Ben Coley previews Sunday's Premier League games, with goals firmly on the agenda as Liverpool host Manchester City.
Sunday's best bets
1pt Kevin De Bruyne to score at any time at 4/1
1pt first goal 15-30mins in Liverpool v Man City at 14/5
2pts Alexis Sanchez to score at any time at 5/4
Bournemouth v Arsenal (1330 GMT, live on Sky Sports)
For once, Arsenal don't look all that short here. They're odds-on, as you'd expect, but 8/11 looks very reasonable. They've been busy of late and suffered enough setbacks, but they should win.
Bournemouth haven't beaten a side in the top eight all season and, in three draws and a win since they were thumped by Liverpool, have given themselves some mountains to climb with poor defending. They're the sort of side Arsenal really should enjoy facing.
The Gunners are on a similarly poor run, but there are some caveats. Two draws with Chelsea represent a side playing to their ability, while the 1-1 draw at West Brom was unfortunate. Only last Sunday's abject display by a second-string side has to be forgiven to make them a confident bet.
Arsenal have scored 13 goals in five games (2, 2, 3, 3, 3) against Eddie Howe's side since their rise to the Premier League and it looks like they'll hang onto Alexis Sanchez for another few days. He played less than half an hour at Chelsea and, freshened up having also sat out at Forest, should be raring to go.
Aaron Ramsey is back in the squad, Mesut Ozil might even be fit, and Sead Kolasanic should be. With Jack Wilshere having recovered faster than expected from a knock on Wednesday, this won't be all that far off a first-choice Arsenal even if they will continue to miss Laurent Koscielny.
As was the case at Crystal Palace shortly after Christmas, Sanchez is expected to star in an away win to underline once more what Arsenal will be missing when he inevitably gets his wish and moves north to Manchester.
Prediction: Bournemouth 1-3 Arsenal
Best bet: Alexis Sanchez to score at 5/4
Alternative: Arsenal to win and BTTS at 2/1
Liverpool v Man City (1600, live on Sky Sports)
Expectations are set very high as the division's two most dynamic sides do battle at Anfield on Sunday.
For City, this is another key landmark on a road they hope will end in multiple trophies and perhaps even an unbeaten Premier League campaign, something fanciful in the extreme back in August but now a wholly realistic goal.
It's quite possible to argue that this game represents their biggest remaining challenge even as Liverpool begin life without Philippe Coutinho, who does leave a gaping hole in their line-up for all that he was packed off with best wishes from Jurgen Klopp and co on his way to Barcelona.
The hosts might be considered to hold a freshness advantage as this will be their first game for nine days, whereas a strong City side was named not just for Tuesday's Carabao Cup clash with Bristol City, but also their preceding FA Cup victory over Burnley.
On both occasions, City fell behind to show a degree of vulnerability which certainly wasn't in evidence when they beat Liverpool 5-0 back in September. That result does come with a caveat - City were leading only 1-0 when Sadio Mane was controversially dismissed - but a similar performance would probably ensure they remain unbeaten, even if Sunday's hosts deign to keep XI on the field this time.
Liverpool, though, were involved in a hectic and demanding Christmas, including that pulsating 3-3 draw at Arsenal and a Merseyside derby in the FA Cup. I wouldn't be certain they will feel any livelier than City and one point of concern for them is that they nosedived at precisely this time last year. I wonder if the combination of a game every other day and Klopp's heralded gegenpressing style played a part in defeats to Wolves, Hull and Swansea.
Any vulnerability on Liverpool's part will be exposed by the best side in the country who are a fair price at 5/4. Liverpool have not lost at Anfield since Crystal Palace in April but not since have they faced a task like this one. We've seen various lesser sides get at them and Virgil van Dijk may not be the golden goose his price tag says he should be.
Goals, then, appear fairly certain. It's just 8/15 that a total target of three is achieved and 5/4 that the league's highest scorers combine for four or more. City alone are 11/4 to score three-plus and while hardly the most tempting of prices, it does reflect how this should pan out. Expect a high-intensity slugfest, attack and counter-attack; that City have more away clean sheets than at home should count for very little.
Two angles appeal for a bet. Firstly, 12/5 that there are more goals in the first half than the second makes sense given the timing of the game, the fact that both sides have been and will be busy; if they do go at it like a pair of heavyweights, there may be little left towards the end.
The time of first goal line is set low, as you'd expect, but backing the opener to come between 15 and 30 minutes might offer some value at 14/5. Liverpool have scored a league-high 13 in this window (Arsenal and Manchester United both have five) and City are second with 10. To some degree this is as you'd expect from two generally high-scoring sides but there is a real concentration around this area. Plus, it fits in with the idea of a tentative first round, to lean on the heavyweight metaphor again, before things unwind.
The second and more sensible bet is Kevin De Bruyne to score at 4/1. Chiefly, the logic is that De Bruyne has a habit of scoring in big games - Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs this season; United, Spurs and Barcelona last; Bayern three times in his Wolfsburg days - but Tuesday's equaliser against Bristol City is also an excellent pointer.
The Belgian had seven goals to his name before that ruthless strike, and six came in three short bursts of two-in-two. He scored six Premier League goals last season - the first four came in two back-to-back sequences, and the last two were separated by a single blank.
De Bruyne is a man for the occasion. In David Silva's absence, and with Gabriel Jesus also sidelined, he has stepped up knowing that a contribution is needed. It was De Bruyne who scored the winner against Chelsea, the opener against Arsenal and the goal that ended the game against Spurs. He's fancied to again contribute when it matters most in a game which will surely live up to the hype.
Prediction: Liverpool 1 Man City 3
Best bet: Kevin De Bruyne to score at 4/1
Alternative: First goal 15-30mins at 14/5
Related links
- Premier League team news & stats
- Free football betting tips
- Live scores and in-play odds
- Latest football fixtures
- Football results
- Updated football tables
- Latest Paper Talk
- Sky Bet's football odds
Posted at 1635 GMT on 12/01/18