Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: No stopping Champ high-fliers

By Jake Osgathorpe

Football

Tue February 13, 2024 · 9M ago

For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.

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Round 36 predictions

Copenhagen 0-1 Man City
RB Leipzig 1-1 Real Madrid
Leicester 3-1 Sheff Wed
Swansea 1-4 Leeds
Bristol City 0-2 Southampton
West Brom 2-0 Cardiff

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Not a City cruise

Copenhagen vs Manchester City
TNT Sports: Tuesday, 20:00 GMT

While this on paper looks like a walkover tie, and it probably will be, this away leg could be a lot closer than many people think. Copenhagen were impressive in the knockouts, beating Manchester United and holding Bayern Munich, so are capable of limiting a City juggernaut in Denmark.

Pep Guardiola will likely ring the changes here ahead of a home game against Chelsea at the weekend which could mean the tie remains alive heading into the second leg, though the reigning champs should still be strong enough to edge to a win.

Score prediction: Copenhagen 0-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Level in Leipzig

RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid
TNT Sports: Tuesday, 20:00 GMT

Real Madrid will be fancied by many to go deep again in the Champions League, but they have a tricky tie on their hands. This first leg in particular could prove problematic as they are set to be without Eder Militao, David Alaba and, more importantly, Jude Bellingham, with Antonio Rudiger questionable.

That means it could be a Aurélien Tchouaméni-Dani Carvajal centre-back pairing, which will present RB Leipzig with some chances here. The Germans boast a strong xG process in the Bundesliga when playing host (2.45 xGF, 1.19 xGA per game), and while this is a step up, they can avoid defeat.

Score prediction: RB Leipzig 1-1 Real Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Routine for Foxes

Leicester vs Sheffield Wednesday
Sky Sports: Tuesday, 19:45 GMT

Leicester just keep marching on, the Foxes 11 points clear of second place with just 15 games remaining. Promotion, and the title, seems inevitable. They have won six of their last seven home games, and should make that seven in eight here.

It is worth noting that they have conceded in four of their last five at the King Power, so a Sheffield Wednesday side buoyed by a much-needed win over Birmingham last Friday could hit the net in defeat.

Score prediction: Leicester 3-1 Sheffield Wednesday (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Leeds too good

Swansea vs Leeds
Sky Sports Arena: Tuesday, 19:45 GMT

Swansea snapped a four match losing run with a win at Hull, a game in which they limited their hosts impressively (xG: HUL 0.67 - 0.70 SWA). A similar display seems unlikely here against a rampant Leeds team who have won their last six in the league.

The Whites have enviable firepower for this level, and should prove too strong in this game, that could turn into a high-scoring contest.

Score prediction: Swansea 1-4 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 20/1)

Saints not stopping

Bristol City vs Southampton
Sky Sports Main Event: Tuesday, 20:00 GMT

Bristol City ended a six match winless league run with a win over Middlesbrough, but they now face the daunting task of taking on Southampton.

Southampton are unbeaten in 25 games across all competitions, winning 18 of those, and they have been scoring hat-fulls of late, hitting 27 in their last nine league games - no surprise given the quality in their squad.

Score prediction: Bristol City 0-2 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Baggies bag another W

West Brom vs Cardiff
Sky Sports: Tuesday, 20:00 GMT

West Brom are an excellent home team, winning all of last four in the league. Across their last 11 at the Hawthorns they have a W8,D2, L1 record, with the sole defeat at the hands of Leicester.

Their opponents Cardiff head to West Brom having lost eight of last 13 league games, winning just three in that time, with two of those coming against teams currently in the bottom three.

Score prediction: West Brom 2-0 Cardiff (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)