Football betting tips: Stoke v Swansea
1pt Stoke to win and under 3.5 goals at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
Stoke have struggled for consistency this season, leaving the club meandering in mid-table in the Sky Championship; an improvement on last term though.
They suffered their second consecutive league defeat at the weekend, slumping to a 2-1 defeat away at Brentford despite winning the expected goals (xG) battle – BRE 0.89 – 1.35 STO.
Kick-off time: Wednesday, 20:15 GMT
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Home 17/20 | Draw 21/10 | Away 7/4
To create two big chances (>35%) against Brentford, who boast the best defence in the league according to expected goals was impressive.
While Michael O'Neill’s side have now lost back-to-back games, those fixtures were against two of the second tier’s strongest teams - with defeat against Brentford following up a loss to in-form Barnsley.
Before those defeats, they had created 2.09 xG and 3.24 xG against Sheffield Wednesday and Luton respectively.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
While this suggests they fair better against ‘weaker’ teams, there’s reasons to believe they can get a positive result against the fourth placed Swansea here.
Their underlying numbers (1.18 expected goals for (xGF) and 0.91 expected goals against (xGA) per game) at home have been respectable all season, and their recent glimpses of quality in terms of creating opportunities are promising.
Swansea, meanwhile, will feel aggrieved at losing to Bristol City on Saturday.
Are Swansea good enough to win promotion?
They dominated at the Liberty Stadium, creating overwhelmingly more chances, yet still somehow lost 3-1 (xG: SWA 4.36 – 1.19 BRI).
Scoring just once from 4.36 xG is incredibly rare, although it was perhaps their fortune finally wearing thin, as the Swans have overperformed all campaign.
Their strong defensive process (0.98 xGA per game) has allowed them to mount a promotion charge this term, but now the cracks are beginning to show elsewhere, with Steve Cooper’s side ordinary in attack, particularly when playing away.
The Welsh club have created an average of 1.02 xGF per game on the road. Only four teams, two currently in the relegation zone, have a worse away attacking record than Swansea according to expected goals.
While a brutal defeat away at Huddersfield was surprising to most, it was the type of result that seemed inevitable considering their underlying metrics.
I’m expecting them to continue to maintain a strong backline, though, but when noting their failures to create chances away, Stoke’s hopes of winning this game surely increase.
Consequently, I’m siding with STOKE WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS at 2/1, which seems a sensible play.
Stoke v Swansea score prediction and best bet
- 1pt Stoke Win and Under 3.5 Goals at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Stoke 2-0 Swansea (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1700 GMT on 01/03/21
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