Premier League tips: Betting previews, score predictions & best bets for Sunday's action
With 7/1 and 17/4 winners in last Sunday's preview, Tom Carnduff is hoping for more success as he picks out two best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Dominic Calvert-Lewin to have 2+ shots on target at 3/1
1pt Bruno Fernandes to be shown a card in Manchester United v Manchester City at 10/3
1pt Scott McTominay to be shown a card in Manchester United v Manchester City at 13/4
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Chelsea v Everton
Chelsea currently hold the fourth spot in the Premier League but Everton will also have one eye on European football given Manchester City's potential Champions League ban.
Carlo Ancelotti's men are five points off Manchester United in fifth and, given United's fixture against Pep Guardiola's City in Sunday's later kick-off, Everton could move within two points of that spot with victory here.
Frank Lampard's men will be boosted by their FA Cup victory over Liverpool in midweek but their form has been far too inconsistent this season.
Their last ten games have seen four wins, three wins and three defeats but it's been enough to keep them in the Premier League's top-four. Given the amount of teams in that chasing pack, they could well be out of it by full-time on matchday 38.
Everton's fortunes have turned around since Ancelotti's arrival at the club. Even though they failed to win either of their last two games, the performances were positive and they could consider themselves unlucky not to have picked up all three points in their last fixture.
One player who has benefitted greatly from Ancelotti's appointment as manager is Dominic Calvert-Lewin. The Toffees striker is in fantastic form with ten goals in his last 13 appearances.
The 22-year-old also netted us a 17/4 winner last week as he was booked in that 1-1 draw with United. He's the subject of another best bet, but this is looking at him registering shots on target.
In particular, taking the 3/1 price with Sky Bet on Calvert-Lewin having two or more shots on target in this game looks appealing value given his recent track record in front of goal.
All seven of his last Premier League appearances have seen at least three total shots. There were a total of four in his last game, with five in their 3-2 away defeat at Arsenal.
Of those five in their last away game, three found the target and of course he scored in the opening minute of the contest. In total, his 29 shots on target across the season put him eleventh overall in the Premier League.
That's significant considering that just two of his first 12 league fixtures this season saw more than the single shot registered. His form in front of goal has drastically improved, so too has his shots on target statistic.
In a game that could go either way, but a game where both teams should score, the 3/1 on two or more on target for the Everton striker is worth taking.
In terms of that outright result, it's probably worth sitting on the fence here given the inconsistency of the home side. Everton will settle for a point, while Chelsea will be eager to continue adding to their tally.
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bet: Dominic Calvert-Lewin to have 2+ shots on target at 3/1
Opta facts
- Chelsea have lost their last two Premier League games against Everton; the Blues haven’t lost three consecutive league games against the Toffees since August 1984 (five in a row).
- Everton are winless in their last 24 away Premier League games against Chelsea (D11 L13) since a 1-0 win in November 1994. The Toffees have only had a longer away winless run in the top-flight against Leeds United between 1946 and 2001 (35 games).
- Chelsea are looking to keep four consecutive home league clean sheets against Everton for the first time since February 1935.
- Since Carlo Ancelotti’s first game in charge of Everton on Boxing Day, only Liverpool (30) and Manchester City (19) have won more Premier League points than the Toffees (18). Indeed, Everton have scored in all 10 of their league games under the Italian – the current longest scoring run in the division.
- Just 38% of Chelsea’s Premier League goals this season have been scored in home games (18/47), the lowest rate in the division. Only two teams have ever scored a lower ratio at home in a completed Premier League campaign – Crystal Palace in 2018-19 (37%) and Man City in 2006-07 (34%).
- Chelsea have won just two of their eight games in the Premier League in 2020 (W2 D4 L2), registering the 11th best record in this calendar year.
- Everton have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 13 Premier League away games – only Aston Villa (21) are enduring a longer such current run amongst this season’s participants.
- Chelsea wing-back Marcos Alonso has been directly involved in six goals (four goals and two assists) in just 769 minutes of Premier League action this season, averaging a goal involvement every 128 minutes; only Michy Batshuayi (113 minutes) and Tammy Abraham (122) have been involved in a Chelsea goal more frequently.
- Everton manager Carlo Ancelotti has never previously faced Chelsea, who he managed between 2009 and 2011. In away games against teams he’s previously managed, the Italian has won just one of his last 14 games (D5 L8), a 4-0 win at Parma with Napoli in February 2019.
