the Gunners' calling card. They have scored 14 goals from dead-ball situations - 26% of their league total.

That is one weapon they can put to good use at Turf Moor against a Burnley team who have shipped 12 from such situations this term. Overall though, Arsenal should prove too strong for a Clarets' team with nine defeats in 12 home league games, who's only home win came against Sheffield United and who've conceded 27 times in those outings.

Score prediction: Burnley 0-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Slick Spurs

Tottenham vs Wolves
Saturday, 15:00 GMT

Tottenham are a, in my opinion, the fourth best team in the league. At home they are excellent, winning nine of 12, with three defeats all having caveats. They are fully fit for the first time since they started the season winning eight of an unbeaten 10, so will take some stopping.

Wolves are a mid-table team, but I feel as though their open playing style plays into Tottenham's hands, and that Spurs will be able to out-create their attack-minded visitors. After all, Gary O'Neil's side have shipped 1.96 xGA per away game this season.

Score prediction: Tottenham 3-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Chaos at Cottage

Fulham vs Aston Villa
Saturday, 15:00 GMT

Fulham dominated Bournemouth last weekend, rightly winning, with the Cherries racking up chances and xG late on. They welcome back Alex Iwobi and Calvin Bassey after their AFCON exploits putting the hosts in a strong position here. They have won seven of 12 at home this term, averaging 1.78 xGF and 1.51 xGA per game.

Aston Villa need a win. They are close to being caught by Manchester United after last weekends defeat, with that loss their third in their last seven, with just two wins in that time (both against the current bottom two). Away process has always been an issue for me when considering Villa as a Champions League qualifying team, Unai Emery's side shipping 1.72 xGA per game, so they give up chances, meaning we should see a high-scoring game.

Score prediction: Fulham 2-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Seagulls and goals

Sheffield United vs Brighton
Sky Sports: Sunday, 14:00 GMT

Sheffield United picked the kitchen sink up weeks ago and are repeatedly throwing it. Chris Wilder's side have changed tactic under him, being far more front-footed in their approach, understanding that draws won't be enough to survive - they are going down swinging, admirably.

Their last six league games have featured 25 goals - an average of 4.2 per game - highlighting their open nature. That should suit Brighton, who recently went to Bramall Lane in the FA Cup and won 5-2, and who played well in defeat at Tottenham last week.

Score prediction: Sheffield United 1-3 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)