Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: A case of how many?

By Jake Osgathorpe

Football

Sun December 17, 2023 · 1y ago

For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.

One correct score and two other correct results in midweek was a steady effort, and now attentions turn back to the Premier League, where we had two correct scores last week.

The big game is of course Liverpool's hosting of Manchester United, so let's start there.

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Round 25 predictions

Man City 2-1 C Palace
Chelsea 2-1 Sheff Utd
Newcastle 2-2 Fulham
Burnley 0-2 Everton
West Ham 1-2 Wolves
Liverpool 4-0 Man Utd

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Just how many?

Liverpool vs Manchester United
Sky Sports: Sunday, 16:30 GMT

We know what to expect here, right? A table-topping Liverpool team who are rampant at Anfield host a reeling and bottom-half worthy Manchester United team who just don't have any kind of style, system or quality, fresh from, European elimination.

The Reds have been sensational at home ever since Jurgen Klopp came to the club, but this season they have won all seven games, scored 21 times and conceded just five - three of which came last time out against Fulham. Their xG is process formidable (2.77 xGF, 1.04 xGA per game).

United are somehow sixth in the league table despite posting the 11th best underlying process, and it's only a matter of time before they fall to mid-table mediocrity if they continue in the same manner. Away from home things read a hell of a lot worse.

Erik ten Hag's side have collected the fifth fewest expected points (xP) away from home, while have generated just 1.27 xGF per game, really struggling in attack. Defensively they are shipping 1.91 xGA per away game, which is not ideal heading to a rampant rival who will love nothing more than to stick the boot in while keeping themselves top of the pile.

Score prediction: Liverpool 4-0 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)

City slump?

Manchester City vs Crystal Palace
Saturday, 15:00 GMT

Manchester City are in a slump, and while many will see a home game against a Crystal Palace team who have won just one of their last nine - losing six - as a great opportunity to get back on the horse, the Eagles can surprise a few people.

They were excellent last weekend against Liverpool, the better team with 11-men in fact, and while this is away from home, Roy Hodgson has shown he has the capability to stunt a City team at the Etihad. The Englishman went W1 D1 L1 across his last three visits in his previous tenure, with the low-block, counter-attacking style posing problems. I'm not saying they'll win, but it wouldn't shock me were they to keep it close.

Score prediction: Manchester City 2-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)

Blues win, just

Chelsea vs Sheffield United
Saturday, 15:00 GMT

Have Sheffield United given themselves a better chance of staying up by re-hiring Chris Wilder? Yes, yes they have. The Blades will be a much tougher out under their promotion winning boss, and will provide slightly more of a fear factor than under Paul Heckingbottom.

Their defeat against Liverpool saw them concede just 1.50 xGA before the late second, and at home to Brentford they limited the Bees to just 0.66 xGA. They have improved defensively. Chelsea remain untrustworthy, winning just four of 20 home league games this calendar year, losing eight, but do have a good process and top quality players which has me leaning in their direction.

Score prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Cottagers continue scoring spree

Newcastle vs Fulham
Saturday, 15:00 GMT

Fulham are back in goal crazy mode. We lost them for a brief spell, but Marco Silva's gung-ho side are back. Since the international break the Cottagers have scored 16 times in four league games, averaging 2.32 xGF per game, winning all three home matches and losing their sole away game at Anfield.

Newcastle's home record in the league is sensational (W7 L1), but can we trust the leggy-looking Magpies to go again after their grueling schedule with a skeleton XI? You can never write them off, but with Fulham creating plenty, goals should be on the cards and Silva's side can get a result.

Score prediction: Newcastle 2-2 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

Turf success for Toffees

Burnley vs Everton
Sky Sports: Saturday, 17:30 GMT

Dyche returns. And he returns with an Everton team absolutely on fire. They have won five of their last seven league games, including their last three on the road - two of which came to nil. Had they not had a 10-point deduction, they would sit in the top half, and their underlying process suggests that is no fluke at all.

Burnley have won once at home all season, against Sheffield United, conceding 20 in their other seven games at Turf Moor. They were fortunate to avoid defeat last weekend at Brighton, conceding a host of good chances, and that is likely to continue here.

Score prediction: Burnley 0-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Wolves pack a bite

West Ham vs Wolves
Sky Sports: Sunday, 14:00 GMT

West Ham haven't fared too well in matches following a Europa League game this season. Their record of W1 D2 L2 highlights a potential issue, especially as four of those games have come at home. Defensively they have been poor all season, conceding the fourth most xGA per game this campaign (1.89).

Wolves aren't much better on that front, but they create plenty and have shown to be an attack-minded team this season more than capable of scoring a plenty of goals. This one could be end-to-end.

Score prediction: West Ham 2-2 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

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