Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: No stopping the Gunners

By Jake Osgathorpe

Football

Sat October 21, 2023 · 1y ago

For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.

Hello again reader! I'm back after a brief holiday, and with me I've brought the return of domestic football!

We've all missed it and we left on such a potentially defining moment with Arsenal beating Manchester City. Both sides feature in this week's Super 6, with round 12 predictions locked in...

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Round 12 predictions

Man City 4-2 Brighton
Newcastle 2-0 Crystal Palace
Brentford 2-1 Burnley
Chelsea 0-1 Arsenal
Sheff Utd 0-1 Man Utd
Aston Villa 3-1 West Ham

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Seagulls' defence too shaky

Manchester City vs Brighton
Saturday, 15:00 BST

Brighton's record against the 'big seven' is simply sensational. Across their last 21 Premier League matches against such teams they have won 11 times, losing just six, scoring 39 and conceding 29.

They have scored multiple times in 12 of those contests, and could do so again here given the way they have started the season in attack (2.29 xGF per game).

But with linchpin Rodri back for Manchester City after suspension, and the Seagulls way too open defensively in allowing 1.90 xGA per game, this looks a good bounce-back game for City after back-to-back league defeats.

Score prediction: Manchester City 4-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 22/1)

Gunners to fire past Chelsea

Chelsea vs Arsenal
Sky Sports: Saturday, 17:30 BST

On the face of it, Chelsea have turned a corner with back-to-back wins over Fulham and Burnley, and while their underlying numbers have been solid all season (1.97 xGF and 1.12 xGA per game), suggesting positive results will come, Mauricio Pochettino's side have had a kind schedule.

Saturday's contest is their toughest to date, with Arsenal performing to a similar level on underlying numbers as the Blues (1.97 xGF, 0.98 xGA per game) but over a tougher opening eight games, making their figures more impressive.

Add in Chelsea's home struggles since January, winning just three and losing seven of 16 in the league, and a stubborn Arsenal can edge this.

Score prediction: Chelsea 0-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

A test for Ten Hag

Sheffield United vs Manchester United
Sky Sports: Saturday, 20:00 BST

Sheffield United have collected the fewest number of expected points (xP) through eight games than any Premier League team since data collection began (2014). In short, they are the worst team we have seen at this stage of a season according to the data.

That being said, it doesn't mean Manchester United will have it easy on Saturday, with the Red Devils also struggling - though obviously not to the same extent. Injuries have hurt Erik ten Hag's side, but their overall process (1.60 xGF, 1.53 xGA per game) just isn't where it needs to be in order to win these types of games comfortably.

Score prediction: Sheffield Utd 0-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Can we play Emery game at home?

Aston Villa vs West Ham
Sky Sports: Sunday, 16:30 BST

Aston Villa have won 10, yes TEN, straight home league games as they welcome West Ham on Sunday, with those victories coming by an aggregate of 27-4. Tottenham, Crystal Palace and Brighton (twice) are the only sides to have breached them during that run.

West Ham did cause a huge upset at Brighton not long ago, but as Villa showed when facing the Seagulls, they are much more streetwise and pick and choose their moments to take risks. The Hammers have faced some tough trips so far but, even so, to ship 2.28 xGA per game is a cause for concern.

Score prediction: Aston Villa 3-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Too(n) good on Tyneside

Newcastle vs Crystal Palace
Saturday, 15:00 BST

Newcastle have lost just three games this season - to Manchester City, Liverpool and Brighton. Two of those came on the road, with defeat to Liverpool at St James' Park an odd one given the control the Magpies had in that game. That loss was also just the third at home since the start of last season, Liverpool inflicting two and Arsenal the third.

Eddie Howe's Newcastle are sensational at home

That highlights the circles Eddie Howe's side are now mixing with, and we have to accept that Newcastle are one of the best home teams in the land, averaging 2.48 xGF and 0.92 xGA per game over their last 23. Crystal Palace are a mid-table team, and the hosts should sweep them aside.

Score prediction: Newcastle 2-0 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Buzzing to be back

Brentford vs Burnley
Saturday, 15:00 BST

Brentford are one of the Premier League's early-season underperformers, with the Bees sitting 15th in the actual table but ninth in the expected table. That tells us that performances have been better than results would suggest, and so it wouldn't be a surprise if results take a turn for the better soon.

A home game against Burnley looks a great opportunity to start that, with the Clarets picking up their only points so far against Nottingham Forest and Luton, teams I rate below Brentford. Defensively they have been all over the place - granted they have faced a tough schedule - and could again be exposed here.

Score prediction: Brentford 2-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

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