It's a bumper Super Sunday of action with four of the so-called 'big six' in action. Paul Higham has our preview and best bets with goals expected everywhere bar Newcastle.
Recommended bets
2pts Arsenal to win & both teams to score at 7/5
1pt Man City to win & both teams to score at 19/10
1pt Chelsea to beat Southampton at 10/11
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Newcastle v Manchester United
- 1630 BST kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League
It's the final game of the weekend but we'll start with this one as it's crucial one loaded with possible fall-out for any loser, given the situations Steve Bruce and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer find themselves in - getting hammered at Leicester and drawing at AZ Alkmaar will do that.
Bruce has never beaten United as manager but he'll never have a better chance with United without an away win in their last seven and with just four goals to their name in those contests. Things just aren't right at Old Trafford and, if Newcastle aren't going to get a response after their Leicester humiliation then they never will under Bruce. If, and it's a big if these days, their fans fill out St James' Park and produce a decent atmosphere then they'll have a real chance.
Both of these two have five points from the last five games and nothing about watching either of them that would give you any confidence in backing them to actually go on and win a game of football - between them they've scored 13 goals in 14 games and that tells you all you need to know.
United still have more quality, and surely they have to improve at some stage, but at odds-on there's no interest in backing them here, while the lack of attacking potency means even backing what should be nailed-on under 2.5 goals is pegged at prohibitive prices.
The 7/2 for Newcastle to edge it will tempt a few, but personally the 2/1 on them 'draw no bet' would be the recommendation, but you'd not want to entrust your hard-earned to either of those, so we're heading into the cards market. One thing these teams should both be is fired up so we can expect a few tackles - and no team has been fouled more than Man Utd this season - so in a game of so little quality but so many variables, having five bookings at least should be the one thing we can count on.
Prediction: Newcastle 1-1 Man United (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bet: Over 4.5 cards at 11/10
Key stats
- Newcastle United have won three of their last 31 Premier League games against Manchester United (W3 D7 L21), losing both matches during the 2018-19 campaign.
- Manchester United have won 13 away Premier League games at Newcastle – they’ve only won more away at Aston Villa (15) and Everton (16).
- Newcastle United have failed to win any of their opening three Premier League home games. There have been just four occasions in top-flight league history where they’ve failed to be victorious in any of their first four games at St James’ Park in a campaign, with two of those coming in the last five years (1898-99, 1905-06, 2015-16 and 2018-19).
- Excluding penalties, Marcus Rashford has scored with just one of his last 36 shots in the Premier League (vs Chelsea on the opening weekend), failing to find the net with any of his last 16 such shots in the competition.
Arsenal v AFC Bournemouth
- 1230 BST kick-off on BT Sport
The much-maligned Europa League does have it's good points - and Arsenal's mid-week stroll against Standard Liege will give all involved a timely confidence boost ahead of another friendly fixture against a Bournemouth side who they've beaten at the Emirates five times out of five.
The problem for the Cherries here is that they like to play football, they just can't play it as well as Arsenal can - they also can't stop leaking goals, especially in London where they've let in five goals in each of their last three. While I don't think they'll ship another five, there should be goals here.
For all of Arsenal's obvious problems, it's rather overlooked that they're dominant at home with just one defeat in their last 21 in the league at the Emirates, and they should at least make that 22 unbeaten and more than likely will bag the three points.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang needs a goal to match Dennis Bergkamp's 21-year record for goals in the first eight games of a season, while he loves scoring on a Sunday with two-third of his 39 league goals coming on this day. Callum WIlson loves a goal against Arsenal (three in four) and is on a four-game scoring run so the 9/2 on both of them to bag will be popular.
Defensive deficiencies in both rearguards also make the both teams to score market jump off the page at you - BTTS has come in all but one league game played by these two teams so wrap that up with Arsenal to win and there's no need to look any further in this one.
