Sky Bet EFL: Match previews and best bets for fixtures on Saturday December 14
After getting a full house of winning tips in the Sky Bet EFL last weekend, Tom Carnduff is back with four best bets for the latest action.
Recommended bets
1pt Jed Wallace to score anytime in Derby v Millwall at 22/5
1pt Barnsley to win and over 2.5 goals in the match at 14/5
1pt James McClean to score anytime in Stoke v Reading at 13/2
1pt Peterborough (-2 handicap) to beat Bolton at 3/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Derby v Millwall
Gary Rowett returns to one of his former clubs and will fancy his chances of victory as Millwall travel to Derby.
Millwall picked up another away victory when they somewhat surprisingly got the better of Bristol City in midweek. This side no longer possess the 'home-only' feel and will believe they can get points anywhere in the league.
Derby meanwhile continue to stumble their way through the campaign and find themselves significantly behind last season's side that reached the play-off final.
The Rams are now four games without victory - picking up just two points from their last possible 12.
Their home form prior to that run had been good. They've lost just once in front of their own fans this season but will be slightly nervous of defeat heading into this one.
With Wayne Rooney set to arrive as part of the playing staff in January, the intended reason of bringing him in to aid a promotion push is likely to turn into one where they look to avoid a relegation battle.
Even if Rooney was on the pitch on Saturday, you wouldn't back against Jed Wallace picking up the man of the match award based on his current form.
Wallace starred in that victory at Ashton Gate with a goal to his name. That took his direct goal involvement tally to 13 for the season - a great return over 19 games.
He's demonstrated that ability to strike from various situations this season and it's difficult to argue against him not being able to score again here.
A price of 22/5 is very generous considering his record this season and the form he'll carry into this game following that performance on Tuesday night.
Best bet: Jed Wallace to score anytime at 22/5
Opta facts
- Derby have lost their last two league matches against Millwall, last losing three in a row in January 2006.
- Millwall are looking to win consecutive away league matches against Derby for the first time since November 1992.
- Derby have lost just two of their 22 league games at Pride Park in 2019 (W12 D8), with the Rams going unbeaten in their last nine Championship matches on home soil (W5 D4).
- Millwall will be aiming to make it seven Championship games without defeat for the first time since January-April 2018 (a run of 17).
- Excluding own goals, Derby County are the only Championship side to have had all of their goals scored by British players this season.
- Millwall’s Jed Wallace has assisted a goal in each of his last four Championship appearances, also scoring last time out against Bristol City.
Barnsley v QPR
Barnsley remain bottom of the Sky Bet Championship table, but results have started to pick up since Gerhard Struber took over as their head coach.
The Tykes gained a point in midweek as they drew with Reading, making it four points from a possible six in their last two home encounters.
This week sees them come up against a QPR side who are striving for consistency despite possessing obvious talent. They have won their last two though and remain in the play-off hunt.
Against a Barnsley side intent on attack though, that mini-run should come to an end in South Yorkshire.
The home side are likely to be one of those teams that sits high in the over 2.5 goals league by the end of the season. 12 of their 21 games this season have seen three or more goals and that trend should only continue.
The 1-1 draw with Reading was a surprisingly low score considering the opportunities on goal. There were a total of 14 shots on target, eight in the favour of Barnsley, but only two goals scored.
The Tykes' expected goals stood at 2.03 in the end, compared to 1.01 for Reading. Not only were they getting shots on goal, they were getting them from dangerous areas of the pitch.
The home side are floating around the 7/4 mark as a general price for victory, but it's worth getting that extra value and taking the 14/5 on a home win with three or more goals.
Best bet: Barnsley to win and over 2.5 goals in the match at 14/5
Opta facts
- Barnsley have lost eight of their last 10 league matches against QPR (W1 D1 L8), including their most recent meeting in February 2018.
- QPR are winless in two away league visits to Barnsley (D1 L1) since winning three in a row between 2010 and 2014.
- Following their opening day victory against Fulham (1-0), Barnsley have won just one of their 20 Championship matches since (D7 L12).
- QPR will be aiming to win three consecutive Championship games without conceding for the first time since October 2018.
