Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Baggies to avoid bite
For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.
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Round 32 predictions
- Sheffield United 1-2 Brighton
- Everton 2-1 Luton
- Leicester 2-0 Birmingham
- Fulham 2-1 Newcastle
- West Brom 1-1 Wolves
- Liverpool 3-0 Norwich
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A Black Country replay
- West Brom vs Wolves
- ITV 1: Sunday, 11:45 GMT
What a huge game this is. West Brom have proven to be an extremely strong home team this season, winning 10 of 15, posting an underlying process of 1.54 xGF and 0.83 xGA per game. Their only defeats at the Hawthorns came against runaway leaders Leicester and a 96th minute smash and grab by Huddersfield back in September.
Wolves aren't great travelers. They have won three and lost seven of their 13 away games this season, though they undoubtedly possess more quality than their hosts here. This could be cagey, and I can't split the pair.
Score prediction: West Brom 1-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
More away woes for Toon
- Fulham vs Newcastle
- ITV 4: Saturday, 19:00 GMT
Fulham looked good in midweek against Liverpool, drawing 1-1 at Craven Cottage as they exited the Carabao Cup at the semi-final stage. Marco Silva's side are in the comfort of mid-table in the Premier League, so will no doubt be eyeing up another cup run.
Eddie Howe's Newcastle will be well rested for this game, but they have travelled exceptionally poorly this season. They have won just twice in 14 road games across all competitions, while conceding 2.30 xGA per game.
Score prediction: Fulham 2-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Soaring Seagulls
- Sheffield United vs Brighton
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Sheffield United looked good against West Ham, but this is a step up. Brighton, FA Cup semi-finalists last season, have the quality in depth to make a deep run once again.
The Seagulls are welcoming back key players which makes them dangerous, and while the Blades will want to carry some sort of momentum into their next league game, Brighton's attack should have little issue creating at Bramall Lane.
Score prediction: Sheffield United 1-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
A rare Toffee home win
- Everton vs Luton
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Everton have had a rough time at Goodison Park this season, with just five wins in 15 across all competitions. One of those did come in their last home game in this competition, beating Crystal Palace in a replay.
Their underlying data remains impressive, suggesting they can make it back-to-back successes, with the added incentive that - while this isn't a league game - they can lay down a marker against the team just below them in the relegation battle.
Score prediction: Everton 2-1 Luton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
A King Power cruise
- Leicester vs Birmingham
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Leicester are seven points clear at the top of the Sky Bet Championship, so there seems no reason why they shouldn't look to make a serious cup run. Don't forget, they were the 2021 champions.
They have been sensational in the second tier this season, and while Birmingham look to have improved under Tony Mowbray, this is a big step up in class than who they've played since the switch (Swansea, Hull, Stoke).
Score prediction: Leicester 2-0 Birmingham (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Rampant Reds
- Liverpool vs Norwich
- ITV 1: Sunday, 14:30 GMT
Carabao Cup finalists already, something tells me Liverpool will be hungry for more, after all, the Reds did the domestic cup double back in 2022. They will likely rotate but it shouldn't make much of a difference for a team who have won 13 of 16 at Anfield this season.
This should be routine given the squad depth the Reds have, and Norwich have had major away struggles this season, losing nine of their last 15 road games.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-0 Norwich (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
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