Sky Bet EFL: Match previews and best bets for fixtures on Wednesday November 27
There's games in the Sky Bet Championship on Wednesday night and Tom Carnduff has found two best bets at prices of 2/1 and
Recommended bets
2pts Over 11.5 corners in QPR v Nottingham Forest at 7/4
2pts 50+ booking points in Sheffield Wednesday v Birmingham at 2/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
QPR v Nottingham Forest
QPR's form hasn't been the best in recent weeks, but considering that two of their three defeats came against Fulham and Leeds (both away), it'd be harsh to say that their season is starting to derail already.
Their start to the game against Fulham last time out could have seen that contest turn out completely differently. They struck early, and if we're being honest they could have easily been 3-0 up on the 20-minute mark.
Mark Warburton's men are in need of a win though and they can do that against Nottingham Forest, despite the visitors possessing a decent away record.
The Asian handicap has QPR at -0.25 which indicates how this is viewed as a game that could go either way, as such the 13/10 available on a home win doesn't provide enough appeal.
Instead, corners is where the best bet can be found with this statistic sitting high in recent Forest games.
The visitors' last four league fixtures have seen at least 12 or more corners, while the same can be said for QPR's previous two outings.
There is a variety of prices on this margin being hit again but the 7/4 available is worth taking, with the value still being there if that drops as low as 13/8.
Best bet: Over 11.5 corners at 7/4
Opta facts
- QPR have lost their last two home league meetings with Nottingham Forest – they’ve never lost three in a row.
- The away side has won each of the last three league meetings between QPR and Nottingham Forest.
- QPR have conceded at least twice in each of their last nine league matches – they have only had a longer run once, conceding at least two goals in 10 consecutive games between October and December 1951.
- Nottingham Forest won on their last league trip to London in August against Fulham, last winning back to back league matches in the capital in April 2013.
- QPR striker Jordan Hugill has scored eight goals in 16 league appearances this season – two more than he did for Middlesbrough last season (six goals in 37 apps) and as many as he did for Preston and West Ham in 2017-18 (eight goals in 30 apps).
- Four of Nottingham Forest’s first six Championship goals this season came from set-pieces (3x corner, 1x free-kick), only one of their last 14 have come via this method (1x corner).
Sheffield Wednesday v Birmingham
Forget your Eastenders, move aside I'm A Celebrity, Garry Monk v Pep Clotet is the drama we are all here for this week.
Clotet worked alongside Monk as his assistant at both Leeds and Birmingham before the duo went their separate ways in the summer. Clotet remained in the West Midlands while Monk moved onto Sheffield Wednesday.
Naturally, Monk was asked about their relationship now in his pre-match press conference and his response came as a huge surprise.
"In terms of the, I don’t know what it is, is it interim, caretaker head coach?," he said.
"I’m not sure what his title is, I don’t speak with him.
"I think what’s most important to me when I’m assembling a staff around me is to give them opportunity. You show them complete trust and you hope they repay that trust with hard work and loyalty.
"Sadly not everyone has those values in their character. Some choose to pursue their own opportunities in the worst possible way.
"I think the most important thing for me is you live and you learn.
"I didn’t listen to a lot of people in football circles who warned me about the type of character he is, but, yeah, that’s an error in judgment from myself.
"It was an error in judgment by me, but it’s an error I won’t make in the future."
What would likely be a routine Championship match has had that extra spice added to it. Cards were an appealing avenue to explore prior to the comments, but it's definitely worth backing now.
There will obviously be the desire for both managers to win the contest, both ensuring that their players hold an understanding of that, but the records of these teams prior to Wednesday night show that discipline continues to be a weak point.
The Owls sit second in the table for cards shown this season while Birmingham hold sixth spot. The two have combined for a total of 71 yellows this season alongside three reds.
Combine all this with the fact that Peter Bankes is the referee and all signs point towards a busy night for the main match official.
Bankes is one of the strictest referees in the EFL and all nine games he has overseen this season have brought about at least three yellow cards - that being the 1-1 draw between Wolves and Reading in the Carabao Cup.
Four of those nine have seen five yellow cards, while 50+ booking points have been hit in six games in all leagues. Sky Bet's price of 2/1 on the margin just mentioned being met again here is value worth taking.
Best bet: 50+ booking points at 2/1
Opta facts
- Sheffield Wednesday have won just one point in their last four league matches against Birmingham City (W0 D1 L3).
- Birmingham have managed just one win in their last eight away league matches against Sheffield Wednesday (W1 D3 L4).
- This will be Garry Monk’s first league match against Birmingham since departing the club – he won his last game against them in November 2017, when he was in charge of Middlesbrough.
- Birmingham have picked up just four points from their last eight away league games (W1 D1 L6).
- Sheffield Wednesday have lost just three of their last 22 home league matches (W12 D7 L3) and are unbeaten in five at Hillsborough (W2 D3 L0).
- Birmingham City’s Fran Villalba has created 33 chances in the Championship this season; 12 more than any of his teammates, however, Villalba is yet to record an assist.
Odds correct at 1555 GMT (26/11/19)
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