Southampton welcome Shrewsbury in their FA Cup encounter on Tuesday and Tom Carnduff has found a best bet at a huge 18/1.
Football betting tips: FA Cup
1pt Aaron Pierre to score anytime at 18/1
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Southampton v Shrewsbury
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 2
- Match odds: Home 1/4 | Draw 9/2 | Away 9/1
A delayed FA Cup third round fixture taking place just days before the fourth round begins as Shrewsbury travel to Southampton, having not played since a 1-0 victory over Blackpool on December 29 due to a Covid outbreak.
It led to worrying news regarding manager Steve Cotterill, who has been in intensive care. Thankfully, he is on the mend according to assistant manager Aaron Wilbraham and we will hopefully see him back in the Shrewsbury dugout soon.
In normal circumstances, we could make a case for Shrewsbury holding real potential to upset the odds and progress - they have been on a great run following Cotterill's appointment at the end of November. It's important that we don't let the table deceive us when it comes to this Salop side. Much has improved since the Sam Ricketts era and I genuinely would not be surprised if the found a way to close the 12-point gap between themselves and sixth and make the play-offs at 25/1.
That's for the long term. In the short term, it will be tough facing this Southampton team, even after making expected changes. It's been a duo of Wilbraham and academy manager David Longwell taking training and preparing the team, and whatever happens on Tuesday night, they deserve a tremendous amount of credit for being able to do just that under what are incredibly difficult circumstances. Wilbraham revealed that they haven't been able to use the fitness coach or the goalkeeping coach and preparation for this could hardly have been worse.
The visitors do have a regular squad to pick from with Wilbraham claiming that they have all returned in 'really good shape' after the shutdown. That could mean involvement for AARON PIERRE, and even with Southampton being so heavily fancied to win this, a changed side could present the Shrews with an opportunity to strike from set-pieces.
Pierre sits in the top-ten for aerial duels won among Sky Bet League One centre-backs this season. He's unsurprisingly at the top-end of Shrewsbury's statistics in this area, and for a team who have scored 11 from set-pieces compared to eight in open play, it could be key on Tuesday. Only Hull have scored more from free-kicks and corners.
Pierre has four on his tally this season and the 18/1 on a goal anytime looks a tad too generous when we factor in Southampton changes - the same can be said for any price at 12/1 or above.
We already know the Saints will be without Jannik Vestergaard and they may well look to rest Jan Bednarek. Looking at cup selection in the past, that is a real possibility and it removes their two biggest threats in the air. Based on Ralph Hasenhuttl's pre-match comments, we can expect a changed Saints XI.
"It will be a mixed group tomorrow," he said. "Some guys who have to play, because there are not a lot of alternatives, and some young guys will have to step in and show what they have shown in the sessions: that they are developing their game and deserve to get a chance to play."
That leaves the question of who will be able to match Pierre's aerial ability in attacking situations and the answer in nobody. This is a player who has had one shot in each of his last seven appearances. In fact, he has seen at least one effort towards goal in 15 of his 19 League One games this season.
Set-pieces haven't been a major problem for Southampton in the Premier League but squad selection will likely leave them vulnerable in this area. If Pierre is involved from the start as expected, he has every chance of scoring at some point across the 90 minutes even if Shrewsbury do ultimately bow out.
Score prediction: Southampton 3-1 Shrewsbury (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Southampton v Shrewsbury best bets
Opta facts
- Southampton have won their two FA Cup matches against Shrewsbury Town, winning 4-1 in the fourth round in 1952/53 and 2-0 in the first round in 2010/11.
- Shrewsbury have never won away at Southampton in nine previous attempts in all competitions (D2 L7).
- Southampton are unbeaten in their last 30 home FA Cup matches against sides from a lower division (W21 D9) since losing 2-1 to Barnsley in March 1985.
- Shrewsbury Town have lost 12 of their 13 away FA Cup matches against top-flight opponents (D1).
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (18/01/21)
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