Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Reds to roll

By Jake Osgathorpe

Football

Tue January 30, 2024 · 10M ago

For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.

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Round 33 predictions

N Forest 1-2 Arsenal
Fulham 1-2 Everton
Aston Villa 2-1 Newcastle
Man City 3-0 Burnley
Tottenham 3-1 Brentford
Liverpool 3-1 Chelsea

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Reds are rolling

Liverpool vs Chelsea
TNT Sports 1: Wednesday, 20:15 GMT

League leaders Liverpool have been excellent of late, managing superbly with key players missing. Their attack is clicking in the absence of Mohamed Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold, while they continue to look solid defensively. This is a stiff test, but the Reds' should have more than enough at Anfield to get three points.

They have won eight of an unbeaten 10 in the league at home, averaging 2.90 xGF and 0.96 xGA per game. Chelsea meanwhile have stuttered on their travels this term, winning just four and losing five of 10, averaging 1.86 xGF and 1.75 xGA per game. That latter figure highlighting their defensive frailties which the Reds can expose.

Score prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Toffees to bounce back

Aston Villa vs Newcastle
TNT Sports 1: Tuesday, 20:15 GMT

Aston Villa's league form has stalled somewhat, winning just one of their last four despite playing three of the current bottom four. They remain as the best home team in the league, winning nine of an unbeaten 10 and averaging 2.27 xGF and 0.98 xGA per game, so it's hard to back against them here.

Especially as Newcastle have been tragic away from home this term. One win and seven defeats in 10 on the road is a shocking return, as is their underlying process (1.61 xGF, 2.36 xGA per game). Their poor run of form could continue here.

Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Spurs to sting the Bees

Tottenham vs Brentford
TNT Sports 2: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT

Tottenham are a tricky team to nail down at the minute. They are clearly a good and dangerous side, but the fact they are missing their starting midfield adds huge question marks. Defensively they remain vulnerable, and the visiting Bees could probably find some joy here.

Thomas Frank's side snapped a five league game losing streak last time out against Nottingham Forest, with Ivan Toney's return sparking them into life. Toney alone makes Brentford dangerous, and they should hit the net, but their defensive frailties and thin squad may be too much to overcome.

Score prediction: Tottenham 3-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Toffees to bounce back

Fulham vs Everton
Tuesday, 19:30 GMT

Fulham continue to be an enigma; you think you've figured them out and then they drop a poor performance. At home they have been steady-ish - barring a 2-0 loss to Burnley - that the only time they've failed to win at Craven Cottage in the last five league games, a run which includes a win over Arsenal.

After five wins in six league games, Everton are winless in four, though they have played three of the current top four in that run. They have done their best work away from home this season though, winning five of 10, but have a W4 D1 record away at teams in 12th and below, which bodes well ahead of a trip to the team in 13th place.

Score prediction: Fulham 1-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

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Gunners to edge to win

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
TNT Sports 2: Tuesday, 19:30 GMT

Arsenal got back to winning ways in emphatic fashion last time out, and that could be just the tonic to propel them to another win at the County Ground. The Gunners created plenty against Palace, but more importantly, they took their chances, something that has been an ongoing issue.

Nottingham Forest were well beaten by Brentford in their last league outing, and were held by Bristol City in the cup at the weekend. They continue to be hit by absentees, most of which are at AFCON, but under Nuno they have been defensively vulnerable, allowing 1.84 xGA per league game, and could again get exposed here.

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Easy at the Etihad

Manchester City vs Burnley
TNT Sports 3: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT

After a sticky period, Manchester City have now won four of their last five in the league, and beat Tottenham away in the FA Cup. They look to be hitting their stride, racking up 2.33 xGF per game in those contests.

That doesn't bode well for Burnley. The Clarets have won twice in 10 away, but their underlying process has been poor, generating just 0.78 xGF per game while conceding 2.06 xGA per game. This looks to be a question of how many.

Score prediction: Manchester City 3-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

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