Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Liverpool to roar out of the blocks at Chelsea
Super 6 is back for another season and so is our expert Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) with a brand new column packed with xG-led insight and the chance to win cash prizes by pitting your wits directly against him.
Once a month the weekly top scorer in an especially created SPORTING LIFE LEAGUE will win £250, with £125 for the runner-up, £75 for third, £30 for fourth and £20 for fifth.
If Jake tops the charts, the money rolls over to the following month.
Our first prize giveaway will take place across the weekend of September 16 following the opening international break of the season, and all you need to do is visit that week's column to find the NEW LEAGUE CODE and join for your chance to win the money.
For now, let's get cracking with round one.
Round one predictions
- Brighton 4-1 Luton
- Everton 1-0 Fulham
- Bournemouth 1-0 West Ham
- Newcastle 2-1 Aston Villa
- Brentford 2-2 Tottenham
- Chelsea 1-3 Liverpool
Opening weekends are always tricky to assess, with plenty of change afoot and no new-season data or competitive fixtures to glean insight from.
Last season's data can be used to good effect most of the time, especially with teams who have a fair bit of continuity.
That brings us nicely to the marquee match-up of the weekend which comes at Stamford Bridge.
Poch needs time
CHELSEA once again have a new manager, and more new players. They take on LIVERPOOL, who have the same manager and mostly the same players.
Anyone who has read my outright Premier League preview will know I am sweet on the Reds this season, and think they can challenge for top honours.
Their attack was excellent last term, second best (2.12 xGF per game) behind champions Manchester City (2.22) according to the data.
The front-line personnel remains wholly intact and will likely improve as Darwin Nunez and Cody Gakpo become fully accustomed to Premier League life.
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Defensive issues were plainly obvious but I place 80% of the blame on a sluggish un-Klopp-like midfield, of which nearly all have moved on.
While that provides a lack of continuity, I would suggest Liverpool have upgraded in this area by waving goodbye to Jordan Henderson, Fabinho and James Milner (and possibly Thiago), while welcoming Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai.
Moises Caicedo could be heading to Anfield too, right from under Chelsea's noses.
A bounce-back campaign can be expected for Klopp's men and while I think Chelsea will be a dangerous opponent as the season progresses, this could be a great time for Liverpool to play them.
Mauricio Pochettino brings in a completely new style of play, another haul of new signings and has a host of injuries for this opening game, so there will likely be some early teething issues, as well as personnel.
Wesley Fofana and Christopher Nkunku are long-term absentees, while Benoit Badiashile and Noni Madueke are both doubts.
I've had this down as a Liverpool win all week long.
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-3 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Seagulls too good
Another game that wasn't difficult to predict and was more about the scoreline was BRIGHTON beating Luton.
The Seagulls were exceptional after Roberto De Zerbi took charge and while they have lost a few key players, Brighton replace them shrewdly.
They are here to stay, and while I think Championship play-off winners Luton will be more competitive than many believe, this is a real baptism of fire.
A clash of styles that is unlikely to suit the Hatters, I expect a comfortable home win, though the underdogs can get on the scoresheet. After all, De Zerbi's side ranked mid-table on defensive metrics after he took charge, and kept just nine clean sheets in his 32 games.
Score prediction: Brighton 4-1 Luton (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Both hosts to edge it
I expect two narrow home wins for EVERTON over FULHAM and BOURNEMOUTH against WEST HAM.
The Toffees have plenty of continuity heading into the new campaign and impressed in a tough home schedule after Sean Dyche took over, going W4-D1-L4 despite playing seven top-half teams in that span.
They posted a marginally positive xG process (1.45 xGF and 1.44 xGA per game) meaning they have to be respected at Goodison.
Fulham have had a turbulent summer with Aleksandar Mitrovic wanting out and manager Marco Silva being tempted by a Saudi offer, while their star player last season Joao Palhinha is injured and will not feature in this game.
Add in the fact they were the worst defensive team in the league last term (1.88 xGA per game) and they appear to be a team to oppose early on in the campaign.
Score prediction: Everton 1-0 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
West Ham have had an equally troubling summer, with Declan Rice leaving and David Moyes at loggerheads with the board and director of football.
They travel to a Bournemouth side I think could be a surprise package this season under Andoni Iraola.
The Cherries have conducted some smart business in the window too.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-0 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
The trickiest two
The final two games were trickier to decipher.
I seem to be out on my own in the thought that NEWCASTLE can go close to replicating last season's fourth-placed finish, while not quite buying into the ASTON VILLA top-six-hype, so I have to take the Magpies to beat the Villains on opening weekend.
Eddie Howe's side ranked second in terms of xGD per game last season (+0.92) while racking up the third-most expected points (xP) and if anything have strengthened their XI this summer bringing in Sandro Tonali and Harvey Barnes.
Villa overperformed greatly after Unai Emery came in according to the data, ranking as only the 12th best attack in the league (1.37 xGF per game) while collecting the ninth most xP per game compared to the fifth-most actual points.
I need to see improvement from them to get on the bandwagon.
Score prediction: Newcastle 2-1 Villa (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
I'm glad this column gets published later in the week as assessing TOTTENHAM at BRENTFORD has been tricky thanks to the rumbling Harry Kane saga.
Even without Kane, we can expect goals in west London.
Ange Postecoglou starts his reign at Spurs and brings with him an expansive style that is all about attack. Spurs' defence, though, still leaves a lot to be desired.
Brentford, even without Ivan Toney, will create plenty too, so a score draw looks the way to go.
Score prediction: Brentford 2-2 Spurs (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
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