- Only West Brom (17) have won more points from losing positions than QPR (12) in the Championship this season.
- No player has scored more Championship goals this season without registering a single assist than Barnsley’s Cauley Woodrow (8 goals, 0 assists).
Stoke v Reading
Stoke returned to winning ways in midweek with a comfortable 3-0 victory over fellow strugglers Luton.
I still maintain the view that the Potters will avoid relegation at the end of the season and should finish in mid-table under Michael O'Neill's guidance.
They look good value for victory here against a Reading side who haven't hit their potential this season and will likely finish a mile away from the play-off places.
A player I've tipped up before is James McClean and it's a surprise to see such a big price available on him scoring anytime in this contest.
McClean is clearly enjoying life under O'Neill and playing in the left-wing role. He grabbed the first goal in that victory over Luton and assisted one of Joe Allen's two efforts.
His performances across their previous four games have been fantastic. The away defeat at Hull is the one where you could argue he failed to make an impact, but the showings around that have been more than impressive.
Stoke are likely to go for the 4-3-3 formation that has been one of the two preferred formations for O'Neill since he took the job. It's a system that brought success last time out and is best suited to their current playing squad.
There continues to be an attractive price on McClean netting and this encounter sees 13/2 the best on offer. That's more than generous value for a player in great form.
Best bet: James McClean to score anytime at 13/2
Opta facts
- Stoke City are unbeaten in their last five matches against Reading in all competitions (W1 D4) since a 3-1 defeat in April 2006.
- Reading are looking for their first away win against Stoke City since October 2005, drawing two and losing one since then in all competitions.
- Stoke have lost just one of their last 10 home league games during the month of December (W7 D2), with that defeat coming against West Ham in the Premier League back in 2017 (won each of their four such games since that defeat).
- Reading are winless in their last 13 league games during the month of December (D6 L7), since a 3-1 victory away against Sunderland back in 2017.
- Stoke City have made 57 changes to their starting line ups in the Championship this season, only Charlton (60) have made more in the division.
- Reading’s Lucas Joao (5) has been directly involved in more goals as substitute than any other Championship player this term (1 goal & 3 assists for Reading, 1 goal for Sheff Weds).
Peterborough v Bolton
Bolton were our outright tip for relegation this season at a near even money price and they currently find themselves 15 points adrift of safety.
They had started to win games in October but their good run of form came to a crashing halt when they were hammered 7-1 away at Accrington.
That was the fifth occasion this season where they've conceded five or more goals in an away game - and there's a real possibility of that tally hitting six as they travel to face Peterborough.
Posh were fancied as Sky Bet League One winners and remain in touch with Wycombe at the top. They may be eight points behind but there's a long way to go until May and they'll back themselves to close that gap as time progresses.
An eye-catching trait of this Peterborough side is their quality in attack. No side comes close to their 42 goals scored in the league this season and 24 of those have come in front of their own supporters.
They also possess a strong defence having only conceded nine at home. Darren Ferguson's men have beaten the likes of Sunderland, Rochdale and Accrington by at least three goals margins and the 3/1 price on them to do the same here is appealing.
Ivan Toney and Mohamed Eisa are battling each other for the top goalscorer accolade in the division while Marcus Maddison continues to impress in the attacking midfield positions.
That trio have combined for a total of 39 goals already this season and they'll back themselves to add to that against a team in Bolton's position.
Best bet: Peterborough (-2 handicap) to beat Bolton at 3/1
Opta facts
- Peterborough have won three of their last four home league games against Bolton (L1), winning the last two.
- Bolton will be hoping to secure consecutive league victories against Peterborough for the first time since January 1988.
- Peterborough have won six of their nine home league games this season (D2 L1), with their only defeat in League One on home soil coming on the opening day against Fleetwood.
- Bolton have only suffered one defeat in their last five league games (W3 D1) and did take the lead in that only loss at Accrington, before going down to 10 men and losing 1-7.
- Peterborough duo Mohamed Eisa and Ivan Toney sit joint-top of the League One scoring charts this season, with 13 each. In fact, those two combined (26) have scored more league goals than 14 of the other 22 sides in the division so far.
Odds correct at 1325 GMT (12/12/19)
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