Southampton v Leicester tips: Premier League preview and best bets
Southampton host Leicester City on Wednesday evening and Jake Pearson has previewed the fixture, picking out two best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Leicester to win at 2/1 (William Hill)
1pt Under 2.5 Goals at 11/10 (General)
After going on a run of four matches unbeaten in the Premier League, Southampton now find themselves on the back of successive defeats and slipping back towards the relegation zone.
If a week is a long time in politics, then a fortnight could end up being an eternity in football, as far as the Saints are concerned at least.
A defeat to then bottom-of-the-table Norwich was followed by a 4-0 hammering at the hands of Liverpool on Saturday, and now they face a Leicester side who seem to have finally clicked into gear.
Taking zero points from three games is a recipe for disaster, particularly when you are just five points clear of the bottom three, and that is becoming a very real prospect for Ralph Hasenhüttl’s men.
Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Wednesday
TV channel: Amazon Prime Video
Southampton 11/8 | Draw 5/2 | Leicester 15/8
After going three league matches without a win, Leicester have now won their last two fixtures in all competitions, beating Legia Warsaw to leap from bottom to top of their Europa League group, before putting four past Watford to take them just five points off the top-four in the Premier League.
What a difference a couple of good results can make then, with Brendan Rodgers’ men now looking firmly up the table with hopes of putting pressure on the likes of West Ham, Arsenal and Wolves.
It is intriguing then that Southampton have been priced up as the favourites to win this match, Leicester available at a bigger price than they were away at West Ham (9/5), Brentford (13/8) and Leeds (13/8).
In fact, Southampton being priced up on the short side is not an isolated incident as far as this season is concerned. Backing the Saints to level stakes in every match this term would have seen you make a loss of six and a half points at the average closing price.
Hasenhüttl’s men are clearly being overvalued by the layers, and it appears to have happened again, with a price of 2/1 about a LEICESTER WIN very appealing.
It is also worth noting that only Norwich have scored fewer Premier League goals than Southampton this season, with Saints matches averaging just 2.23 goals per match, the third lowest in the division.
Only games involving Wolves, Brighton and Arsenal have seen UNDER 2.5 GOALS land on more occasions than games involving Southampton, with five of the six games played at St Mary’s also seeing two or fewer goals.
With Southampton home matches averaging just 1.5 goals per match, a price of 11/10 about this game seeing fewer than three goals is worth getting on side.
A case can be made the other way considering the vast amount of goals generally seen in Leicester matches, but there is reason to believe the Foxes have been fortunate to have scored as many times as they have – their expected goals for (xGF) tally sitting at 2.4 lower than their actual goals tally.
Southampton are a difficult team to play against as a rule – there are of course one or two exceptions (Southampton 0-9 Leicester, for example) – but the last three meetings between these two have ended with less than three goals scored, and odds-against for that to happen again is worth backing.
Southampton v Leicester best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Leicester to win at 2/1 (William Hill)
- 1pt Under 2.5 Goals at 11/10 (General)
Score prediction: Southampton 0-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (29/11/21)
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