Tom Carnduff takes a look at the weekend's Sky Bet EFL action, with a range of markets explored across the three divisions.
Recommended bets
2pts Leeds -3 corner handicap v QPR at 6/5
2pts Rochdale to beat Bristol Rovers at 17/10
1pt Eoin Doyle to score two or more goals in Swindon v Walsall at 13/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Leeds v QPR
Leeds will be looking to return to winning ways following back-to-back draws and face a tricky test against a QPR side also battling at the top of the Sky Bet Championship table.
Marcelo Bielsa's men remain favourites to win the title and it's no surprise they're 8/15 here, the shortest-priced team in the division this weekend alongside Brentford.
Leeds seem to enjoy playing away from home more than at Elland Road though. Teams are happy to sit further back and look to frustrate Leeds in front of their own fans, while they feel obliged to attack more when they are the home side.
One thing that has led to though is a high corner tally for the Whites. Their last home contest against Birmingham saw them take seven more corners than their opponents, while it was five more than Derby.
Nobody has been able to take more corners at Elland Road than Leeds this season, highlighting Bielsa's intent on attack and their reliance on wide play.
Corner handicaps are varying with the most attractive out there currently -3 which is a price of 6/5. That looks a generous margin given their form in this area, and the opponent, but they would be fancied to cover a -4 spread too.
Bielsa revealed in his pre-match press conference that Patrick Bamford has an ankle problem which means Eddie Nketiah is all but certain to start on Saturday.
The Arsenal loanee has five on his tally in all competitions, despite being limited largely to appearances from the bench, and his best price of 7/5 for a goal could also be worth considerating.
Here though, with the price available in the corner markets, the handicap is the best bet.
Best bet: Leeds on the -3 corner handicap at 6/5
Opta facts
- Leeds have won their last two home league matches against QPR, winning 2-0 in May 2018 and 2-1 in December 2018.
- QPR won two of their three games against Leeds in all competitions in 2018-19, beating the Whites in the FA Cup in January and the Championship in February.
- Leeds’ home games have seen just eight goals scored in the Championship this season, fewer than any other side (5 for, 3 against).
- Only Leeds and West Brom (14 points) have won more away points in the Championship this season than QPR (12 points).
- Leeds’ last four home league wins have all been 1-0 wins – prior to this, only four of their previous 25 home league wins had been 1-0 victories.
- QPR’s Eberechi Eze has been involved in 10 Championship goals this season (6 goals, 4 assists) – one more than in his previous two seasons combined (6 goals, 3 assists).
Rochdale v Bristol Rovers
Into Sky Bet League One and the eye-catching outright price for the weekend's action comes at Spotland where Rochdale take on Bristol Rovers.
The home side can be found at a best price of 17/10 to secure victory, 8/5 as a general marker, which looks fantastic value considering their form heading into this one.
Rochdale are pushing themselves up the table following a slow start of sorts with three wins in their last four. They may have been beaten by Oxford last time out but their recent home form provides promise with two wins in two.
Dale remain fairly low down the home charts because of their poor early form, but the fact they have only lost two of their seven shows they are a difficult side to beat when playing in familiar surroundings.
Combine that with Rovers' poor recent form and the price on that home win looks even more attractive. They are now winless in their last three, losing two of those games.
Their away form has also left a lot to be desired. Four of their six on the road have seen them depart empty-handed, their last three away defeats all by a scoreline of 2-0.
Favouritism should really be with the home outfit here in a contest between two teams sat in mid-table.
Best bet: Rochdale to win at 17/10
Opta facts
- Rochdale have lost just one of their last 13 home games in all competitions against Bristol Rovers (W7 D5), keeping clean sheets in each of their last four.
- Bristol Rovers have failed to score in four of their last five league encounters with Rochdale, including both matches in League One last season.
- Rochdale are looking to win three straight home league games for the first time since they won 10 consecutive matches at Spotland between September and December 2016.
- Bristol Rovers have won two of their last three away games in League One (L1), as many victories as in their previous 11 on the road (D5 L4).
- Only against Gillingham (6) and Chesterfield (7) does Rochdale’s Ian Henderson have more league goals than against Bristol Rovers (5) – he has scored twice and assisted once in his last three games against the Gas.
Swindon v Walsall
Swindon are currently enjoying their Sky Bet League Two campaign, and victory here could move them into the automatic promotion spots.
This weekend sees them come up against a Walsall side who are horrendously out of form. They've lost their last five, conceding at least two goals in each of those games, and are set for a difficult afternoon again.
Town's home form has been ok so far but they'll acknowledge it could be better. They've won 50% of the games in front of their own supporters which includes a 1-0 win over Stevenage last time out at the County Ground.
Swindon are floating about at shades of odds-on and are one selection to consider for the weekend accumulators, but the goalscorer markets provide particular appeal here with striker Eoin Doyle in red-hot form.
He has 13 goals in 15 League Two games this season, an excellent return when you consider that he is on loan from Bradford and arrived at the club this summer.
It's no surprise to see a goal anytime here is near enough even money, but backing a multi-goal game comes out at 13/2 which is well worth investigating.
His hat-trick in their last game against Crawley took his tally to four games with more than one goal for the forward. It's an excellent return at this point in the season; a return that other strikers in the division simply can't match.
Walsall's defence is also in desperate need of work. They've conceded at least two goals in their last three games and it's this which could potentially cost them their Football League status.
This looks like a contest that will bring more joy to both Doyle and Swindon, extending his goalscoring run to five games, but rather than take short prices it's worth speculating that he'll again score two or more.
Best bet: Eoin Doyle to score two or more goals at 13/2
Opta facts
- Swindon have won just one of their last seven home league games against Walsall (D4 L2), a 2-1 victory in November 2015.
- Walsall will be aiming to win three consecutive Football League matches against Swindon for the first time since a run of five consecutive victories between August 2000 and September 2005.
- Swindon have won back to back league games without conceding – they last won three on the bounce whilst keeping a clean sheet each time in the EFL back in October 2013, in League One.
- Walsall have conceded two or more goals in each of their last six league games (W1 D0 L5) – they last went on a longer such run in the Football League back in September 1955 (run of 7).
- League Two top goalscorer Eoin Doyle, has netted 13 goals in 13 games for Swindon this season, scoring 50% of their goals (13/26) – the highest percentage of any player in the division.
Odds correct at 1300 GMT (31/10/19)
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