Solihull Moors v Grimsby tips: National League promotion final best bets and preview
Solihull Moors and Grimsby head to the London Stadium for the National League promotion final. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
Football betting tips: National League
1pt Luke Waterfall to score in 90 minutes at 12/1 (bet365)
The domestic football season stretches into June as Solihull Moors meet Grimsby in the National League's Promotion Final at West Ham's London Stadium on Sunday.
The Mariners were involved in a thrilling 5-4 victory over Wrexham in their last contest while Solihull had little issue in getting past Chesterfield in the end with a 3-1 win at home.
As expected, Moors take favouritism here but Grimsby have demonstrated their ability to get results against teams around them in the table. With the quality both possess in attack, it could be another great game for the neutral.
Looking at the regular season, only one side scored in both halves more than Grimsby (15 games) across the course of the campaign. That team was Solihull - who netted in 22 of their 44 outings.
Both also did it in seven away games - the joint-highest in the league - so they will have little issue in adapting to new surroundings as they head to a Premier League stadium.
Paul Hurst's men finished the season with the lowest PPDA (passes per defensive action) of any team in England's fifth tier whereas Solihull were at the opposite end of the scale at 10.42. We can expect to see the Mariners looking to win the ball back when out of possession.
Another strong area for Grimsby is their ability to score from set-pieces. That game against Wrexham saw multiple goals from corners, free-kicks and *really* long throw-ins. Jordan Cropper being able to throw the ball the length of the half is a massive threat.
With this in mind, I'm surprised to see a price of 12/1 available on LUKE WATERFALL TO SCORE ANYTIME. The Grimsby centre-back has eight goals on his tally this season.
That's right. He's a centre-back and he has scored eight times. Two of those came in the 5-4 win against Wrexham and balls into the box will cause chaos at various points of the contest.
Grimsby will want to use these opportunities to find the net and they've proven throughout the campaign that they are a strong set-piece side at this level. They have the highest percentage of corners ending in a shot in the National League (38.6%) - credit to D5Football on Twitter for that one.
While Solihull aren't the most vulnerable at set-pieces, Grimsby's ability at corners combined with the fact they have such a dangerous long throw-in will mean that Waterfall will have chances to find the net.
He's averaged 1.2 shots and 0.13 xG per game this season. Considering his position on the pitch it just further highlights how much they try and utilise any set-piece situation. A price of 12/1 seems too generous.
National League promotion final best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Luke Waterfall to score in 90 minutes at 12/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Solihull Moors 2-2 Grimsby (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 0910 BST (02/06/22)
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