Sporting Life
Argentina and Brazil are in World Cup qualifying action in the early hours of Friday morning
Argentina and Brazil are in World Cup qualifying action in the early hours of Friday morning

South America World Cup qualifying tips: Paraguay v Argentina; Uruguay v Colombia; Venezuela v Brazil

By Jake Osgathorpe
07:13 · FRI October 08, 2021

South America continues its World Cup qualifying campaign in the early hours of Friday morning, with Argentina and Brazil both in action. Jake Osgathorpe shares his best bets.

Football betting tips: South America World Cup qualifying

2pts Argentina to win and Under 3.5 Goals v Paraguay at 6/5 (Sky Bet)

1.5pts Brazil to win to nil v Venezuela at 11/10 (Mansion Bet)

1pt Both Teams to Score in Uruguay v Colombia at 13/10 (Mansion Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Paraguay v Argentina

Paraguay beat Venezuela in their final game of three during the September international break, and that was a big win for their hopes of qualifying for Qatar, as it moved them within two points of fourth placed Ecuador.

They are a tough watch though, creating very few chances on a regular basis, generating an average of less than 1.0 xGF per game through their nine matches, scoring just nine times.

La Albirroja aren't bad defensively though, allowing 11 goals in their nine games and conceding 1.32 xGA per game, with it being their defence that their qualification hopes rest upon.

Argentina are in town though, and they are flying, winning all of their last eight competitive matches and heading into this game unbeaten in 22 international matches.

The Copa America champions look excellent at both ends of the pitch, with Lionel Scaloni looking to have done an excellent job to turn their fortunes around after the 2018 World Cup.

They rank as the best attacking team in South American qualifying according to xGF, and the second best defensive team according to xGA, so it is hard to see anything other than a win for La Albiceleste.

Backing ARGENTINA TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS therefore appeals.

Argentina have won 12 of their last 17 internationals, and nine of those wins have seen Under 3.5 Goals, so the 6/5 available looks a cracking bet.

Score Prediction: Paraguay 0-2 Argentina (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

WHAT IS EXPECTED GOALS? USE xG TO INCREASE PROFITS IN FOOTBALL BETTING

Uruguay v Colombia

These two teams are in the midst of transitions, and aren't the same sides we have seen in recent World Cup's.

Uruguay are attempting to shift from a low-blocking, counter-attacking side to one who dominate the football with the integration of technically gifted midfielders.

Colombia possess excellent talent in attacking areas, but are really struggling for defensive stability, shown by them scoring and conceding 16 goals in nine qualifying games to date.

Uruguay's last three qualifiers all saw BOTH TEAMS SCORE, while seven of Colombia's last eight have seen both sides hit the back of the net.

Edinson Cavani will be involved for Uruguay, who will likely see this as must-win given they play Argentina and Brazil in this break too, so expect this to be an open game with both creating chances against defences that look vulnerable.

Score Prediction: Uruguay 1-1 Colombia (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Venezuela v Brazil

Venezuela prop up South American qualifying after nine matches, having collected four points while scoring just five goals, conceding 15.

Brazil, who have won all eight of their qualifiers to date, are in town, and it is really hard to see anything other than an away win.

Their last international break was marred by the scenes in their game against Argentina, where health officials attempted to arrest some Argentina players, leading to the game being postponed.

This time around, Premier League players are allowed to travel and participate in qualifying matches. Alisson and Ederson are available and selected, as are Thiago Silva, Fabinho, Fred, Gabriel Jesus and Raphinha.

It is a strong Brazil side, and looking at their record, BRAZIL TO WIN TO NIL looks a runner in this game.

Seven of their eight qualifying wins have come with a shutout, as did four of their six wins in the Copa America, showing that Brazil are an elite defence.

Score Prediction: Venezuela 0-2 Brazil (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

South America World Cup Qualifying best bets

  • 2pts Argentina to win and Under 3.5 Goals v Paraguay at 6/5 (Sky Bet)
  • 1.5pts Brazil to win to nil v Venezuela at 11/10 (Mansion Bet)
  • 1pt Both Teams to Score in Uruguay v Colombia at 13/10 (Mansion Bet)

Odds correct at 1130 BST (06/10/21)

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