Sporting Life
Chelsea and Manchester United meet in the FA Cup final at Wembley
Chelsea and Manchester United meet in the FA Cup final at Wembley

FA Cup quarter-final betting preview: Predictions & free FA Cup tips for Sunday's three quarter-final ties

By Paul Higham
Football
Sun June 28, 2020 · 4y ago

Sunday is the big day for the FA Cup quarter-finals with three games taking place. Paul Higham has his preview and best bets.

Recommended bets

1pt Leicester to beat Chelsea in 90 mins at 7/4

1pt Over 3.5 goals in Newcastle v Man City at Evens

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Sheffield United v Arsenal

Tough one this. Before the lockdown you'd put the mortgage on Chris Wilder's Blades, backed by a full house at Bramall Lane, to bully Mikel Arteta's side and power through to the semi-finals.

However, United have struggled since the restart and the Gunners actually managed to win an away game last time out at Southampton. You must note that Arsenal had only 47% possession in that one and were gifted a goal by Saints keeper Alex McCarthy, before the hosts had a late red card.

In short, that's not enough to convince me their over their problems, but it certainly muddies these betting waters now the Blades seem to have lost their mojo.

Chris Wilder celebrates Sheffield United's victory at Norwich

Team news will be important here with games coming thick and fast and Premier League issues to be sorted. David Luiz is back for Arsenal and maybe Arteta should just throw him straight back into the mix after all the furore over his new contract. It's certainly be a boost if he plays - for Sheffield United that is.

Eddie Nketiah is far more dangerous for the Blades, as he's scored in all four cup games this season for Leeds and Arsenal, and he's netted Arsenal's first goal in two of his last four substantial apapearances. He's 9/2 to do it again.

The draw (9/4) is a real danger here with these two stalemate specialists (24 in the league between them) so extra time could well come in to play and possibly even penalties (6/1 either team wins on pens).

For the record I'm going for a draw, then it's anyone's game in extra time, and if pushed I'd go with the Blades to get through somehow (Evens), but in reality I'll be looking at the goals.

An incredible 23 of 31 Sheff Utd league games this season have gone under 2.5 goals, they average exactly two goals a game, and there's every chance that'll be the maximum return on Sunday.

Prediction: Sheffield United 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Best bet: Under 2.5 goals in Sheff Utd v Arsenal at 8/11

Sheffield United vs Arsenal Opta stats

  • Arsenal have won just one of their last eight away matches against Sheffield United in all competitions (D4 L3), a 3-0 win in October 2007 in the League Cup.
  • Arsenal have progressed from 13 of their last 15 FA Cup quarter-final matches, losing in this run in 2010-11 against Man Utd and 2015-16 against Watford.
  • Sheffield United’s six FA Cup goals this season have been scored by different players (Robinson, Clarke, Besic, Norwood, McGoldrick, Sharp); they last had more scorers in a season back in 2013-14 (nine).
  • This is Sheffield United manager Chris Wilder’s 35th match as a manager in the FA Cup proper but only his second against a Premier League side – the Blades lost 1-0 to Leicester City in the fifth round in 2017-18.
  • Eddie Nketiah has scored in all four of his domestic cup appearances this season for Leeds United and Arsenal, netting four goals. In his career, Nketiah has scored six goals in eight domestic cup games (FA/League Cup), averaging a goal every 83 minutes.

Leicester v Chelsea

There are some serious bad omens for Leicester here, and not just because we've backed them pre-tournament to win the FA Cup, but there's a big bogey team element about Chelsea for the Foxes.

Leicester haven't won any of their eight FA Cup ties with Chelsea, have been knocked out in 10 cup ties overall and have won just two of the last 20 meetings. Brendan Rodgers has also never beaten the Blues as a manager in 14 attempts - no time like the present I suppose.

Watching Frank Lampard's men sting Man City on Thursday won't have given Leicester any reason for optimisim, although they won't sell the farm by racing forward with abandon and leaving the back door open. The also won't have Banjamin Mendy as their last line of defence.

Chelsea are the third best away side in the Premier League, although they've bagged the same 27 points from both home and away fixtures so far. Most of those away points were taken early on though and last week's win at Villa was their first in five.

