Sporting Life
Sporting Life's Premier League Sunday preview package and free tips
Sporting Life's Premier League Sunday preview package and free tips

Premier League betting tips: Preview, predictions & best bets for Sunday including Aston Villa v Tottenham and Arsenal v Newcastle

By Paul Higham
Football
Sun February 16, 2020 · 5y ago

Preview, predictions & best bets for Sunday including Aston Villa v Tottenham and Arsenal v Newcastle.

Recommended bets

1pt Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals in Villa v Spurs at evens

1pt Arsenal to beat Newcastle & both teams to score at 11/5

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Arsenal v Newcastle

  • 1630 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports

Sunday's second game is no easier to unpick, largely for the same reasons as the first as the trust levels in both of these outfits are pretty low. Mikel Arteta still only has one league win to his name as new Arsenal boss, although he also only has one defeat as well - and that was an unlucky one against Chelsea.

Draws have been Arteta's specialty and even now after nine games in total we're still not quite sure if he's going in the right direction or not and although Newcastle head to the Emirates as rank 7/1 outsiders they've probably got a better chance than that of getting something from the game.

They've managed just three away wins all season but draws at Wolves and Everton were decent results, although it seems a tough ask as the Gunners are at least looking a tougher outfit to beat under Arteta so far.

Arsenal are the undoubted draw specialists in this division with 13 to their name already meaning they've drawn over half their games, and the stalemate does come into play here given that Newcastle will come to try and frustrate the hosts, and will be rested enough to stick to a game plan.

It looks like a home win though, even if it ends up being a narrow one, and the major question is can Newcastle score as they have done in four of the last five Premier League away games - our answer here is yes.

Prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Best bets: Arsenal to beat Newcastle & both teams to score at 11/5

Key stats

  • Arsenal have won 13 of their last 14 Premier League games against Newcastle, losing the other 1-2 at St James’ Park in April 2018.
  • Newcastle have lost each of their last seven Premier League away games against Arsenal, since winning 1-0 at the Emirates thanks to an Andy Carroll goal in November 2010.
  • Arsenal are unbeaten in all competitions so far in 2020 (W3 D4), though they have drawn their last four league games after beating Manchester United on New Year’s Day.
  • Arsenal have dropped nine points from winning positions in home Premier League games this season – only in 2001-02 (14) and 2004-05 (11) have they lost more at home in a single campaign in the competition.
  • Newcastle are unbeaten in their last four Premier League games (W1 D3), last having a longer run without defeat in the competition between April-May 2016 (6 games).
  • Newcastle are averaging 9.9 shots per game in the Premier League this season, their lowest average in a season in the competition we have on record (since 1997-98).
  • Arsenal haven’t lost a home league match in February since 2006, when West Ham became the last side to beat the Gunners at Highbury. They’ve won 20 and drawn five of their 25 such games since.
  • Mikel Arteta (W1 D5 L1) is just the second Arsenal manager to win only one of his first seven league games in charge of the club after Steve Burtenshaw in 1986.
  • Newcastle striker Joelinton has gone 22 Premier League games and 1766 minutes without scoring, since netting away in north London versus Spurs in August. The Brazilian has netted two goals in the FA Cup in this period, although both strikes came against League One opposition.
  • 25 of Arsenal striker Alexandre Lacazette’s 32 Premier League goals have been scored in home games, including each of his last eight. Of all Arsenal players to have scored at least 15 goals in the competition, Lacazette has scored the highest ratio in home games (78%)

Aston Villa v Tottenham

  • 1400 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports

Villa managed to avoid dropping into the bottom three last week as results went their way, but they'll need to set up from their defeat at Bournemouth as they welcome a Spurs side still in that top four hunt but by no means in convincing form.

Jose Mourinho's men are enjoying a nice little run in all competitions, but that includes a collection of FA Cup ties and, although back-to-back home wins have kept them in touch, they've still only won twice away in the league all season and three times overall.

Spurs managed to somehow beat Man City 2-0 last time out after Pep Guardiola's champions took their profligacy in front of goal to another level. In the world of expected goals, that win over City was classed by xG experts Infogol as the most unfair result they've ever seen - even using the less analytical method of your own two eyes though you could see it was daylight robbery.

While we're on the xG train, Villa are the worst team in the league in terms of the difference between them creating goalscoring chances and conceding them, but with Spurs also giving away plenty of clear cut chances of late we should see both of them find the net.

That theory is enhanced by the fact Villa's last eight home games has seen both teams to score while all but two of the last 12 Spurs away games have also had goals at both ends.

My problem in the match result here is one of trust - you just can't trust a travel-sick Spurs at odds-on to win at Villa Park, but neither can you trust the hosts to take all three points so that's why I'd probably settle on the draw if pushed, or Villa draw no bet (2/1).

Steer clear of the result in the advice, instead backing both teams to score and a few goals in a game that may not be high in quality but should have plenty of goal mouth action given how many chances both sides usually give up.

Prediction: Aston Villa 2-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Best bet: Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals in match at Evens

Key stats

  • Aston Villa are winless in their last eight Premier League home games against Spurs (D2 L6), losing each of the last four in a row. They last beat Spurs at Villa Park in January 2008 (2-1)
  • In all competitions, Spurs have won 10 of their last 11 meetings with Aston Villa, losing the other 0-1 at White Hart Lane in April 2015.
  • Tottenham are unbeaten in their last 22 Premier League away games against promoted sides (W18 D4) since a 0-1 loss at QPR in April 2012.
  • Aston Villa’s seven Premier League victories this season have come on six different days of the week, with Sunday the only day the Villans have yet to win on in 2019-20. Victory here will see Aston Villa become just the second team in English top-flight history to win a league game on all seven days of the week within the same season, after Spurs in 1986-87.
  • Tottenham are looking to secure three consecutive Premier League victories for the first time since a run of four in January/February 2019. However, the Lilywhites have won just two of their last 18 league games on the road (D5 L11).
  • Aston Villa have faced more shots than any other Premier League side this season (441). Their record of 17.6 shots faced per game is their highest in a single campaign in the competition since we have this data available (2003-04).
  • Tottenham have had fewer shots on target (110) than they have faced (125) in the Premier League this season – the last time they faced more than they had in a single season in the competition was in 2003-04 (194-179).
  • Of away grounds he’s visited at least five times in the Premier League, only at St James’ Park (0/7) has Spurs boss José Mourinho won fewer games than he has at Villa Park (1/6).
  • Jack Grealish has created 63 chances for his teammates in the Premier League this season, more than double that of any other Aston Villa player. He’s also the first player to register 50+ shots and 50+ chances created in a single top-flight campaign for the Villans since Christian Benteke in 2012-13.
  • In Spurs’ 2-0 win against Man City, Steven Bergwijn became the 250th player to score on his Premier League debut, and the 13th Dutchman – no Dutch player has ever scored in both of their first two appearances in the competition.

Odds correct as of 1700 GMT on 13/02/20

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