Away from the headline London derby, there are three other games in the Premier League on Sunday. Joe Townsend has best bets for each.
Recommended bets
1pt Sheffield United to keep a clean sheet against Fulham at 6/4
1pt Steven Alzate to be shown a card in Brighton v Palace at 9/2
1pt Tyrone Mings to have 1+ shots on target in Leicester v Villa at 11/2
0.5pt Ezri Konsa to score anytime in Leicester v Villa at 22/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Leicester v Aston Villa
- 7.15pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match odds: Home 5/6 | Draw 29/10 | Away 29/10
Leicester's odds-on price really caught my eye here and not just because Aston Villa beat Liverpool 7-2 in their last game.
I've been a consistent advocate for Villa this season after their impressive post-lockdown upturn, and their evens double chance price is generous. Dean Smith's team have won their opening three fixtures and are now unbeaten in seven in the Premier League.
Had this match closely followed Leicester's 3-0 home defeat by West Ham, an anticlimactic way to end their 100% start to the season, and Villa's incredible win over Liverpool I'd probably be taking the visitors to avoid defeat. But a fortnight's international break can do strange things.
So instead I'm returning to a Tyrone Mings punt that has already delivered this season. I wrote in this week's Punting Pointers about Leicester's poor set-piece defending, no-one has conceded more, and Villa's strength in scoring from them since football returned in June.
Mings was 11/4 to have 1+ shots against Fulham, a match in which he hit the target twice and scored with one, and is 2/1 to have an attempt at the King Power. That price is OK, but where the value remains is in backing him to force a save from Kasper Schmeichel, with Paddy Power offering 11/2.
For the more speculative, Sky Bet have the England centre-back at 40/1 to repeat the two shots on target he managed against Fulham. But to small stakes what I can't say no to is Mings' centre-half partner Ezri Konsa as a 22/1 anytime goalscorer when he's netted twice in his last six games.
Score prediction: Leicester 1-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Best bets:
Sheffield United v Fulham
- 12pm BST kick-off on BT Sport Box Office
- Match odds: Home 21/20 | Draw 23/10 | Away 11/4
It might only be matchday five but this is already a huge fixture at the bottom of the Premier League, with these the only two sides to have lost their opening four games. Both showed signs of encouragement in narrow defeats before the international break, Sheffield United losing 2-1 at Arsenal and Fulham going down 1-0 at Wolves.
Supporters can be optimistic too that steps have been taken to resolve their team's glaring issues. Having netted only once so far this term the Blades spent £23m to sign Rhian Brewster, while Fulham rang the defensive changes for their trip to Molineux having conceded 10 goals in three matches; Scott Parker has also brought in further reinforcements.
Of the 18 teams to have played four matches Sheffield United have the fifth-best defensive record, quite startling given their place in the table. Despite the Premier League's bonkers goals return this season, this isn't a match I see their being many in.
Under 2.5 goals gives little value at 7/10, with under 1.5 not great either at 41/20 considering Fulham's porous defence.
Chris Wilder's team are 6/4 to keep a clean sheet and that's where I'm heading. Their defensive record stacks up, and breaking down the goals they have conceded shows it to be a smart play.
A crazy opening five minutes to the campaign saw them concede twice against Wolves, but despite playing 80 minutes with 10 men at Villa it was two-and-a-half hours before they conceded again. Another two hours followed without being breached, until an 88th-minute winner for Leeds. The Blades' most recent defeat at Arsenal was settled by two goals just after the hour.
You can get them at 23/10 to win to nil, and while I do fancy Wilder's men to edge it backing a team who have lost seven straight Premier League games isn't sensible, even against Fulham. We haven't had a goalless draw in the Premier League yet this season; this is a candidate.
Score prediction: Sheffield United 1-0 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Crystal Palace v Brighton
- 2pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match odds: Home 17/10 | Draw 9/4 | Away 13/8
I didn't need much persuading to take Tom Carnduff's advice in this week's Punting Pointers - I'm throwing my weight behind midfielder Steven Alzate to get his name in the referee's notebook when Brighton head to Crystal Palace.
Tom delivered a superb double winner on the card front in Monday's Sky Bet League Two game between Bradford and Harrogate, so is in great form when it comes to picking out overzealous midfielders.
What helps this weekend is the nature of the match. While it may seem unlikely, Palace and Brighton share a bitter rivalry that began decades ago when former Spurs team-mates Terry Venables and Alan Mullery were in charge of the Eagles and Seagulls respectively.
That can only help us on the cards front, with a further boost coming from the referee appointment. Stuart Attwell is the man tasked with keeping the peace at Selhurst Park and he has shown 13 yellow cards in just two games this season.
Alzate was booked last time out against Everton, his first caution of the season, and is 9/2 to pick one up on Sunday.
The Colombian has made the second-most fouls in the top flight this term, committing four against both Newcastle and Everton and six against Manchester United - those 9/2 odds look really good.
It's likely to be tight, derbies often are and this is a 'derby' of sorts, which is well emphasised by the record between the sides since Brighton entered the Premier League: two draws and two wins apiece.
As the outside price, the draw is the value.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best bet: Steven Alzate to be shown a card at 9/2
Mark O'Haire's Super Sunday preview
Jose Mourinho returned to Old Trafford and humiliated his old club with a 6-1 annihilation of Manchester United before the international break. Son Heung-min and Harry Kane scored twice, with Tanguy Ndombele and Serge Aurier also on target as Spurs outplayed their opposition in almost every facet. It was a standout and noteworthy success.
Of course, the appalling efforts of Man Utd have to be taken into account but from a Tottenham perspective, there are promising signs. Spurs have appeared sharper and more cohesive since their opening day outing against Everton, expertly handling a ridiculously heavy schedule, as well as strengthening their squad with a number of key additions.
The season might only be a month old but West Ham sit amongst the front-runners across all the major performances data metrics, suggesting the visitors should be well capable of at least keeping this contest competitive. Ordinarily the Hammers’ rotten road record would be cause for concern, although the guests have still been scoring regularly on their travels.
So whilst I suspect Moyes’ boys will have their moments against Spurs, ultimately Tottenham are understandably expected to edge proceedings and therefore the 2/1 available on the hosts to win alongside Both Teams To Score feels like a fair price to cheer on this Super Sunday.
Elsewhere, Tomas Soucek is well worth considering at evens to land an attempt on-target. The Czech midfielder has already fired in 12 attempts in his opening four league fixtures this term, landed seven on-target strikes in 12 starts at the back end of 2019/20 and is a major threat from set-pieces for the Hammers.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bets:
Read Mark O'Haire's Spurs v West Ham preview in full
Odds correct as of 1400 BST on 15/10/20
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