They actually lost the xG battle with Villa and the majority of their chances against City were caused by bad defending or Pep Guardiola's side leaving acres of space for Pulisic and Willian to scamper in to - odds are Leicester won't afford them such room for manoeuvre.

The Foxes also have a couple of extra days to prepare while Chelsea will have to make changes after their impressive efforts against City. There will still be a few players who have to play both games though, and if this does turn out to be survival of the fittest then the Foxes could just snap that poor cup run against the Blues.

Prediction: Leicester 2-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet ods: 9/1)

Best bet: Leicester to beat Chelsea in 90 mins at 7/4

Leicester City vs Chelsea Opta stats

  • Leicester are winless in all eight previous FA Cup matches against Chelsea (D2 L6), going out at the quarter-final stage in their last two ties against the Blues in 2011-12 and 2017-18.
  • Chelsea have only faced Hull City (11 games) and Burnley (9) more often in the FA Cup without losing than their eight unbeaten games against Leicester.
  • Chelsea have lost only two of their last 20 games against Leicester in all competitions (W13 D5 L2), although they are winless in four against the Foxes (D3 L1).
  • Leicester City are looking to reach the FA Cup semi-final for the first time since the 1981-82 campaign – they have been eliminated in four FA Cup quarter-finals since then, with the most recent two coming against Chelsea.
  • This is Chelsea’s 18th FA Cup quarter-final in the Premier League era (since 1992-93), more than any other side. They’ve progressed from six of their last seven, losing the other in 2015-16 away at Everton.

Newcastle v Man City

What should be a huge national audience will probably be asking why this lot are 23 points behind Liverpool after this one, as you suspect Pep Guardiola and his side will be furious at losing at Chelsea tohand the Reds the title.

The manner of the defeat, the sloppy defending that dogged them will be of particular annoyance, but this is a great game for them to put that right and continue down the road of what could still be a cup treble this season.

12/1 on a home win tells the story, but they will not be without a chance of City continue to defend in such a hopeless fashion - any long ball looked dangerous against Chelsea and Newcastle have a few speedsters who could cause problems on the break.

They’ve won nine FA Cup ties in a row since losing to Wigan two years ago with a combined scores of 35-4. They’ll be just the sixth team ever to win ten FA Cup games, and they should do it with a few goals as well.

CIty have had an impressive 15 of their 31 Premier League games go over 3.5 goals, and as we've seen this season Newcastle can ship a few goals with the best of them. The Magpies looked a lot better when dispatching ten-man Sheff Utd, but a ten-man Sheff Utd is not a fired-up Man City by any stretch.

Gabriel Jesus should start after looking lively off the bench on Thursday, and he's no stranger to an FA Cup goal, so expect him to find the net and City to score at least three time here as they put their lost Premier League behind them and progress in yet another cup run.

Prediction: Newcastle 1-3 Man City (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Best bet: Over 3.5 goals in Newcastle v Man City at Evens

Newcastle United vs Manchester City Opta stats

  • This is the first FA Cup encounter between Newcastle and Manchester City since the fifth round in 2001-02, when the Magpies won 1-0 via a Nolberto Solano strike.
  • Since a run of 16 wins in 18 games against Newcastle in all competitions (D1 L1), Man City are winless in their last two (D1 L1), last going three without a win in September 2005.
  • Newcastle United haven’t reached the FA Cup semi-final since 2004-05 under Graeme Souness, with this their first quarter-final tie since March 2006 against Chelsea, a 1-0 defeat.
  • Since losing to Wigan Athletic in the FA Cup fifth round in February 2018, Manchester City have won their last nine FA Cup matches by an aggregate score of 35-4, winning their three games against fellow Premier League opponents in this run 12-0.
  • Newcastle’s Miguel Almirón has scored more FA Cup goals than any other Premier League player this season, netting four times from just six shots on target in the competition.

Follow Sporting Life on social - find us on Facebook here or tweet @SportingLifeFC

Related football content

Responsible gambling

We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

Sky Bet's responsible gambling tools are detailed here and if you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.

Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.