Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Nuno had a dream

By Jake Osgathorpe

Football

Sat December 30, 2023 · 11M ago

For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.

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Round 28 predictions

Man City 3-0 Sheff Utd
Aston Villa 2-0 Burnley
Crystal Palace 2-1 Brentford
Wolves 2-2 Everton
N Forest 2-1 Man Utd
Fulham 0-2 Arsenal

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No stopping Nuno

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United
Sky Sports: Saturday, 17:30 GMT

Nuno Espirito Santo couldn't have asked for a better start to life as Nottingham Forest manager. Had his side kept 11-men on the field they would have likely got something against Bournemouth, and then they impressed greatly when beating Newcastle at St James' Park.

Their counter-attacking style will be well-suited to playing against this Manchester United team, who struggle to stop the transitions and who need space themselves to cause any issues going forward. They will likely get none of the latter at the City Ground.

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)

A case of how many?

Manchester City vs Sheffield United
Saturday, 15:00 GMT

The Club World Cup champions got back in the swing of things domestically with a deserved win over Everton at last time out, a win that means they enter GW20 five points off the top with a game in hand. Hardly a crisis...

A home game against Sheffield United should be a routine victory, with Chris Wilder's side reeling from a home defeat to Luton and winless on the road. The Blades have averaged just 0.56 xGF per game on their travels so will likely barely lay a glove on City.

Score prediction: Manchester City 3-0 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

A Villa bounce back

Aston Villa vs Burnley
Saturday, 15:00 GMT

Aston Villa have had a bumpy few games, drawing with Sheffield United and losing to Manchester United having been 2-0 up, but if there was one game to get them back on track, this would be it.

Burnley did win their last away game, but did so thanks to some extraordinary finishing (xG: FUL 1.42 - 0.37 BUR). That isn't sustainable, and given the Clarets ship 1.97 xGA per game on their travels, Villa should find plenty of joy.

Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Banged up Bees

Crystal Palace vs Brentford
Saturday, 15:00 GMT

Brentford are missing a host of players for this game and the foreseeable, which means they are a team to oppose for the time being. Defeat at home to Wolves was self-inflicted, but they have lost six of their last seven league games, losing the xG battle in five of those.

Crystal Palace looked dangerous against Chelsea in midweek, with Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze back fit and ready to fire Palace back up to their 12th spot. Winless in eight is a problem, though their last four have been impressive performances against Liverpool, Manchester City, Brighton and the Blues. They are trending positively.

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

A good draw

Wolves vs Everton
Saturday, 15:00 GMT

Wolves are flying at Molineux at the moment. Gary O'Neil's side have won four of an unbeaten last seven as hosts, against some good sides too having faced Manchester City, Aston Villa, Newcastle, Tottenham and Chelsea. They are creating chances, but also remain vulnerable, meaning goals will continue to flow.

Everton followed a four match winning streak with back-to-back defeats against Tottenham and Manchester City. The Toffees created chances in both losses though, with their process still that of a top eight team. Five wins in nine away games highlights how dangerous they are when travelling but it's hard to split these two.

Score prediction: Wolves 2-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Gunners fire back

Fulham vs Arsenal
Sky Sports: Sunday, 14:00 GMT

Fulham continue to be a very tough team to get a handle on. They seem to flit between a top half team for a few weeks to a bottom six team for a few weeks. Their last two performances have been shocking, especially last time out against Bournemouth (xG: BOU 1.82 - 0.28 FUL).

Arsenal will be reeling from a midweek loss to West Ham, though their performance wasn't hugely concerning, winning the shot count 30-6 and the non-penalty xG battle 2.77 to 0.62. They should get back to winning ways here, with Mikel Arteta's side impressing on the road this season, averaging 1.74 xGF and 0.96 xGA per game.

Score prediction: Fulham 0-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

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