- Richarlison has been directly involved in three goals in five Premier League games against Chelsea (2 goals, 1 assist), finding the net in his last two against them. No Brazilian player has ever scored in three consecutive Premier League appearances against Chelsea (Edu also netted in two between 2003 and 2004).
Manchester United v Manchester City
We're treated to the fourth Manchester derby of the season as United welcome City to Old Trafford.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's men have enjoyed the bragging rights throughout the course of the campaign with two victories compared to City's one. Their main issue is that the blue side's victory was a convincing one at United's home.
City are the odds-on favourites, as expected, but United have shown that they can go toe-to-toe with Pep Guardiola's side. A closer game than the odds suggest should be expected for that reason.
The positive news for the neutral, and myself especially, is that the Premier League have appointed Mike Dean as the referee for this one. An already-entertaining contest has just been given that bit more.
That instantly provides appeal in the cards market. Dean's last three Premier League games have seen at least six cards shown, with red cards coming in Tottenham's 2-0 win over City and Wolves' 0-0 draw with Leicester.
16 of Dean's Premier League games during the 2019/20 campaign have brought a minimum of four cards. Given the rivalry, and expected intensity, it would be fair to expect that record to continue on Sunday afternoon.
You have to go to 70+ booking points to get an odds-against price with Sky Bet, such is the expectation on a busy game for the referee. Rather than go for 13/8 on that marker, there's better value in backing individual players to go into the referee's book.
In particular, Scott McTominay's best price of 13/4 immediately jumps off the page. The midfielder has three yellows on his tally this season but his fouls record suggests there should have been more.
17 of his 19 Premier League appearances have seen at least one foul committed. Eight of those games have also brought a total of two or more - the stand-out being two fouls in just eleven minutes during the 3-0 win over Watford.
Sitting at the base of midfield, there's every chance that McTominay will be drawn into the battles for the ball and there's a good chance he commits at least two fouls in the game. One of those could see him carded.
Given the statistics, there is value in the 13/4 available on a booking. The 10/3 available on United star Bruno Fernandes is also worth consideration in the circumstances.
The January arrival has one card on his United tally already but a total of 12 across all competitions. His foul count is also typically quite high; 50% of his Premier League appearances have brought at least two.
There were also at least two fouls in nine of his Liga NOS games in Portugal. In similar fashion to McTominay, the type of game this is and the referee appointment could see him booked as well.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Scott McTominay to be shown a card at 13/4
Best bet: Bruno Fernandes to be shown a card at 10/3
Opta facts
- Manchester United have lost their last three home games against Manchester City in all competitions – they have only lost four against them consecutively once previously, between January 1926 and February 1931.
- Man City have already lost twice against Man Utd this season, losing in the Premier League and League Cup – they have lost three times against them in three previous seasons; 1956-57, 1995-96 and 2009-10.
- The away side has won six of the last seven matches between Man Utd and Man City in all competitions, with the exception a 3-1 home win for Man City in November 2018.
- Manchester United are looking to complete a league double over Man City for the first time since Alex Ferguson retired, last achieving it in 2009-10. The last Red Devils manager other than Ferguson to achieve a double over City was Dave Sexton in the 1978-79 season.
- Man City have won their last three Premier League matches at Old Trafford, and could become the first top-flight side to win four in a row away to Man Utd since the Citizens themselves did a run of five between 1968-1972.
- Manchester United have kept a clean sheet in three of their last four home league games, including each of the last two. They last recorded three consecutive shutouts at Old Trafford back in February 2018.
- Manchester City are unbeaten in all 10 of their Premier League games in March under manager Pep Guardiola (W8 D2), winning each of the last seven in a row. Their last defeat in the month came in 2016 against Manchester United.
- Man City manager Pep Guardiola has won all three of his Premier League away games against Man Utd – no visiting manager has won more at Old Trafford.
- Since the start of last season, no player has made more errors leading to a goal in the Premier League than Man Utd’s David De Gea (7). The Spaniard has also conceded 33 Premier League goals against Man City (11 more than vs any other opponent), shipping a goal on average every 46 minutes against them.
- In all competitions, Man City’s Sergio Agüero has netted nine goals in Manchester derby matches – only Wayne Rooney (11), Joe Hayes (10) and Francis Lee (10) have netted more in the fixture. Meanwhile, in the Premier League, only Steven Gerrard (5) has scored more goals at Old Trafford as a visiting player than Agüero (4).
Odds correct at 1515 GMT (05/03/20)
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