2pts Bournemouth Asian handicap (-1) at 21/20 (bet365)
2pts Milos Kerkez to commit 2+ fouls at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Milos Kerkez to commit 3+ fouls at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
This could get ugly for honourable Russell Martin - unwavering in his approach.
His side make the short trip across the south coast where a clash in styles looks bound to suit the visitors.
Southampton are one of three Premier League teams with a solitary point this term and time-and-time again their undoing has proven to be Martin’s stubbornness, unwavering allegiance to playing out from the back.
So, what happens when you play one of the best pressing sides in the division?
Only Tottenham (42) have completed more tackles in the final third than BOURNEMOUTH (34). Combine that with the fact Southampton top the charts for errors leading to goals (4) and leading to shots (6) and things begin to look bleak for the visitors.
Taking Bournemouth on the ASIAN HANDICAP (-1) appeals with the added security of stakes returned if Bournemouth win by one goal.
Although Southampton have played well at times this term, the style of play is the root of the issue and their wasteful finishing and poor defending does not help.
The Saints rank third for xGA and fifth for ‘big chances’ (xG greater than 0.35) missed. Most worrying of all though, they have generated an xG of 7.1 yet only scored twice, which is the fewest in the division, losing to-nil in all-bar-one of their league games.
Bournemouth should have little issue in outscoring the Saints on Monday.
Tyler Dibling has been one of few positives for the Saints.
The 18-year-old scored against Ipswich on his second top-flight start and has been a pain for opposition left-backs in both his starts to date, drawing four fouls in each.
Diogo Dalot committed four fouls against Dibling and Leif Davies committed two.
MILOS KERKEZ should be the man tasked with containing him, he has committed at least one every game this term and his prices TO COMMIT 2+ and 3+ appeals Monday.
Although they are not currently priced, it will be worth keeping an eye out for Player Foul Matchup markets on Sky Bet or Paddy Power. I’ll be waiting for Kerkez’s price to commit 1+, 2+ and 3+ fouls on Dibling.
Andoni Iraola doesn’t have any fresh injury concerns from the side which lost 3-0 at Anfield, Tyler Adams is the only player unavailable for the hosts.
The Bournemouth boss may still opt to shuffle his deck with Adam Smith potentially coming in at right back and Marcos Senesi in central defence.
The attacking quartet of Marcus Tavernier, Justin Kluivert, Antoine Semenyo and Evanilson should remain intact.
As for the visitors, Martin could also name an unchanged side from the one that earned its first point in the last game.
This would see Ben Brereton Diaz settle for a spot on the bench again with Ryan Fraser and Dibling preferred on the flanks and Cameron Archer upfront.
Bournemouth: Kepa; Smith, Zabarnyi, Senesi, Kerkez; Cook, Christie; Semenyo, Kluivert, Tavernier; Evanilson.
Southampton: Ramsdale; Sugawara, Harwood-Bellis, Bednarek, Taylor; Lallana, Downes, Fernandes; Dibling, Archer, Fraser.
Odds correct at 1340 BST (27/09/24)
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