Prediction: Arsenal 3-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)
Best bet: Arsenal to win & both teams to score at 7/5
Key stats
- Arsenal have won all five of their home matches against Bournemouth in all competitions (four in the Premier League, one in the League Cup). Bournemouth have taken only four points from eight Premier League matches against Arsenal (W1 D1 L6).
- In all competitions, Arsenal only have a better 100%-win ratio in home games against Gainsborough Trinity (8 wins), Reading (6) and Stockport County (6) than against Bournemouth (5).
- Bournemouth have lost their last three Premier League matches in London, conceding five goals in every game. In top-flight history, no team have ever conceded 5+ in four consecutive away matches in London (Birmingham in 1957 and Sunderland 1969 also three in a row).
Manchester City v Wolves
- 1400 BST kick-off
"The much-maligned Europa League does have it's good points" someone once wrote, but for Wolves it's quote the opposite who've only managed to beat Watford this season as Thursday night football has taken its toll - they could really do without a trip to the champions after playing out in Turkey this week.
It takes so much effort, so much concentration and focus on the gameplan to get anything from the Etihad. Wolves definitely have the players but surely won't have the reserves to dig out a result. There's not doubt that attack will be their best form of defence here as City's patched-up back line is a weak point.
Everton caused plenty of problems but couldn't capitalise on them, Nuno Espirito Santo strikes me as a bit more of a canny operator than compatriot Marco Silva and if he concentrates on getting the ball forward quickly and getting to the heart of that City defence, they can have some success.
City are odds-on to win to nil, but I fancy Wolves can at least find the target at some point.
Prediction: Man City 3-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: Man City to win & both teams to score at 19/10
Key stats
- Wolves haven’t won a top-flight away match against Man City since December 1979, when they won 3-2; they’ve drawn one and lost six since then.
- Manchester City have only failed to score in one of their last 44 home Premier League games (W39 D3 L2), a goalless draw with Huddersfield in May 2018. They’ve scored 142 goals at the Etihad in that run, netting five or more on 11 different occasions.
- Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne has provided eight assists in the Premier League this season, double that of any other player in the competition. The only player to assist as many as nine goals in their sides first eight games to a Premier League campaign was Cesc Fàbregas at Arsenal in 2009-10.
Southampton v Chelsea
- 1400 BST kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League
Still not sure what to make of Saints this season, both of their wins this season have come away from home but their two best performances have been at St Mary's in a draw against Man Utd and defeat to Liverpool, and it's that blueprint that I think they'll follow against Chelsea.
Frank Lampard is getting his feet under the table and there's no doubt performances, as well as results, are improving - the display against Liverpool could well have been the moment when his young stars realised they could mix it with the very best at this level.
Winning late on in Lille was impressive and the up-turn in form of Willian in particular is a huge boost - even if it means that big signing Christian Pulisic can't get a sniff of the first team right now. If you had to imagine how this will go it's an energetic, scrappy performance from the hosts with just the extra qualify in Chelsea pinching it in the end for a fifth straight win at St Mary's.
There's a slight disparity in prices for an away win but the best price of 10/11 for me is worth investment - sometimes it pays to keep it simple.
Prediction: Southampton 1-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Chelsea to beat Southampton at 10/11
Key stats
- Southampton have won only two of their last 20 Premier League meetings with Chelsea (W2 D6 L12) and are winless in the last seven (W0 D1 L6).
- Chelsea have scored at least once in each of their last 15 away games against Southampton in all competitions (33 goals in total), last failing to find the net in a 0-1 loss in December 1997.
- Southampton have found the net in each of their last 17 home Premier League games, last having a longer run in the top-flight between April 1980-December 1981 (31 games). However, Saints have only kept one clean sheet in the current run of 17.
- Only Watford (33) have conceded more Premier League away goals in 2019 than Chelsea (27). However, the Blues have won their last two on the road despite conceding twice each time.
- After English players had scored their first 11 Premier League goals this season, Chelsea’s last three have been netted by a Frenchman, an Italian and a Brazilian.
Odds correct as of 1500 BST on 04/10/19
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