Southampton v Wolves tips: Premier League preview and best bets
Southampton host Wolves in the first Super Sunday clash, with both sides looking to kick start their season. Jake Pearson previews the match, picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts 40+ Booking Points at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
Southampton lost to Everton on the opening weekend of the season, despite taking the lead, but they are unbeaten since that defeat, drawing each of their four Premier League matches as well winning two Carabao Cup matches – one by eight goals and one via a penalty shoot-out.
Given the Saints have faced three of last season’s top six already this term, a return of four points is hardly catastrophic.
In fact, it is one point more than Wolves have managed, Bruno Lage’s men winning one but losing the other four.
The post-Nuno era at Wolves has started inauspiciously, the team playing well on the whole but lacking cutting edge higher up the pitch, demonstrated by the fact that they have actually created the third-most chances in the league this season according to Expected Goals For (xGF).
In reality though, they have scored the joint-fewest goals so far this season, and while there is every possibility that eventually they will begin to put away the good chances they are creating, there is also an equally viable possibility that their creation rate drops off.
Southampton did a good job of keeping Manchester City at bay last weekend, limiting Pep Guardiola’s men to just one shot on target, and Wolves may struggle to continue creating at the rate they have been against Ralph Hasenhüttl’s high-energy, central press.
An intriguing match-up
This may not be the greatest game of football in terms of open, expansive play, but it should be tactically fascinating.
Wolves have been notably more adventurous under Lage, but that leaves plenty of opportunities for Southampton to adopt their frenetic, positive, defend-from-the-front style, putting the Wolves midfield under constant pressure, similar to the way Brentford did last weekend – two of Brentford’s three midfielders recording the most tackles in the match.
Ruben Neves was also the most fouled player on the Wolves team, which demonstrates exactly how Brentford targeted that area of the pitch.
Southampton already play in this way, so it would not be a surprise to see them go after Neves and Joao Moutinho, and while that will certainly have connotations as far as the full-time result is concerned, it also leads us nicely onto our best bet.
Mark your card
During the Wolves v Brentford match, a total of eight yellow cards (including the two received by Shandon Baptiste) were awarded, four per team, and that is not the first Wolves game this season to see a high card count.
No team have been awarded more yellow cards than Wolves this season (13), while the 14 their opponents have amassed is also the most in the division.
Southampton aren’t too far behind either, averaging two cards per game this term, while their opponents have averaged 1.8.
Both sides are well above the league average for cards per game, and that is no real surprise when taking into account their playing styles.
Wolves boast a combative midfield, while Southampton have given away the third most fouls in the division this season. Add in the running power of Adama Traore, and it isn’t too difficult to see this being a card-heavy affair.
Also worth mentioning is the fact that referee Darren England has dished out 13 yellow cards and one red already this season, from just two games, including Wolves v Brentford.
That gives him by far the highest average in the league, and though the sample size is small, he also held the fifth highest yellow card per game average last season.
Only three of the ten fixtures involving these two this season have dipped under four yellow cards, which makes the 10/11 available with Sky Bet about 40+ BOOKING POINTS very appealing, particularly when a couple of other firms have already reassessed their position on this particular market, cutting the price much shorter.
Southampton v Wolves best bets and score prediction
- 2pts 40+ Booking Points at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Southampton 1-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1040 BST (24/09/21)
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